Posted on 02/23/2005 4:41:54 AM PST by spectrout
I remember a Doris Day song.
"Que Sera Sera"
bump
Actually the accuracy rate of weather forecasting 24 hours ahead is very good. However the further ahead in time you go accuracy begins to drop. When you get to long range forecasts of 7 to 10 days ahead you might as well be flipping coins.
Former Minnesota resident here.
There isn't a growing list of evidence. Its the same arguments, but made more numerous and louder.
Your perception of an increase in average temperature is only a snapshot of the global temperature that is limited by your lifespan. For a discussion of long term trends, I suggest the following link:
http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm
Second, most credible environmentalists will admit that the Kyoto protocols will not accomplish what they seek. The exclusion of over half the world's population (China and India, for example) should cause you some concern. Also, natural CO2 removal (ie trees) would make the United States a net consumer of CO2, but this is not allowed in the protocols. Kyoto is simply advancement of socialism.
"Actually the accuracy rate of weather forecasting 24 hours ahead is very good......"
On Sunday at 4 PM, prior to leaving for Albany to drop my son off at his college (a 7 hour round trip), I checked the 12 hour forecast for the NY Thruway. A snowstorm was predicted to start “after midnight”. The snow started big time at 10 PM and I had a heck of a time getting back home.
The relied upon forecast was only for 8 hours into the future and it was off by 25%!
CO2 outgassing is a widely held belief.
I'm not sure if I understand how ocean warming causes an ice age though.
From the article:
"We've forgotten that this isn't the first time our seas have warmed. Sea temperatures also shot upward 10º to 18ºF just prior to the last ice age. As the oceans warmed, evaporation increased. The excess moisture then fell to the ground as giant blizzards, giant storms and floods (Noah's Deluge type floods), and a new ice age began."
The models used in day-to-day forecasting are very limited in dealing with water vapor predictions and if you extend this into long term forecasts, the model error grows exponentially.
I am going by overall accuracy. Accuracy of course varies from locale to locale too. After all how hard would it be to forecast no rain in the Sahara?
In addition:
"Worldwide flood activity is the worst since before Christopher Columbus. In Poland, it's the worst in several thousand years. In the U.S., precipitation has increased by more than 20 percent just since 1970. This is no coincidence.
"When that precipitation begins falling in the winter, you have the makings of an ice age."
It is the accuracy that is in question! In your own words: accuracy “varies from local to local” and “When you get to long range forecasts of 7 to 10 days ahead you might as well be flipping coins”.
People need to think simply before going to the mat with the global warming theory. They need to first ask themselves: “In my own experience, how accurate have weather forecasts been?”
Try this experiment: For the next several weeks log tomorrow’s forecast high and lows for your area and then check them against the actual temperatures.
Then tell me how much faith you have in an average temperature projection for the ENTIRE planet 25, 50 or a 100 years into the future!
Thanks for posting the link. That was an excellent speech. I would have liked to have been there when Mr. Crichton delivered it just to see the audience reaction.
Nice to see a voice of reason, even if it's an author of fiction. I think, even from an unbiased viewpoint, that he makes a number of cogent arguments.
Boy, that makes feel a whole lot better, instead of having to run from the ocean for the next 50 years, I can look forward to getting frozen to death in less than 20.
The guy claims were in the midst of it now and that it only takes 20 years to transition. 20 years isn't that long to wait to have his theory proven or disproven in the scheme of things.
Do I believe it? Not really. Is it possible? Maybe.
At least we'll know if he's right or wrong in that time frame unlike so many other things... I didn't mean anymore or any less by my statement.
Yeah they miss forcasts and those are the ones you remember for sure if like in your instance it affects you. I am not however defending anything about global warming and its theory because the average weather forecast within 24 hours is usually accurate.
Thanks xp38, I hope you don’t think that I am busting your chops. I recognize from your previous posts that you are not a global warming theory advocate. Perhaps, like me, you have the attitude that you just plain don’t know if it is occurring, but you certainly can not be convinced that it is occurring, given today’s technology and specifically, with the reasoning that is being offered by certain “scientists”.
An attempt is being made for the readers of this thread, who might possibly believe the global warming BS, to consider simple facts before they go wandering about citing random data as a global trend with respect to a phenomena as complex as weather.
However, in response to your post, even if the weathermen were 99% accurate on a monthly basis for TOMORROWS temperatures, the extrapolated error a few years into the future is astounding.
Now, how well do they fair with a two day forecast!
"The excess moisture then fell to the ground as giant blizzards, giant storms and floods (Noah's Deluge type floods),"
I am sure there are those in LA that would agree with that.
read later
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