At last the Tories are setting the political agenda, and Blair is running scared

Politics At last the Tories are setting the political agenda, and Blair is running scared Peter Oborne

Shortly before Christmas last year I went off to write a book about a malign modern trend, the rise of political lying. Regrettably, during the two months I have been absent, the lying has continued unabated. In other respects, however, British politics has changed.

Back in December there was a widespread assumption, bordering on certainty, that Tony Blair was heading for a third successive landslide victory. You could tell this by the way the two parties were conducting themselves in public. In the case of New Labour, the real battle was the contest to succeed Tony Blair on some indeterminate date after the general election, while the election itself was taken for granted.

Among the Tories it was abject gloom. Michael Howard, who looked tired, was written off. It was clear that there was going to be a great Liberal Democrat revival at the election, but nobody seriously thought that the Conservatives would add more than a handful of seats. Thoughts were therefore turning towards a summer leadership election between the home affairs spokesman David Davis and Liam Fox, the party chairman. I went to a Christmas party attended by a large number of Tory grandees in central London in mid-December, the talk was of how Davis and Fox would insist that Michael Howard went at once after the election defeat, rather than allow him to stay on and give time for David Cameron, allegedly Howard’s chosen successor, to emerge. This left a distasteful sense of starving men fighting for the few remaining scraps of flesh on a corpse. It was very gloomy indeed, although the champagne was excellent.

When I returned to Westminster last week I felt like Rip Van Winkle, so much has changed. There is a sense of purpose, bustle, competence and self-belief among the Tories. The defeatism has gone and the Conservative party is now at the heart of the national agenda in a way that has not been the case for 15 years. On every side it is setting the terms for national argument and debate.

This became obvious when the Conservatives announced their immigration policy five weeks ago. The move was criticised by the so-called ‘modernisers’, the twitchy congregation of Blair-fancying Tories who have discovered their spiritual home in the Times newspaper. But it was welcomed by voters, as the Prime Minister’s political consultant Philip Gould instantly reported back to Downing Street, which promptly saw the point and panicked. At the last moment Tony Blair was forced to add a ‘sixth pledge’ to the modest five he had planned to unveil at Labour’s Gateshead spring conference. New proposals from the Conservatives for discipline in schools had a similar effect on Ruth Kelly, the already embattled Education Secretary. She swiftly unveiled a copycat response. Again and again — on health service reform, childcare proposals, elected police authorities, the European constitution, immigration quotas, householder protection and now last week’s council tax proposals — the Conservative party has set the terms and dictated the agenda, with the government lagging along afterwards.

For the last decade the Conservative party has suffered from low self-esteem. It has allowed itself to be convinced, like so many others, of the superiority of New Labour. There was a conceptual muddle at the heart of all this. The Tories confounded success with virtue. This meant that they suffered twice over, once for failure and once for being morally worthless. Actually the two things are by no means identical, and sometimes contradictory, but many Tories could not see this. This made them prone to self-hatred, and useless.

This year the Conservative party has made a discovery. If they work on it, it could yet take them far. There is no shame and much glory in a Conservative message, honestly delivered. If the Conservative party acts according to its instinctive beliefs, and ceases to worship fashion and ephemeral success, it will in due course return to power. Over the last two months the Conservative party has been true to itself, struck a chord with the electorate, and as a result has dominated the political agenda.

It would nevertheless be idle to pretend that certain technical reasons do not lurk behind the change of mood. Tory MPs allege that Lynton Crosby, the Australian campaign adviser hired last autumn, has introduced a new crispness and dynamism.

The second technical reason is the clear-headed strategy of the shadow chancellor, Oliver Letwin. For a large part of last year Letwin was in the doghouse with colleagues, who felt a natural frustration that he refused to let them make spending commitments. But now this self-denying strategy is paying off. The James report — its programme of bureaucratic cost-cutting is another thing which New Labour has frantically promised to copy — has done its job. Letwin is using the money intelligently. Only a relatively small amount of the money which has been liberated, some £4 billion, has been allocated to tax cuts. Most is allocated elsewhere — for instance, on more policemen on the beat and on defence spending — driving home the point that Tories are more than a group of demented free-marketeers. Above all, Letwin’s thoughtful plans are credible and not disputed by independent bodies such as the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Letwin has given Michael Howard a priceless boon: a serious platform on which to fight the election.

The other two parties are in trouble. I still expect Charles Kennedy and his Liberal Democrats to pick up seats in the general election, but for the time being they have gone to ground. The Labour strategy is forlorn. The two campaign managers, Alan Milburn and Alastair Campbell, are facing a fundamental problem. They are determined to win the 2005 general election on their own terms. This means that they will not use Gordon Brown, Labour’s greatest electoral asset, who has consequently embarked on a series of mysterious foreign trips, the latest one to China.

Meanwhile Campbell and Milburn are set on running a presidential-style campaign on behalf of Tony Blair, as if he were still the election winner he undoubtedly was in 1997 and 2001. This strategy is failing, as could readily have been predicted. Last week’s ICM poll in the Guardian has yet to be franked by other data, but may turn out to be indicative. It is not just the 3 per cent Tory rise to 34 per cent, and corresponding 3 per cent New Labour fall to 37 per cent, though that is significant enough. The really fascinating comparison is with the ICM poll in February 2001, the equivalent point before the last general election. This showed New Labour on 47 per cent and the Tories on 31 per cent, a massive 16 per cent advantage and the contest over before it had begun. That is not the case this time round. Michael Howard will not win on 5 May. But a fascinating prospect is beginning to present itself: a continued Tory revival leading to panic at New Labour high command and Gordon Brown sweeping in to save the day for Tony Blair.

I know that there's an ongoing discussion at FR over whether or not a Blair victory would be a good thing. For my part, I instinctively back the Tories, though my support comes only in the form of happy thoughts and well wishes. While I've appreciated Blair's support over Iraq I don't really consider him an ally on almost any other issue, but my knowledge of British party politics is limited to say the least. I do know that Blair is a big supporter of the E.U., which I believe is antithetical to the interests of the U.S. and world democracy. Where do the Conservatives stand on that issue?

Excellent article, tanks for posting..what I don't understand, thought is how it can avoid ANY mention of ratification of the EU constitution. Blair's for it, but I don't think it will pass. Won't that be the ONE key issue the Tories should fight the electiuon on?

Not bad. I wouldn't mind having my taxes cut and there being more police.

As for foreign policy, despite what people may think - I largely believe there would be no change.

Regards, Ivan

Too bad the Tories are as anti-American as Black Jaques Chirac.

That's only true for a segment of Tory MPs and Peers. Not all Tories, and not the rank and file of the Conservative Party.

The greater defence spending pledge should be welcomed by everyone.

Regards, Ivan

a continued Tory revival leading to panic at New Labour high command and Gordon Brown sweeping in to save the day for Tony Blair.

Not necessarily good news for the US with the most important of allies.

I do know that Blair is a big supporter of the E.U., which I believe is antithetical to the interests of the U.S. and world democracy. Where do the Conservatives stand on that issue?

Excellent question. Lets ask our cousin across the pond.

Ivan??

Letwin is using the money intelligently. Only a relatively small amount of the money which has been liberated, some £4 billion, has been allocated to tax cuts. Most is allocated elsewhere — for instance, on more policemen on the beat and on defence spending — driving home the point that Tories are more than a group of demented free-marketeers.

This is what the party of Thatcher has come to?

"This year the Conservative party has made a discovery. If they work on it, it could yet take them far. There is no shame and much glory in a Conservative message, honestly delivered. If the Conservative party acts according to its instinctive beliefs, and ceases to worship fashion and ephemeral success, it will in due course return to power. Over the last two months the Conservative party has been true to itself, struck a chord with the electorate, and as a result has dominated the political agenda."

Blue-state Republicans should take note. Running RINOs won't help them one bit, but standing by the GOP's conservative message will eventually pay off.

The answer is that it depends on which Tory you ask. Some Tories such as Kenneth Clarke and Michael Heseltine - now both fallen from power and influence - are more pro-EU than Blair is. Most Tories, however fall into either mildly sceptical or thoroughly sceptical camps. The Tory platform is overall Eurosceptic, and they are, the last time I checked, opposed to the new EU Constitution.

Regards, Ivan

We do need more money spent on police and absolutely more spent on defence. I don't mind paying for that.

Regards, Ivan

"We do need more money spent on police and absolutely more spent on defence. I don't mind paying for that. "

I agree Ivan, although I'd put more emphasis on it being better spent (which also applies to every other publically funded activity)

Yes, more cash for law & order, but it should go on fighting proper crime, not persecuting huntsmen and motorists for eating apples.

Foreign Policy Agenda for the Conservatives

It states, the Tories will:

Keep the Pound
Oppose the European Constitution
Spend more on our Armed Forces
Bring back powers from Brussels

Regards, Ivan

Blair's Labour government has been rotten on almost every issue, except the alliance with America. Bad domestic policies, bad policies toward the EU.

If the Conservatives can only return to their roots on the issue of the Special Relationship, then a change of government will be most welcome.

This article says that the Tories are returning to their core beliefs. Would that it were so. They have been opportunists for so long, it's hard to believe they have finally found themselves again. If they have, then the issues of the war and the American alliance will fall into place. If not, their rule will be short.

Ivan, your problem isn't a lack of police. It's a lack of trust as far as letting the citizenry defend themselves. You are never going to have enough police on hand (unless you turn Britain into a police state) to prevent crime as it is happening. To bring down crime levels, people in Britain have to have a seachange in attitudes as far as allowing people to defend themselves against criminals.

With regard to defense spending that is important, but it is more important that people get to keep as much of the money they earn as possible. IMHO, the Tories great mistake since Thatcher left is to not emphasize tax-cutting as the main plank of their political platform. It is THE issue that holds the Republican Party together in the United States and it would do the same thing for the Tories.

Thanks for the info. The Republicans have similar problems here over certain issues with the majority of them supporting the party platform with a few desenters like Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins often siding with the Democrats. Sounds like the Tories need to whip their leaders into shape to act as one on this issue. I'd bet that that would resonate with the British electorate.

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