If Syria is fighting for its survival, they can't survive by a military take over of Lebanon. al-Assad isn't that stupid...he must know there would be intervention, and he wouldn't be on the winning side.
Posted: February 28, 2005
1:00 a.m. Eastern
While Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is telling the world his military forces will leave Lebanon, a political shakeup in Damascus signals his army won't be leaving without a fight, Middle East intelligence sources tell Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.
With increasing international diplomatic pressure to withdraw troops, as well as a mounting popular uprising in Lebanon, Assad has appointed a family member to the No. 1 intelligence post and given him sweeping new powers meant to maintain the Assad dynasty at any cost.
It was the threat of a Lebanon crisis, sparked by the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, that prompted Assad's sister, Bushara Chawkat to approach her brother with a plan of ascension for her husband. She requested him to grant more authority to her husband, Assaf Chawkat, so that they would be able to avoid an end to their family dynasty begun with the rise to power of their father, Hafez al-Assad, in 1969.
Like others close to the president, Bushara Chawkat, a powerful background player in Syrian politics, is worried that a retreat from Lebanon will signal the end of the Assad regime.
They are feeling the pressure of eroding U.S.-Syria relations over the death of Hariri, for which Damascus is widely believed responsible, as well as allegations Syria is holding sensitive Iraqi weapon systems sent there by Saddam Hussein prior to the U.S. invasion of Iraq. In addition, Syria is believed to be supporting terrorists in Iraq.
The 54-year-old Gen. Assaf Chawkat has long been responsible for maintaining close ties with Hezbollah, monitoring and controlling its activities and connections with Iran. He has also entrusted with the highly secretive Assad financial issues. According to various intelligence agencies, G2 Bulletin reports, the family has accumulated over the years close to $4 billion stashed in a web of bank accounts in almost every continent.
Chawkat immediately took steps to assure Iran regarding the future of Hezbollah should Syria be forced to move out of Lebanon. General Chawkat is a firm believer in the use of force and in using the Hezbollah as a tool to settle certain Syrian political or military scores. He also gave the Iranians verbal assurances Damascus would not restrain Hezbollah should the U.S. or Israel attack Iran’s nuclear assets.
This calculated variant to use Hezbollah in a direct anti-U.S. campaign fully correlates with tactical theories developed by Chawkat. He plans, according to G2 Bulletin sources, to permit Hezbollah to confront the U.S. and Israel as an Iranian sub-contracted military tool – giving Syria plausible deniability for such attacks. Against the backdrop of growing tension in Beirut, Chawkat is leading the so-called “Lebanon lobby,” a group of active or retired Syrian intelligence generals and Baath Party extremists who are contemplating using Hezbollah to stir up a new Lebanese civil war.
Long-time observers of the Lebanese political scene point out that Syria entered Lebanon 29 years ago under the pretext of a civil war.
In his new position, the president’s brother-in-law is now also in charge of the Iraq desk, which includes control over Syria’s share in the Iraqi guerrilla and terror scene. Therefore, Syria’s alliance with Iran places Chawkat in an important position to influence the Shiite-Iraqi scene through Tehran. An early intelligence report on Chawkat’s Iraq tactics suggests he instigated the allocation of a special multimillion dollar budget to finance anti-coalition terrorist activity in Iraq. He is also willing and able to take the campaign outside of the Middle East – through the sponsorship of foreign terrorist attacks.
Chawkat, according to international intelligence sources who have watched him for years, believes in the use of brute force and terror as political tools. To facilitate his policies, he has already transferred some of the staff in Syrian embassies, consulates and legations. Intelligence officers officially described as drivers or low-level consular clerks were ordered back home for "vacations," actually direct briefings or, in some cases, replacement by Chawkat loyalists.
Other signs include a stream of Hezbollah officials summoned to Damascus individually or in small groups. Israeli intelligence agents working on the Lebanon desk are convinced Hezbollah was told by Chawkat to prepare for operations. According to G2 Bulletin sources, Chawkat did not shy away from hinting their future would depend on compliance with Syrian demands.
As Chawkat continues to establish his new power base as sole controller of intelligence and security, Egypt and other Arab countries have begun to whisper their concerns. Alarmed by rapid developments in Syria and with the prospect of a deteriorating situation in Lebanon, President Hosni Mubarak is worried over the possibility Syria will get in the way of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. He sent to Damascus his own intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, who met Chawkat privately, apparently to warn him of any hasty moves that might disrupt the peace process.
At this stage General Chawkat is emerging together, along with his wife, as the strongest link in the iron Syrian dictatorship fist, reports G2 Bulletin.
For years, Chawkat has been regarded as both door keeper and security officer of the ruling family. He is described by those who know him well as highly intelligent, cunning and ruthless to the point of utter cruelty. In the past, Chawkat survived attempts on his life and at least twice survived what were ironically described as "traffic incidents."
Chawkat is not exactly a professional soldier. He was elevated to the rank of general by his late father-in-law, who saw in him a talent to be developed and gave him the assignment of creating an inner intelligence and security apparatus in charge of Assad’s court and entourage.
The Assad family fortune, overseen by Chawkat, was built through ad hoc deals such as warehousing of sensitive Iraqi equipment, brokering delicate scientific and material purchases for Iran, receiving commissions from governments such as North Korea for arranging weapon deals with a number of Arab countries and lucrative ties with financial sources in the international illicit drug market.
A senior Israeli intelligence official described General Chawkat as “the one Syrian interested more than any other in defending the Assad family.” Another expert, also following General Chawkat’s career, remarked: “In today’s situation Bushara and Assaf as a political team are the only immediately available options to replace President Bashar Assad.”