[It isn't far away now.]
"Okay, I'll bite. What year will that occur in?"
Market share? Could be ten years, could be twenty years.
But the point is, for usability, we're only a couple years away. For IT people like you or me, Linux is already fine for a lot of uses, like mysql, apache. My java IDEs need some more work. But KDE is coming along quite well, like I said, it is about Win98 level.
Linux doesn't have to beat windows to be a success. But given that we are getting progressively less marginal usefullness out of our apps, the idea that Linux won't converge on Windows and beat it in some areas is absurd.