Regards, Ivan
Posted on 02/24/2005 2:19:37 AM PST by MadIvan
Labour's election campaign took a heavy jolt today as another opinion poll showed the Tories catching up.
A Mori survey in the Financial Times said Tony Blair's lead had been cut to only two per cent. This comes two days after a survey put the gap at three points.
Taken together, the polls appear to show voters are being won over by Michael Howard's winter offensive on tax cuts, immigration and slashing council tax bills for pensioners. The findings will jangle nerves at Labour HQ.
It suggests Mr Blair's counter-attack has fallen flat, despite his headline-grabbing helicopter charge across the country to launch six election pledges. And it will raise questions about the effectiveness of the Prime Minister's "punchbag strategy", which saw him allow members of the public to criticise his record on live television.
Mori put Labour on 39 per cent, with the Tories closing in at 37 per cent and the Liberal Democrats at 18 per cent.
The poll found immigration and asylum was the biggest single issue - ranked as important by almost a quarter of voters.
It gave the Tories their best popularity rating in a Mori poll since July 2003, when Iain Duncan Smith was leader. The improvement delighted Conservative campaign chiefs.
However, it is far too little to bring them close to an election victory. Even with a two-point lead Labour would win with a landslide majority estimated at about 96.
The high profile of immigration alarmed Labour MPs. Only half as many voters ranked expected concerns such as health or the Iraq war as their biggest issue.
Mr Blair last week accused the Tories of trying to turn the election into a vote on immigration. But Mori chief Sir Robert Worcester said: "People feel Labour has failed most on tackling illegal immigration."
He predicted an even lower turnout in the general election than in 2001. Young people were even less likely to vote than before.
This would give "grey power" - courted by the Conservatives with promised council tax cuts for pensioners - more influence than ever.
Regards, Ivan
Ping!
Did the Tories gain from Labor or from the BNP, UKIP and Veritas?
I think Labour. Labour has irritated older voters and it seems they're starting to defect.
Regards, Ivan
This poll sounds like an outlier, I haven't seen any other polls putting the Tories within striking distance yet.
It'll take another one to confirm it.
Agreed. I do think however that Labour is suffering on the immigration issue.
Regards, Ivan
I can't believe that Michael Howard has brought the Tories within an inch of catching new Labour.
He's just, well....a dweeb.
I don't think anyone attributes this success to Michael Howard. Governments tend to lose elections more than oppositions win them.
Regards, Ivan
Well here's the kicker...in the late nineties, the Labour party did such a job in terms of gerrymandering that the Tories would have to recieve a 12% more of the vote than Labour to have an equal number of members of Parliament. Were the tories to outpoll Labour by three to four points, Labour would still have a huge majority.
The Tories still won't win the election.
I can't see it happening, anyway. And Blair - despite falling popularity amid certain voters - is still pretty well liked.
As for the other parties...what the hell is up with Kilroy-Silk and 'Veritas'. The UKIP seems to have more splinter groups than the IRA. Is Veritas, UKIP-lite?
All depends on the turnout on the day, though. Labour have alienated so many of their 1997 supporters that one rainy day could wash away the bedrock of support, leaving the Tories with a free run.
*shakes head in disbelief*
Even I'm not that optimistic!
Veritas is one madman's ego, unleashed for the entertainment of a nation. Kilroy-Silk only cares about Kilroy-Silk.
Veritas is what I would call a "vanity party" - it's solely an instrument for Robert Kilroy-Silk to run around the country claiming he's a serious politician.
UKIP has been wounded by his defection - hopefully not fatally. It is sad when the ego and ambition of one man outweigh a good cause.
Regards, Ivan
So what is Michael Howard's stand on the EU and Britains planned ceding of its sovereignty to it?
That all depends when you ask him; he's an opportunist, not someone with a strong ideological base.
However, since most people in this country are more skeptical than not about the EU, he is probably more Eurosceptic than Blair.
Regards, Ivan
That is a shame.
I had hoped that the Tories could produce a man of principle.
Are there no real gentlemen left in the Tory Party that can oppose Blair anymore?
Well there is discussion about the return of William Hague if the Tories lose again. It would be worth it to me to have a weakened Labour government, if Hague can return - you may recall he established a very good rapport with President Bush, and was thinking about advocating the UK joining NAFTA as opposed to getting involved any further in the EU.
Regards, Ivan
It's become obvious that the vast majority of people in the UK want immigration reform. Even Labour is talking about tightening up the rules - I doubt the EU could do anything to damage its reputation even more than it has been damaged already by attempting to block this reform. It will happen - either under Blair or Howard.
Regards, Ivan
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