Women of all ideological stripes deeply dislike the woman.
I've heard a lot of voiced fear that women will turn out in droves to have a woman President. I'm not convinced. I know my sex. Yes, for some a woman President would be a draw. For that woman to be Hillary...
I wouldn't count on that "sister" loyalty being a lock.
The guy is right about her. A Dem candidate has yet to crack the 50% mark since Carter's first election. Hillary is polarizing. You can state Bush was polarizing, but Republicans have cracked 50% with 43, 41, Reagan and Nixon. Last time Dems cracked 50% was Carter's one term. We can afford to have a polarizing figure so long as everyone turns out. Dems turn out their base they have 48%-49% max. The only way Hill wins is by splitting the Republican base in two. I'm sure that is her intention but it's chancy. Dems would have a better chance taking a figure people don't dislike from the start to run.
Bingo. And if the Republicans nominate Giuliani or McCain, IMHO, that's exactly what will happen. Many conservatives will break away for another candidate, ala Ross Perot in '92. Hillary knows that Bill won in '92 with only 43% of the popular vote. If she can simply hold the blue states Kerry won and pick up either Ohio or Florida, she's in.
Maybe not the only way, but clearly her optimum strategy. Question is, how would she do that?
There is one other more likely possibility....The Republicans run a pro-choice candidate (rino) and the Christians stay home. 90% of the possible names floating about for our next run are pro-choice Republicans, so it looks like we are more likely to shoot ourselves than have a 3rd party split us like before.