Not only would Pat Toomey have defeated Hoeffel, he would have allowed President Bush to carry PA. With Arlen Specter as the GOP Senate candidate, President Bush underperformed in the Lehigh Valley and turnout wasn't as high as it should have in the rest of the "T," and Specter got out the RINO vote in spades in the Philly suburbs (where Kerry/Specter signs were prevalent) and those voters swung the election to Kerry. I think that Bush would have received 51% (instead of the 48.4% he got) had Toomey been the GOP Senate nominee.
I'm not convinced, but we'll never know.
Presidential years tend to bring out voters that usually may not vote. Penn is more Dem than Rep, so more Dems were destined to turnout. In mid terms it's who has the most motivated base. I wish Spectre's challenge had been in a mid term '06 or '02 election.
What does it matter now anyway? Bush won the election! I bet Fast Eddy promised Hafer he would appoint her to Specter's open spot if he does not finish his term.
I disagree.
I don't know what I would have done if I had been a Pennsylvania primary voter, but here is my arguement that, regardless of anything else, this was the best outcome, not only for the party, but for the pro-life movement:
1. Specter, while personally bad on abortion, is decent on judges. Bork aside (who is, in my opinion, a little weird, although I don't think I would have voted against him), Specter has been great. We have Thomas because of him, and he has voted for 100% for Bush's judicial picks. And for all practical purposes, judges make the law on abortion right now. Furthermore, Specter won his race with 0 money from the national party and 0 focus from prominent folks etc.
2. Toomey may have won, but he may have lost. There is no way to be sure, but even if he had won, it would have taken lots of national money and focus. As I already pointed out, Specter took 0. In the meantime:
Burr 52%, Bowles 48%
Murkowski 49%, Knowles 46%
Vitter, 51%, Others 49%
Thune, 51%, Dashle 49%
Martinez 49%, Castor 48%
It seems likely, that had we not been able to dump as much money and focus into these races, we may have lost one, or even two of them. If Toomey had then lost, it would have been a disaster. Had he won, we still would have been down a Senator or two that votes our way on abortion. It would have been even worse had he lost.
Also, imagine had we lost the South Dakota or Florida senate race! Both of those would have been major blows. Knocking off Dashle was huge, and I think Castor is one of the worst, terrorist appeasing losers I've ever seen. It would have terrified me to see her in the Senate.
In the end, I think that focusing on other races was more important, and helped not only the party, but the pro-life cause.