Posted on 02/19/2005 5:27:22 PM PST by Libloather
Global Warming Could Worsen U.S. Pollution: Report
Sat Feb 19, 3:57 PM ET Science - Reuters
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Global warming could stifle cleansing summer winds across parts of the northern United States over the next 50 years and worsen air pollution, U.S. researchers said on Saturday.
Further warming of the atmosphere, as is happening now, would block cold fronts bringing cooler, cleaner air from Canada and allow stagnant air and ozone pollution to build up over cities in the Northeast and Midwest, they predicted.
"The air just cooks," said Loretta Mickley of Harvard University's Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences. "The pollution accumulates, accumulates, accumulates, until a cold front comes in and the winds sweep it away."
Mickley and colleagues used a computer model, an approach commonly used by climate scientists to predict weather and climate changes.
She told a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science that the model predicted a 20-percent decline in summer cold fronts out of Canada.
"If this model is correct, global warming would cause an increase in difficult days for those affected by ozone pollution, such as people suffering with respiratory illnesses like asthma and those doing physical labor or exercising outdoors," she said.
World temperatures have risen by an average of 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.6 degree Celsius) over the past century.
Earlier this week 141 nations signed the U.N. Kyoto Protocol aimed at cutting the so-called greenhouse gas emissions that fuel global warming.
It imposes caps on carbon dioxide emissions, mainly from burning fossil fuels in power plants, factories and cars, in 35 developed nations.
The United States, which produces the most pollution of any country, has refused to sign it.
The model used by Mickley and her colleagues incorporates things such as the sun's luminosity, topography of the planet, the distribution of the oceans, the pull of gravity and the tilt of the Earth's axis, as well as predicted warming.
They fed in gradually increased levels of greenhouse gases at rates projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. What they found surprised them.
"The answer lies in one of the basic forces that drive the Earth's weather -- the temperature difference between the hot equator and the cold poles," Mickley said.
In the middle latitudes, low-pressure systems and accompanying cold fronts help redistribute heat by carrying warm air to the poles and replacing it with cool air. Warming slows that process down, Mickley's team found.
A vast flood of liquid caramel would devaste downtown Milwaukee! Yet, shouldn't we be preparing for such confectionary contingencies? What if it actually happens? Our computer models say that such an occurance would destroy our environment, and 7 out of 10 scientists agree. So, what are we waiting for? Could it be... that the premise is as idiotic as man-made global warming? Nah, they have proved that to be true, haven't they?
Um... here's a tip.
Admittedly - it is warming but Earth is subject to its own cyclical effects.
However, you negate ANY AND ALL CREDIBILITY to yourself by posting a link by Richard C. Hoagland.
Using computer models is not even accurate to predicting the weather for tomorrow much less 50-100 years future.
Here in upstate NY a "Nor-easter" snow storm can be affected by a late shift in the track of the storm changing predicted snowfall totals by more than a foot.The shadow effect of the Green Mountains can vary snowfall dramatically as well.
All in all no one has the slightest idea what the weather will be for any locality beyond a few hours at best and that is still subject to factors that computers cannot predict.
Where I live the path of summer thunderstorms are quite often effected by the dumping of the Battenkill river into the Hudson river.This often splits storms as the cooler temperature of the water alters the path that they are on.
Weather like politics is all local.
Larry Summers comments, er, hypothesis really, on female scientists.
Yada, yada, yada, yada . . .
IF your model is correct.
I (seriously) question the timing of this meeting releasing all this propaganda just as Kyoto starts up. They should call it the American Association for the Advancement of Ridiculous Propaganda or AAARP.
[model] or luck...
Worst snow storms I ever saw. And it is not over.
Yeah...there's that plus the fact that Mickley's field is engineering and applied sciences and not climatology.
So, why are we suppose to give credence to someone who is working outside of her specialty, and who makes computer models without all relevant data factored in?
main()
{
printf("EVERYTHING IS GOING TO BE JUST FINE.\n");
exit(0);
}
That would warm anyone up.
Actually I think they're timed to put pressure on Bush as he visits Europe. "Amazing" nevertheless.
I am just an 'observer' on this planet. But, for the most part, we are like fleas living on the back of an animal we call 'earth.'
Think about the ultimate reality of that for a moment. Our time in this world is limited and time is just a thought in the mind of God.
If this model is correct, ....
---oh....go away---
These people are like herpes. They just won't go away.
Buddy of mine worked for years for a phosphate company here in Florida. He submitted endless forms and data to the DER (Dept of Environmental Regulation). The mines have to have overflow ponds that will meet that caused by rainfall. He said when his calculations showed they were insufficient, all he had to do was lower the "projected" future rainfall minutely in his model & they were now in compliance with regs. His point was that no one can accurately predict many of the variables used in these models.
Basically, the models are tweaked to give the desired results. You extrapolate a margin of error, then you pull your numbers from the appropriate end of that range to get the result you want.
But surely, we know the proponents of "global warming" are much to alturistic to do anything like that?
Look. Nearly anything published by Hoaxland is a joke. There is no "Hyperdimensional" this or that. Period. Physics and quantum mechanics don't work that way.
I suggest you look at his crackpot "alien cities on the moon" stuff
This model looks a lot closer to perfection than their model.
"These are some of what was fed into the "suspect" model. What was left out?"
Well, here's three as a shot from the hip, folks:
Water vapor concentration gradients / Cloud Cover
Urban Heat Island Effect
Concentration of CO2 in the Oceans
"State of Fear"
My thoughts exactly!
Crichton's book is supposed to be fiction, but my word, it sure seems more and more like reality all the time, doesn't it? He's penned what amounts to a Green 1984.
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