My guess is that in a hundred thousand or so garages around this country, another Bill Gates or Paul Allen or Steve Jobs is puttering around with something. The question isn't, "Will it happen?"....but rather, "What will be the affects when it does happen?"
It won't happen without the other half of the equation, namely money. With VCs distracted by the prospects of overseas investing (China) and the easy money to be made by funding outsourcing efforts, it's a real challenge right now. And, VCs don't fund research.