Posted on 03/08/2005 10:45:51 PM PST by Gengis Khan
New Delhi, March 8: The $600 billion Indian economy is set to make a huge splash on the international front. Set to expand at a phenomenal 6+ per cent in the near future (8.2 per cent in 2004) the unleashing of the Indian behemoth on an unsuspecting world has governments in the first world worried.
Not that the USA is in for an overnight coup. Considering that the USA GDP is pegged at $11 trillion (2003) it will take India quite a while to overhaul the world leader.
Having realised that their business interests are endangered, numerous agencies in Europe and USA have been commissioned to find out the nature of the threat as well as the deadline when India will start hitting them where it hurts.
From the IMF to America's National Intelligence Council which represents a number of governmental spy agencies including the CIA, to the US Chambers of Commerce representing three million companies and even England's Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown have been forced to plead with their countries' businessmen to start preparing for the "growing strategic threat' to their markets.
While India has already laid the basic foundation for its quantum economic leap, especially in the tech sector, the only thing that is acting as a weight is the fact that India does not have the money to pep up its infrastructure including electricity generation, railways, telecom and highways. In fact, India is set to drive its economic growth on the back of its technology.
Also, India's very low R&D-spend is affecting its desire to spread its wings.
The reason is not that the funds aren't there, the fact is that the money is being directed to unproductive sectors of the economy.
To get its infrastructure up to par with Asian giants like China and perhaps Japan, India needs $150 billion till the year 2015. Not a huge amount by any standards but in an era of countervailing political pressure on the decision-makers for vote garnering and lining their pockets, getting that amount from the greedy hands of the assorted politico-bureaucrat nexus will be difficult.
Anne Krueger, First Dy Managing Director at the International Monetary Fund has even gone to the extent of saying a double digit growth is possible provided Indian politicians can stop bickering and find the right mix of policies to attain that goal.
All said and done, the question in the end is not whether India will rise, the query is actually when the sub-continental giant will reach its place in the Sun.
Expressindia invites you to contribute to this series, you can send your articles on ‘Is it possible for India to become the most developed country by 2050’, in not less than 300 words. We will publish the selected articles on our website. Mail at articles@expressindia.com
Nothing will happen in India unless they can clean up the rampant corruption in every sector of the economy. They need to de-regualte their banking and insurance sector which will show how corrupt their country is. The amount of bad debt written by the banks is well over the GDP of the country.
How about 23 words?:
Yes, but if and ONLY if it whittles all the business regulations down to what Hong Kong had before the Reds took over.
Oh, and follow the implicit recommendations in THIS video: Is America Number One? by John Stossel (which, BTW, shows the economic facts of life in BOTH India AND Hong Kong).
There's not a chance India will become the most developed by 2050. The sheer scale of the project is too large, there are hundreds of millions there who live in staggering poverty.
Right. There isn't a snowball's chance in hell they'll deregulate much of ANYthing.
Even more than that, a large segment of the country is still two generations away from full literacy, and at least three from computer literacy.
The govt was forced to adopt changes in property rights. Most foreign companies learnt their lesson in the 70s when foreign companies who didn't want a majority Indian subsidiary were essentially shut down by the govt. Now they want foreign investments and are making those necessary changes. But, the elephant in the room is the highly corrupt banking sector, which is govt owned and represents a huge subsidy for the govt. We will know the true nature of the economy in India when the banks tell us how much bad debt they are carrying.
Well, then they will stay under the Raj rule. Except now they have their home-grown Raj.
I love the picture. Actually, that scene makes me feel quite comfortable. I bet there's a street vendor nearby selling some awesome tasting samosas. In any case, I'm sure there are parts of India that are nearly indistinguishable from cities in the U.S.
I see nothing has changed. I have lived there for five years in the eighties. I do miss the pakoras though.
We know about China and Japan because the cat is already out of the bag. In India the govt still subdisizes bad debt and everyone is happy. When the govt or the World Bank does an honest audit, that would be interesting.
I hope logistics have improved since then. Infrastructure improvement would help India tremendously.
India seems less threatening than China, at least compared to China. However, India seems to have the capacity to improve its military strength as its economic growth boosts, which may become one of the strong military powers in the world, which US must be aware of. India may also be strong not just in terms of hardware but also software, since it has been of the concentration outsourcing of software programming, and India has has the abilities in mathematics and English. While India and US relations are good at this time, it is uncertain what future relations may be.
The picture probably belongs to a small town somewhere in the relative less developed Northan India (probably Uttar Pradesh my guess).
Econ....India has changes a lot since the 80s. Most importantly the economy has changed, although much of the infrustructure is yet to be built.
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