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To: oceanview

Maybe economic growth in China is so high because it's still mostly a 3rd world country. Economic growth, historically, flattens out as economies mature. China is fighting significant internal economic issues - runaway credit, preferential lending practices to party owned or controlled companies, areas of hyper-inflation - that must be faced. They will face a few cycles of recession, maybe severe, as they continue to absorb dollars. Japan was in this position in the 70's and 80's, although they also had a scandalously over-valued real-estate market devouring a lot of free capital and generating bad loans.

By the way, they've announced that they are going to start moving to a market-basket currency model, which will push the Yuan up some. Such an increase can easily be absorbed in a low-cost labor market like China. The solution to the problem is to keep them moving towards the WTO and let them grow their way out of it. Economic growth will lead to political reform. You cannot have consumer choice on the scale available in China today and expect other forms of choice and expression to remain bottled up.

Japan, the EU, now China: seems we're always just moments away from economic doom.


47 posted on 02/18/2005 10:26:18 AM PST by usafsk ((Know what you're talking about before you dance the QWERTY waltz))
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To: usafsk

Ah... but you are presenting economic facts... williegreen and oceanview lose you there.


57 posted on 02/18/2005 10:30:08 AM PST by Betaille (Harry Potter is a Right-Winger)
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To: usafsk

if Japan had mantained an artificial currency peg, if they had slave wages and low living standards - the trade situation with them would be far far different then it is today. Toyota employs 200,000 americans in the auto business. China is draining US jobs in manufacturing and technology.


59 posted on 02/18/2005 10:32:30 AM PST by oceanview
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To: usafsk
Economic growth will lead to political reform.

This is the common argument for dealing with Chinese tyrants. (ie. Yes, we are making the tyrants richer by buying more Chinese goods but eventually, the slaves will free themselves.)

When does that happen?

Making tyranny more profitable to a tyrant ends the tyranny?

207 posted on 02/18/2005 6:42:52 PM PST by NoControllingLegalAuthority
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To: usafsk
I won't bet the farm on China taking any steps to reform itself. What happened to the Communists in Russia, is gentle compared to a peasant revolt, and they know it. IMHO the Chicom leadership will start a war with one of their neighbors to divert the populace.
Our craving of cheap DVDs will fuel their engine.
216 posted on 02/18/2005 7:41:24 PM PST by investigateworld (Another California Refugee in Oregon)
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