Mubarak takes the hint

The Economist Business Unit ^

[Alex Marko]

Egypt’s president, Hosni Mubarak, has finally responded to US prompting and to the increasingly agitated demands of his domestic opposition for meaningful democratic reforms. His announcement on February 26th that he wants the constitution changed to allow for the direct election of the president is a potentially revolutionary move. It is only a first step, however, and it is unlikely to prevent Mr Mubarak from securing a fifth term when Egypt’s first contested presidential election takes place in September this year.

Mr Mubarak has resisted calls for radical political reform ever since he assumed power in 1981 following the assassination of his predecessor, Anwar Sadat. He has advanced many reasons for his conservative stance. They have included the claim that economic reform should take precedence and that the experience of Algeria, which underwent a bloody civil war in the 1990s, showed the pitfalls of moving too fast towards political pluralism. It has, however, become harder for him to defend this rigid stance in the face of pressure, both from the US and from the grassroots, for democratic opening across the Middle East. The Palestinian and Iraqi elections and the massive street protests in Lebanon have only added to this pressure.

The US president, George W Bush, in two speeches (in November 2004 and February 2005) used similar phrases to encourage Mr Mubarak to adopt political reforms: "The great and proud nation of Egypt, which showed the way toward peace in the Middle East, can now show the way toward democracy in the Middle East," he said in the more recent version, in his State of the Union address on February 2nd. The Bush administration has also registered its concern about measures taken by Mr Mubarak’s regime against pro-democracy campaigners. The most prominent of these is Ayman Nour, a member of parliament who was arrested at the end of January, three months after securing approval for the formation of a new political party—Al Ghad—whose platform includes pressing for changes to the system for electing the president. Mr Nour has been stripped of his parliamentary immunity and detained for 45 days pending investigation of allegations that he falsified more than 1,000 signatures presented to support his application to found Al Ghad. Another source of pressure on Mr Mubarak has been a group of protestors calling openly for him to leave, under the banner of "kifaya", an Arabic word for "enough".

Mr Mubarak recently dismissed calls for constitutional change as "futile". However, his subsequent endorsement of such change does not necessarily signify that he has had a sudden change of heart. He may rather have been waiting for the right moment to deliver his political bombshell.

How to elect a president

Mr Mubarak said that he has asked parliament to amend Article 76 of the Egyptian constitution in order to allow for the direct election of the president. According to the existing system, a candidate for the presidency must first obtain the support of one-third of the members of the Majlis al-Shaab (lower house of parliament). He or she must then secure the votes of two-thirds of the MPs. The selection is finally ratified by plebiscite. Given the overwhelming dominance of Mr Mubarak’s National Democratic Party (NDP) in parliament, the system has enabled the Egyptian leader to hold sway without an effective challenge for almost a quarter of a century. Article 77 states that there is no limit on the number of successive terms that a president can serve.

Mr Mubarak has proposed that a new system be drawn up allowing registered political parties to put forward their candidates for a presidential election in which all voters can participate. The details of the new system are to be drawn up by parliamentary committees over the next few weeks, and are expected to be submitted for parliamentary approval in mid-May. The speaker of parliament, Fathi Srour, told the state-controlled Al Ahram on February 28th that any party would be free to put up a candidate. He added that independents would be able to stand, provided that they secured the endorsement of an as yet unspecified number of MPs.

The shift to a system of direct elections for the presidency has been a central demand of the opposition in Egypt for many years. However, Mr Mubarak has not addressed several other core demands, in particular the maintenance of emergency laws (introduced after the Sadat assassination), the lack of any limit to the number of presidential terms, and the restrictions on the formation of political parties.

Ayman Nour case

Mr Mubarak has indicated that he is likely to seek the NDP nomination for the September election. Given the power of the office of the president and the dominant position of the state media, he is unlikely to have much to fear from rival candidates. The leaders of the main opposition parties in parliament lack substantial popular support, and the NDP is a formidable political machine. The one opposition figure who might be able to pose an effective challenge is Ayman Nour. How the 41-year-old Al Ghad leader is treated over the coming weeks will provide an important signal as to how serious Mr Mubarak is about pursuing democratic reforms. If he is subjected to the kind of long-drawn-out judicial persecution that was meted out to Saadeddin Ibrahim, a human rights and democracy campaigner arrested in 2000 and finally acquitted in 2003, it will cast doubt on Mr Mubarak’s commitment to genuine change.

Another critical issue is whether supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood will be able or willing to take part in the election. The group is technically banned, but members have contested parliamentary elections during the Mubarak era either in alliance with recognised parties or as independents. There are 17 Brotherhood-aligned MPs in the current parliament, all independents. The movement has kept a low profile in recent years, but it retains a significant following.

The decision to change the election system also casts new light on the prospect of Mr Mubarak’s son, Gamal, eventually becoming the leader of Egypt. Gamal Mubarak has played an active role within the NDP in recent years as head of its policy-making committee. He has dismissed speculation that he is being groomed to succeed his father (who is now 76), and has rejected any notion of him "inheriting" the presidency. However, the change in the constitution provides a way for him to contest a future presidential election as the NDP candidate in a democratic process.

[Jazzman1]

...Mr Mubarak said that he has asked parliament to amend Article 76 of the Egyptian constitution in order to allow for the direct election of the president...
sounds a little like kerry saying he would sign form 180, then of course stalling and never getting around to it...lol