Posted on 03/02/2005 8:28:48 PM PST by anotherview
Mar. 3, 2005 1:36 | Updated Mar. 3, 2005 5:05
Hizbullah: 'Syria out' doesn't mean 'Israel in'
By KEN SATLOFF
BEIRUT, Lebanon
Israel should have no illusions that the rise of the opposition tide in Lebanon, and even the possible departure of Syrian troops from the country, will smooth a path to warmer relations between Jerusalem and Beirut, Hizbullah officials have warned.
Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom has been at the forefront of a chorus of expectation of a possible dramatic improvement in relations, going so far as to assert in a radio interview on Tuesday that "the only reason that they [the Lebanese] are not at peace with us is because they were occupied by the Syrians."
But in interviews with The Jerusalem Post this week, Hizbullah officials and supporters alike ridiculed that contention, as did more neutral analysts. And the Hizbullah sources also made plain that the organization would resist any effort to force it to disarm.
Hizbullah has attracted growing popularity, from beyond its natural Shi'ite constituency, precisely because it is seen to have forced Israel out of the security zone in south Lebanon in 2000, and continued to preoccupy Israel with its deployment at the border ever since, one Beirut analyst told the Post.
Its battle against Israel, he added, is a crucial source of its legitimacy.
"Hizbullah, nowadays, is seen as more authentically Lebanese than ever before," he said. "And by showing determination in its struggle against Israel, it is attracting a lot of support from people in different religious sects – not only the Shi'ites, but also Maronite Christians, Sunnis and Druse."
In the two-and-a-half weeks since the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri in downtown Beirut galvanized an unprecedented outpouring of popular protest that on Sunday forced the resignation of the pro-Syrian government here, Hizbullah has moved astutely to dodge any possible negative repercussions, and has tried to channel blame away from its Syrian sponsors and toward Israel.
Hizbullah's deputy head, Sheikh Naim Qassem, has determinedly highlighted what he claims were a series of meetings between Hariri and Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah shortly before the assassination – encounters which, he said, underlined the strong, positive relationship between the two. Nasrallah also hurried to condemn the assassination and offered condolences to Hariri's family.
And sidestepping the notion that it might have had anything to do with the killing, widely blamed on Syria, an official in Hizbullah's department of information, attempted instead, in an interview with the Post, to pin the blame on Israel.
"The only party that gains tremendously from the death of Hariri is Israel," he asserted. "Look at the Middle East now: Syria again became a pariah state, and it is being pressured to pull out of Lebanon by the international community... How can anyone say that Syria gained from Hariri's elimination? It's nonsense!"
Analysts here expect Hizbullah to retain its strength, if not grow stronger, even if the Syrians are forced to withdraw their troops within the next few months, as Syria's beleaguered President Bashar Assad has indicated they might.
"There is no way that Hizbullah will just dissolve into thin air after the Syrians pull out," the Beirut analyst said, noting that it enjoys recognition as a significant political player not only in traditional Shi'ite strongholds in the Beirut suburbs and northern parts of the country, but also in other parts of the capital and wider circles. With 12 of the 128 seats in parliament, "Hizbullah today is also one of the most well-organized parties in Lebanon," he added.
It is also – apart from the Syrians and the Lebanese army – the only armed group in the country.
And while many Lebanese now want to see it disarmed as a logical next step after a Syrian military departure – a scenario heartily endorsed by Israel – its officials and supporters are adamant that this is not about to happen.
Last year's UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which demands that Syria pull its forces out of Lebanon, "clearly aims against the continuation of armed resistance," said a young Hizbullah supporter, Hassan Abd al-Ali, interviewed in Martyrs Square in downtown Beirut. "But resistance won't stop until there is no threat from Israel. The weapon of Hizbullah defends Lebanon."
Ali had come to Martyrs Square, at the heart of the elite district restored by Hariri, to visit the murdered leader's grave. Hariri and his six slain bodyguards are buried at the center of the square, which is now the heart of anti-Syrian opposition activism. Surrounded by flowers and candles, the graves draw an endless stream of mourners.
Hizbullah leaders have said that they are ready to engage in a comprehensive dialogue with all the factions and streams in Lebanon for the sake of national unity. "We need to have the parliamentary elections [set for May]," Nasrallah said in a speech late last month. "This process is vital for our country, and we are ready to be as flexible and as understanding as we can."
But officials are adamant that there can be no concessions, indeed no dialogue, on the question of disarmament – an issue which, they know full well, is not a priority for France, the US and other international players who, with the exception of Israel, are currently preoccupied with Syria's possible pullout.
If attempts are made to force it to disarm, Hizbullah officials warned, blood will be shed. "Our weapon is a Lebanese weapon," one stated. "We will not give it up easily."
In his Army Radio interview on Tuesday, Shalom hailed the anti-Syrian protests as "a most important development. It's something we have been hoping for."
He claimed there was "a real wish by the Lebanese people to free themselves from Syrian occupation. I hope freedom from Syrian occupation will give them freedom and independence and the possibility of maybe holding a dialogue with the State of Israel."
Speaking during a visit to Budapest, he stressed that "we have no dispute with Lebanon, no dispute about territory, no economic dispute. The only reason that they are not at peace with us is because they were occupied by the Syrians."
But Lebanese opposition leader Walid Jumblatt told Al-Jazeera he preferred a truce with Israel rather than a peace treaty. "Peace with Israel harms Lebanon. We don't want that," he said.
Assad this week linked a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon to guarantees of an Israeli-Syrian peace deal. "It [a withdrawal from Lebanon] will only happen if we obtain serious guarantees. In one word: peace," he told the Italian newspaper La Repubblica.
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has repeatedly demanded that Syria leave Lebanon, in contrast to some previous leaders, including the late Yitzhak Rabin, who had acquiesced to the Syrian presence as a guarantor of stability in the fractious country.
In failed Mideast talks in the 1990s, it was understood that an Israeli-Syrian peace deal would have to precede an agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Sharon has brushed aside Assad's recent peace overtures, apparently because he is unwilling to pay the territorial price – relinquishing the Golan Heights – at a time when he is set to leave the Gaza Strip and parts of the West Bank.
Israeli commentators said that even if Lebanon were to become independent, there was no guarantee it would rush into a peace deal. Many forces in Lebanon would try to stall such a move, said Martin Kramer, a Mideast analyst at Tel Aviv University.
At best, Lebanon might "exit the circle of hostility," and agree to a long-term arrangement of non-belligerence, he said. Once Syria left, he said, there could be growing pressure to disarm Hizbullah.
But other analysts acknowledged a Syrian exit could also have the opposite result.
"Lebanon could enter a period of instability," warned Itamar Rabinovich, a former negotiator with Syria. "Syria's presence is oppressive, but it also guarantees basic stability."
In renewed political turmoil in Lebanon, Hizbullah could have freer rein to try to disrupt Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts, some commentators said. And that could happen without Syrian being blamed for it.
AP contributed to this report.
"Lebanon could enter a period of instability," warned Itamar Rabinovich, a former negotiator with Syria. "Syria's presence is oppressive, but it also guarantees basic stability."
Actually, Syria's presence guarantees continued terrorism. The idea that people are too stupid to have freedom is so 20th century...
That, sadly, is a very naive view of the Arab world. There is plenty of support for terrorism among the Palestinians still. Besides, Hizbullah is not Palestinian. It is Lebanese Shi'ite.
Um...no. It is the heaviest-armed and the best-funded, but neither the Druze nor the Phalange were ever completely disarmed.
Terrorist Organizations = the Real Islam.
The real Islam is the political wing of Islam--governing by bombs, extortion, and killing and threats. This is the real Islam.
The Islam of living in peace with your neighbors does not exist. It does not exist because that is an Infidel concept. Infidels do not deserve to live on a equal plane with Islam.
What is being said is that the Lebanese will be kept to the Islamic Party Line. Which will be enforced.
Who gives a Shiite what Hezbollah thinks????
So, who does Hizbollah think is going to fund them? I heard that in Iran, some of the workers for the state haven't been paid in 4 months. How long do you think the people of Iran are going to allow that to go on when the mad mullahs are sending millions to finance Hizbollah?
It's all a slow step-by-step process. Hizbullah is mostly a tool of Iran and Syria, and although it has some seats in Lebanon's parliament, Lebanon will go the direction most of its people take it, and that seems away from Syria.
Israel will continue to be a pariah in most of the Arab world, but as we say over here, the natives are getting restless. They want freedom but it will probably take decades until the dust settles.
The US will closely monitor the situation in Lebanon and pressure Syria, and that will make Hizbollah less relevant, until the Israelis have enough of their mortars and blow them away.
The people in Iran have followed their religious leadership for the last 26 years. I don't think it is about to change anytime soon, and anyone who tries to change things there ends up in prison or dead. There are no signs of a widespread uprising and that is what it would take to overthrow the current government.
Iran will go right on funding Hizbullah. Why should Iran be different than, say, Saudi Arabia, who funds Hamas. The Saudi royals are wealthy beyond most people's dreams yet many of their people live in poverty. This is the pattern throughout most of the Arab world.
Depressing, yes, and it needs to change. President Bush has the right idea but it will take time (as in decades) to see that sort of change happen if it ever does.
I must run to work... Continue the discussion without me. Boker tov.
There are only 40 thousand or so Syrian troops, and over a hundred thousand Hizbulla troops there. Syria cannot kill off the opposition in uniform, so I expect the "pullout" is to allow the proxy army to do their dirty work.
"See, we needed to be there..."
Hizballah is just a few, the people are many -- once the people are free of fear they will finish the terrorists off. Look to Iraq for the model.
Yep, I know Hizballah is Syrian backed and Hamas is Iranian backed. Just because the terrorist associate with a particular religious group doesn't mean the group supports them I remind you that the claim Zaqawi is Sunni is not holding up -- the Sunnis are desperately trying to get back in the Iraq political game after their vote boycott fiasco. To further make my point -- David Koresh was Christian -- so what.
Pressure is building on Syria to withdraw, even Russia signed on today. The list of countries calling for withdrawal is lengthening. Hizballah sees what is happening and is likely to try and cut a political deal to try and remain relevant.
The old media just likes labels, the facts don't support them, the old media doesn't care.
So why is Hizbollah based in Syria?
All these groups are the same, all get their money from the same loonies in Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia and any other Islamo-fascist state that support the charade -- and ultimately from you at the pump.
The notion that there is one wit of difference in any of these groups is folly. They all want one thing rule the world.
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