Posted on 03/07/2005 9:42:02 AM PST by robowombat
The Rise of Chinese Military Power Russia in Decline Helps Chinese Military Power Charles R. Smith - December 2, 2004
While many pundits show mock concern that the Russian bear is re-awakening after years of hibernation, the fact is that the former superpower is still in decay.
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently said Russia was working on new nuclear missile systems that "other nuclear powers do not and will not possess." The indication is that Putin is referring to a maneuvering nuclear-tipped missile warhead designed to avoid the latest U.S. anti-missile defenses. The bold words from Moscow are also filled with falsehood.
The U.S. has had a maneuvering warhead missile system since the early 1970s. The U.S. nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles are capable of avoiding interception by the aging Russian A-135 Galosh anti-missile system as well as the newly revamped R-300 and SA-18 Giant anti-missile systems.
Moscow is reliant on an aging nuclear force and is actually trying to find ways to extend the lifetime of many missiles that have long been rendered obsolete.
On November 29, 2004, Russia test-fired the Galosh anti-missile system. The test was hailed as a success by Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov. The A-135 Galosh test was conducted at the Sary-Shagaz military range in Kazakhstan.
According to the Russian military press corps, "the missile accurately hit the training target."
"All the tactical and technical performance characteristics of the missile were confirmed, which enables us to make a positive decision on the extension of the service life of this type of missile systems."
The A-135 Galosh missiles have been in service since the beginning of the 1950s. The missiles are stationed in a ring around Moscow to protect and defend the Russian capital.
The recent test of the A-135 is simply one more indication of the inability of Moscow to improve or update its armed forces.
Russian Decay
For example, last year the Russian air force took possession of one new aircraft. Currently, plans are to stand down over 10 percent of the total Russian armed forces in the next year to save money. The Russian air force is slated to lose squadrons of bombers, fighters and reconnaissance aircraft.
The Russian navy is in an even worse condition. The last major naval exercise conducted by Russia was centered on its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. However, in order to participate, the Russian carrier had to be towed to the exercise area.
In addition, the Russian navy has announced it will retire the last of its Typhoon-class ballistic missile submarines, leaving the service with virtually no strategic missile forces.
On land, the Russian have deployed the new SS-27 Topol M missile, but the total number is very limited, to no more that two dozen. The deployment of the new missile is proceeding at a glacial pace because of high development costs.
Meanwhile, the Russian strategic missile forces have test-launched an aging SS-20 Satan ballistic missile in order to determine if the 30-year-old missile can be extended for another decade. The successful test indicates the Russian missile force will remain reliant on missiles built in the 1970s and 1980s for the next 20 years.
While the Russian military is in severe decay, the Russian defense industry has grown reliant on foreign military sales to stay alive. The reliance on sales to China has greatly improved the Chinese military capability and may very well pose a danger to Russia in the long term.
Chinese Purchases
Russian companies have been working closely with the Chinese air force and the Chengdu aircraft corporation to develop the new J-10 multi-strike fighter. Moscow, however, is not the only nation to help the Chinese air force with its latest jet fighter.
Despite denials, the J-10 design received considerable help from Israel. The J-10 strongly resembles the canceled Israeli Lavi project.
Yet the lion's share of technical help on the advanced J-10 has been provided by Russian firms. The aircraft's power plant is widely reported to be a version of the Saturn-Lyulka Al-31 engine developed for the SU-27 Flanker.
Most defense analysts view the new J-10 as a candidate for large-scale production to replace most of the Chinese air force J-7 (MiG-21), J-6 (MiG-19) and Q-5 jet fighters. The J-10 is also likely to be a major export item for China – in direct competition with Russia.
The Russian fighter firm of MiG is already gearing up to compete with the Chengdu on the international sales market. MiG is reportedly pulling out all the stops to gain a major market share before China can begin full-scale manufacturing of the J-10.
Recent sales by MiG of advance MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters to the African market have reinforced the view that Moscow may have created its own competition in China. The Chinese have reportedly countered by applying deep discounts on exports of the J-7 fighter to African nations.
The Chinese J-7 is an illegal copy of the Russian MiG-21. The export sales of the J-7 are considered to be an area of friction between Moscow and Beijing. The J-7 is popular with many nations that operate the venerable MiG-21 because most of the parts are interchangeable, thus reducing overall maintenance costs.
Russian Missiles for China
Russian design bureaus such as missile maker Raduga, tactical weapons designer Zvezda-Strela and air-to-air producer Vympel have been involved in joint Chinese ventures. Raduga is currently finishing off a deal to provide the Chinese navy with an upgraded version of the 3M-80 Moskit (SS-N-22 "Sunburn") supersonic cruise missile.
The Sunburn is fitted to the Sovremenny-class destroyers sold to the Chinese navy. Raduga is committed to providing China with an extended-range version of the Sunburn, the 3M-80MVE. Raduga is also reportedly working with China to develop a new class of supersonic cruise missiles.
And Raduga is working with China on the Kh-59M anti-radar missile for the Chinese air force. Raduga has provided China with an improved power plant for the strike missile, which increases its range to nearly 200 miles.
Zvezda has also been working with the Chinese air force on its long-range ramjet Kh-31 strike missile. The Zvezda program known as Kitai-Rossikaya (China-Russia) has provided the Chinese air force with an optimized version of the Kh-31.
Meanwhile, China is on the verge of deploying its DH-10 long-range cruise missile. The subsonic missile appears to be in the final stages of development. It is to be deployed on a three-launcher road mobile platform. The DH-10 has a 930-mile range.
Its guidance system is reportedly based on U.S. technology obtained by the Chinese during the Clinton administration, using GPS navigation with electro-optical digital scene mapping for terminal strike.
The fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet empire have been good news for Beijing. The Chinese military has integrated former Soviet weapons technology with advanced Western manufacturing.
The next two decades will see China move from weapons buyer to weapons exporter – in direct competition with the former Soviet military industry. The rise of Beijing's military power and its expanding global ambitions pose a risk to the West and to Moscow.
This has already happened with small arms, machine guns and mortars. The arming and equipping plan for the new Iraqi army i.e. the "Iraqi national Guard' is dependent on purchase of these systems from China through a Jordanian middleman. Other than Russia there is no other source for large quantities of such weapons that are newly manufactured. This is so repulsive to the Pentagon that they have been slow roling the letter of permission to go ahead with the deal for several weeks. US weapons production capability in these areas is so tiny as to be insignificant. I know leading edge and future technologies are our strenghts but having only one location that produces artillery gun tubes in all of the US and a similar posture for other basic military systems doesn't give me or a lot of people around the services a really warm feeling.
chickenstoroostbump
You really wonder what's going thru the Russian's heads. Is the problem that Stalin killed off all the smart Russians, or that they emigrated to the US? They are behaving completely irrational. Maybe it's because of the radiation from Chernobyl.
I wonder haow many people will read this and not even come close to getting it?!?!?!?!?
hmm
ping
But I have no idea if that's a plausible scenario.
i hope that doesn't happen but i m guessing a nuke war would occur. If not I m guessing everyone would help Russia, Europe/US/Japan all would help *i m guessing* because where would china stop and who would be next ...
His treason will haunt us for decades... I wonder if the historians will every fully catalog it?
Thanks for the ping. Yep, the Chinese will be our main foes. They are rattling our cage weekly and watching very closely how we took apart the Taliban and the Baathists. Very closely.
The part about armssales to China sounds pretty accurate,but the portion about Russia's military is atrocious.Russia's only carrier,the Kuznetsov is conventionally powered,not nuke-powered & if im not mistaken,during last year's exercises,It sailed on it's own.The Russians may be retiring their cumbersome Typhoon class subs,but they still have the Delta-4 & Delta-3 class boats in service,so how does that leave their navy with no strategic strike capability????They are also due to induct a new class of SSBNs called the 'Borei' class,which will be armed with a naval variant of the Topol-M.Anyway,the START treaties mandate both superpowers at having an equal number of SSBNs.Plus you have to take into account the fact the Russian SSGNs & Surface ships also carry long-range cruise missiles,which maybe N-tipped.The Russian navy has more or less decided to concentrate on guided missile corvettes & frigates as their principle surface combatants,rather than obsolete Sovremenny clas ships.Anyone who reads the fineprint about Russia's military cutbacks will know that quantity is being dumped for quality.What is the use of having 3000 fighter jets,if your pilots can only train 90 hours an year??Their decision to mothball Mig-29,Mig-27 & TU-22 squadrons has to be seen in that light & focus on better training,induction of PGMs & new cruise missiles.Moreover,the cuts in the ICBM force make sense as a huge chunk of Russian ICBMs are liquid fuelled & hence useless unless you're talking about a first strike & difficult to base on mobile transporters.The Russians are moving towards a flexible concept of both silo launched & road mobile strategic missiles-so one of those assets will have a much higher chance of surviving a first strike.
About Russian armssales to China,China has always got downgraded weaponry from Russia a fact evident in the delay it took for them to get weapons like the Klub SSM.
ping!!!
untenured, the view that China will invade Siberia is an American underground view - mostly projection - American fears Mexico would do that so assume China will do that to Russia. China is traditionaly an isolationist world empire. They prefer payment of tribute over conquest and occupation outside of historic Chinese land. Siberia was never part of China and the land that was in dispute with Russia was border land that has since been clarified and recognized with a treaty.
Russia also has stated that any invasion of Russia proper by conventional forces will be met by massive nuclear retaliation.
Russian ally India would also not take too kindly to Chinese expansion - nor would the EU or America.
So fear of China moving into Siberia is left over Cold War paranoia scenario, IMHO - reflecting more of an American frame of mind than a Chinese one.
Now you're assuming the world has learned from it's mistakes... I think the majority of the world would do exactly what they did in 1937-1940: nothing.....
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