| March 10, 2005 - Clinton In Tight '08 Race With Giuliani Or McCain, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; No 'Common Ground' On Abortion, Most Americans Say |
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New York Sen. Hillary Clinton would run a very close race for President in 2008 against either former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani or Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.
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| Looking at the 2008 race, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds: |
- Mayor Giuliani gets 44 percent to 43 percent for Sen. Clinton, a statistical tie;
- Sen. McCain has 43 percent to Clinton's 41 percent, also too close to call.
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American voters like Giuliani the most, giving him a 48 - 12 percent favorability rating, with 17 percent mixed and 21 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. McCain has a 35 - 8 percent favorability, with 22 percent mixed and 33 percent who haven't heard enough. Clinton has a 34 - 29 percent favorability, with 19 percent mixed and 17 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
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"It's still three years until New Hampshire and very speculative, but Hillary Clinton is showing she could go 15 rounds against either of two Republican heavyweights, Rudolph Giuliani or John McCain," said Maurice Carroll, Director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
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"Sen. Clinton gets 48 percent of the women's vote against either Republican. But McCain and Giuliani do just as well with men voters."
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| Most American voters are in middle positions on abortion: |
- 19 percent say abortion should be legal in all cases;
- 35 percent say it should be legal in most cases;
- 24 percent say abortion should be illegal in most cases;
- 15 percent say it should be illegal in all cases.
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| On other abortion questions: |
- Voters support 66 - 24 percent a 24-hour waiting period for a woman seeking an abortion;
- Voters favor 75 - 18 percent parental notification before a minor can get an abortion;
- Voters say 75 - 13 percent that so-called "partial birth abortion" should be illegal except when necessary to save the life of the mother.
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It is not possible for advocates on both sides of the abortion issue to find common ground, American voters say 53 - 39 percent.
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"Overall views on abortion tend toward the middle, with 59 percent of American voters saying abortion should be legal in most cases or illegal in most cases. The right- to-life and abortion-on-demand believers at opposite ends of the spectrum poll only in the teens," Carroll said.
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"Still, most American voters doubt that we can find common ground on this issue."
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President George W. Bush has a slightly negative 45 - 48 percent overall approval rating, dragged down by a big negative 28 - 59 percent for his handling of the Social Security issue.
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American voters say 51 - 42 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.
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From March 2 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,534 registered voters nationwide. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.
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The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research.
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For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201
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TREND: If the 2008 election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican for whom would you vote?
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SMONE WLDN'T
HC RG ELSE VOTE DK/NA
Mar 10, 2005 43 44 2 1 10
Feb 2, 2005 43 45 2 2 7
Dec 16, 2004 43 45 3 2 6
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TREND: In general how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
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Very Smwht Smwht Very
sat sat dis dis DK/NA
Mar 10, 2005 8 37 28 26 1 Feb 2, 2005 10 37 25 27 1 Dec 16, 2004 8 35 27 29 1 Jul 24, 2004 9 37 28 25 1 May 26, 2004 8 33 24 34 1 May 5, 2004 10 34 29 26 1 Mar 24, 2004 12 36 27 24 1 Feb 2, 2004 14 35 26 24 1 Jan 26, 2004 15 36 25 23 1 Dec 10, 2003 12 33 27 26 1 Oct 29, 2003 10 38 25 26 1 Sep 17, 2003 12 38 22 28 1 Jul 24, 2003 13 34 27 24 2 Jun 11, 2003 17 38 22 22 1 Apr 17, 2003 19 46 20 14 1 Mar 6, 2003 9 35 28 26 1 Feb 4, 2003 11 36 27 25 1 Nov 13, 2002 12 43 27 17 1 Feb 22, 2002 15 52 21 11 1 Dec 11, 2001 21 47 19 10 3
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TREND: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases? (* All adults)
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Legal Legal Illegal Illegal
All Most Most All DK/NA
Mar 10, 2005 19 35 24 15 6
Dec 15, 2004 16 41 26 13 5
Jul 24, 2004 18 35 27 13 6
May 27, 2004 20 35 26 14 6
Jun 12, 2003* 21 33 24 17 6
Mar 5, 2003* 22 32 24 18 4
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TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
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Right Wrong DK/NA
Mar 10, 2005 42 51 6 Feb 2, 2005 44 50 6 Dec 16, 2004 42 52 6 May 26, 2004 50 44 6 May 5, 2004 48 45 7 Mar 24, 2004 54 39 7 Feb 2, 2004 52 42 6 Jan 26, 2004 52 40 7 Dec 10, 2003 54 40 6 Oct 29, 2003 53 42 6 Sep 17, 2003 58 37 5
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2. Is your opinion of New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 34% 8% 58% 31% 29% 38%
Unfavorable 29 64 7 25 37 23
Mixed 19 16 16 24 20 18
Hvn't hrd enough 17 12 19 19 14 19
REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1
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3. Is your opinion of former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 48% 69% 35% 44% 51% 46%
Unfavorable 12 4 16 14 14 10
Mixed 17 11 22 19 17 17
Hvn't hrd enough 21 15 26 22 17 25
REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1
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4. Is your opinion of Arizona Senator John McCain favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 35% 37% 31% 40% 41% 30%
Unfavorable 8 8 8 9 10 6
Mixed 22 26 20 19 23 21
Hvn't hrd enough 33 26 38 31 25 40
REFUSED 2 3 2 - 1 2
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5. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and Rudolph Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Clinton 43% 6% 76% 41% 37% 48%
Giuliani 44 84 13 44 49 39
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 3 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 2 1
DK/NA 10 7 9 12 9 12
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6. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Clinton 41% 7% 73% 34% 34% 48%
McCain 43 79 15 44 50 36
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 3 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1
DK/NA 13 10 11 18 11 14
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7. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Very satisfied 8% 20% 2% 5% 11% 6%
Smwht satisfied 37 61 18 34 39 34
Smwht dissatisfied 28 12 36 34 24 31
Very dissatisfied 26 5 42 27 24 28
DK/NA 1 2 1 - 2 -
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8. Do you think of Hillary Rodham Clinton more as a liberal, moderate or conservative?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Liberal 48% 75% 34% 41% 53% 43%
Moderate 29 11 40 32 28 29
Conservative 10 4 14 11 7 13
DK/NA 13 10 12 16 11 15
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9. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Legal all cases 19% 10% 26% 20% 16% 22%
Legal most cases 35 26 40 38 35 35
Illegal most cases 24 37 17 22 28 21
Illegal all cases 15 23 11 14 14 16
DK/NA 6 4 6 5 7 4
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10. Do you favor or oppose a 24-hour waiting period for women seeking an abortion before the abortion could take place?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favor 66% 79% 59% 64% 66% 65%
Oppose 24 13 29 26 24 24
DK/NA 10 8 12 10 10 10
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11. Do you favor or oppose requiring parental notification before a minor could get an abortion?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favor 75% 87% 70% 70% 77% 73%
Oppose 18 8 23 20 17 19
DK/NA 7 4 7 10 7 8
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12. Do you think that a specific abortion procedure known as partial birth abortion should be legal or should it be illegal except when necessary to save the life of the mother?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Legal 13% 5% 18% 15% 15% 12%
Illegal except.. 75 85 69 72 73 76
DK/NA 12 10 13 13 12 12
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13. Recently Hillary Rodham Clinton gave a speech to abortion rights supporters in Albany, New York. How much have you heard or read about this speech? A lot, some, only a little, or nothing at all?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
A lot 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 2%
Some 8 11 7 8 6 10
Only a little 16 15 18 15 18 15
Nothing at all 73 70 74 74 72 73
DK/NA - - - - - -
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14. (If heard about speech Q13)Does Hillary Rodham Clinton's speech on abortion make you more likely to vote for her for President, less likely to vote for her for President, or doesn't it make a difference?
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HEARD ABOUT SPEECH Q13.....................
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
More likely 12% 2% 20% 13% 10% 13%
Less likely 19 33 7 17 23 16
No difference 65 62 69 65 64 66
DK/NA 4 3 3 5 3 5
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15. Do you think it is possible that advocates on both sides of the abortion issue will be able to find some common ground or not?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Yes 39% 37% 40% 38% 41% 37% No 53 56 51 55 53 54 DK/NA 8 7 8 7 6 9
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25. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Right thing 42% 80% 16% 37% 48% 37% Wrong thing 51 15 78 56 46 56 DK/NA 6 5 6 7 5 7
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Franks/Condi.
First time I heard that one... You might be onto something. I suggest Frist/? 2008.
I've heard he is dull, but if up against Hillary, he would win.
It used to be Generals that were then Presidents. Now it's Governors. Why not Senators?
Sad to say (And I disagree with the opinion) but Hillary won't win becasue of her gender. Women and Men won't tolerate a woman being the President of the free world.
I think the biggest reason it is so hard for a senator to become elected president is having to defend his voting record. A senator votes on so many bills and amendments that he really may not totally like, but is forced to because the alternative is worse.