I would be interested in knowing, as well. Lots of scenarios where actions and events might push up the price of oil. But what, indeed, would be the point?
Iran has been making noise lately that they will close the Strait of Hormuz should the world go too far in pressuring them over their nuclear programs. Now that could cause some world wide panic and pain. Here's a quick assessment from our Energy Information Administration's (Department of Energy) World Transit Chokepoints page:
Location: Oman/Iran; connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea
Oil Flows (2003E): 15-15.5 million bbl/d
Destination of Oil Exports: Japan, United States, Western Europe
Concerns/Background: By far the world's most important oil chokepoint, the Strait consists of 2-mile wide channels for inbound and outbound tanker traffic, as well as a 2-mile wide buffer zone. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz would require use of longer alternate routes (if available) at increased transportation costs. Such routes include the 5 million-bbl/d capacity Petroline (East-West Pipeline) and the 290,000-bbl/d Abqaiq-Yanbu natural gas liquids line across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea. Theoretically, the 1.65-million bbl/d Iraqi Pipeline across Saudi Arabia (IPSA) also could be utilized, more oil could be pumped north to Ceyhan (Turkey), and the 0.5 million-bbl/d Tapline to Lebanon could be reactivated.
But, it seems to me, Iran would end up eventually paying the higher price for choking off the straits. Payback might become a bit ferocious.