Syria Scrambles to Ease Mounting Pressure

Syria, lately on the losing side of international public opinion, is scrambling to ease mounting pressure against it by sacrificing its allied Lebanese prime minister, turning Saddam Hussein's half-brother over to Iraq and shifting around its troops in Lebanon.

Some analysts say the country is making just enough concessions to keep an attack - by the United States or Israel - at bay and isn't changing its strategy. But it remains in a tough spot with pressure from many sides, and ultimately may have to give up more to buy some space.

Threats, warnings and calls for action are coming on many fronts: from the United States, the United Nations, key ally France and most notably tens of thousands of fed-up Lebanese.

The Iraqi government, meanwhile, accuses Damascus of fanning its insurgency and Israel this week suggested it might strike Syria in the wake of a Tel Aviv suicide bombing it blames on Damascus, which hosts a number of Palestinian factions.

"They are under unprecedented pressure," said Patrick Seale, a British expert on Syria who added Damascus' moves were unlikely to satisfy Washington. "All this is rather too little, too late."

In a huge concession Monday, Lebanon's pro-Syrian parliament resigned - a move that could not have come without Damascus' nod as Lebanese politicians look east for guidance on all major political decisions. Wildly cheering Lebanese immediately began calling for President Emile Lahoud to go next and continued the anti-Syria chants that have marked two weeks of demonstrations.

After months of denying growing Iraqi accusations it was harboring fugitives, Syria handed over Sabawi Ibrahim al-Hassan, No. 36 on the U.S. list of 55 most-wanted Iraqis, on Sunday and 29 other former Baath Party officials.

Imad Fawzi Shueibi, a Syrian political analyst, said Iraq had provided information on where al-Hassan was and his handover had nothing to do with outside pressure: "Syria responded as a kind of good intent to show it doesn't want to contribute to regional instability."

And last week, Damascus announced it would redeploy its troops to eastern Lebanon, closer to its border, in the first significant concession following the spike in anti-Syrian sentiment stemming from the Feb. 14 bomb that killed former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri and 16 others. Lebanese opposition blamed Syria and Lebanon's pro-Damascus government for the attack

The steps appeared aimed at reaching out just far enough to avoid any outside attack.

"They're trying to get some benefits, trying to avoid more pressure from Washington," said Lebanese analyst Sateh Noureddine. "But they are changing their behavior, not their strategy."

Cairo-based political science professor Walid Kazziha agreed, saying Syria was merely adapting to survive the next four years of the U.S. administration.

"The Syrians have some cards they consider important," he said. "So they can surrender some Iraqis here, give up parts of Lebanon there. These are cards they can afford to lose at the moment for the sake of the regime's survival."

And Syrian President Bashar Assad is obviously not ready to give up all his cards. In an interview published Monday, he asserted that a complete withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, as demanded by a U.N. resolution passed last year, depended on a peace settlement with Israel.

"Under a technical point of view, the withdrawal can happen by the end of the year," Assad told the Italian newspaper La Repubblica. "But under a strategic point of view, it will only happen if we obtain serious guarantees. In one word: peace."

Syria and Israel broke off peace negotiations in 2000 when they could not agree on the scope of an Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, which Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war.

Assad said he believed the United States might attack his country but said Washington would eventually realize that Damascus was essential to peace efforts in the Middle East.

"The momentum (in the United States) is to overthrow the regime," he said. "They don't seem to understand they're in danger."

That momentum largely grew after Hariri's assassination. A massive outpouring of grief and anger from Lebanon spread to U.N., U.S. and French demands for an international investigation into the death and widespread calls for Syria to leave its neighbor.

"They'll have to get out of Lebanon, one way or the other," Seale said. "They need to win over opinion in Lebanon and not have that over their heads. I think they should make a major effort on that front to appease some enemies."

Tanalee Smith, based in Cairo, has covered Arab affairs for The Associated Press since 1999.

Yeah, IMHO, it is a good one. :')

Syria, lately on the losing side of international public opinion, is scrambling to ease mounting pressure against it by sacrificing its allied Lebanese prime minister, turning Saddam Hussein's half-brother over to Iraq and shifting around its troops in Lebanon.

I don't think any of the moves are anything more than window-dressing.

Threats, warnings and calls for action are coming on many fronts: from the United States, the United Nations, key ally France and most notably tens of thousands of fed-up Lebanese.

I like that -- "key ally France".

The Iraqi government, meanwhile, accuses Damascus of fanning its insurgency and Israel this week suggested it might strike Syria in the wake of a Tel Aviv suicide bombing it blames on Damascus, which hosts a number of Palestinian factions... In a huge concession Monday, Lebanon's pro-Syrian parliament resigned - a move that could not have come without Damascus' nod as Lebanese politicians look east for guidance on all major political decisions. Wildly cheering Lebanese immediately began calling for President Emile Lahoud to go next and continued the anti-Syria chants that have marked two weeks of demonstrations. After months of denying growing Iraqi accusations it was harboring fugitives, Syria handed over Sabawi Ibrahim al-Hassan, No. 36 on the U.S. list of 55 most-wanted Iraqis, on Sunday and 29 other former Baath Party officials.

I don't think the resignation of the Lebanese puppet had anything to do with Syria. I doubt that it was pre-approved. The situation is so far gone for Syria that even the puppet (which the recently assassinated Hariri was, for years) decided to desert. The rallies were prohibited by the gov't, the rallies continued, the gov't couldn't do anything to enforce its decree, the gov't was delegitimized even in its own eyes. The gov't was delegitimized in the eyes of the Lebanese when Syria ordered some recent changes to keep its puppet in power. That led to Hariri's heading for revolt, and his assassination.

As some wag pointed out years ago, regarding Idi Amin's Uganda -- the Syrian gov't is Marxist, but not Karl Marx; the Brothers.

Imad Fawzi Shueibi, a Syrian political analyst, said Iraq had provided information on where al-Hassan was and his handover had nothing to do with outside pressure: "Syria responded as a kind of good intent to show it doesn't want to contribute to regional instability."

That's such a ridiculous lie. Syria is a police state. No foreigners come and go without the gov't knowing who they are, where they are, and what they're doing.

Syrian President Bashar Assad is obviously not ready to give up all his cards. In an interview published Monday, he asserted that a complete withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, as demanded by a U.N. resolution passed last year, depended on a peace settlement with Israel... "The momentum (in the United States) is to overthrow the regime," he said. "They don't seem to understand they're in danger."

What an imbecile he is. He turned over the 30 or so Iraqi Baathist fugitives, I'm sure because they'd run out of cash. He's still harboring more of them. He's moved Syrian troops around in Lebanon, a step he's done before (as recently as 2004). There's no change in his behavior. He and the Baathist regime has to go. Until they're gone, there can't be any more talk about the Golan. Until they stop supporting terrorist mass-murderers, there can't be any more talk about peace. The Baathists have imperial ambitions, its part of their permanent agenda. They belong at the end of a rope.

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Thank for the ping.

As some wag pointed out years ago, regarding Idi Amin's Uganda -- the Syrian gov't is Marxist, but not Karl Marx; the Brothers.

ROFL. Too true. Assad is a real idiot. And now a desperate one.

Will Syria put muscle behind a desire to quell the popular uprising? That is the danger.

I think Assad vastly underestimated US/Pres Bush determination to free the area of Syrian terror when he had Hariri assasinated. Let's hope he has gotten the message now. It is suggestive that he still does not get it in that he thinks he can dictate terms like Golan Heights.

Of course Syria is the easier one. Next Iran and their funding of Hezbollah to truly free Lebanon.

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