[Iwo Jima]

It is a hallmark of the marketplace (black or otherwise) that no person or group of people can possibly predict how resourceful it can be. That is why government does such a lousy job regulating markets. Whenever barriers to trade are thrown up, the inexorable human instinct is to get around them, not always is the most efficient or beneficial manner (like the illegal drug market).

Therefore, I cannot tell you exactly where the black market would get the products to sell. But the merchandise might be smuggled in from Mexico, Canada, Indian reservations, black market domestic sources, thefts or illicit transfers from "legitimate" sources, the possibilities are many.

Smaller more expensive items would obviously be more amenable to being obtained in "unorthodox" ways; the profit would make the risks more palatable. This is just the way that smuggling has happened for centuries. You can't outlaw it when the price differential is as great as is being discussed here.

That's the best that I can do, since I've never actually smuggled anything or dealt in pirated goods, nor do I intend to do so. I just know that others would, and the creative ways in which they would do so would surprise us both.

And the more successful and vigorous the black market is, the more pressure is brought to bear on "traditional" businesses to cut corners and hope that they don't get audited.

[CSM]

As a result, you are not really sure that the black market would increase to the point that avoidance would be 4x under the sales tax compared to the avoidance we have today. Are you going to stand by that earlier claim you made?