Even if Wheeler's general interpretation is right, I'm not so sure it means that bin Laden is giving up, just that he is losing.
I still am not convinced Bin Laden is alive.
That last tape of his sounded really phony
and weird.
For example
he seemed to know details about the 'Goat Story'
that did not even appear in the US press.
It seemed to be an odd topic
to be studying
up in the mountains of Waziristan
(or wherever).
(Mark Steyn had a column about that at the time)