Russia: North Korea has made 'wrong choice' if it has quit nuclear talks: Ivanov

MUNICH, Germany (AFP) - Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said that North Korea (news - web sites) had made "the wrong choice" if it had quit international talks aimed at resolving a stand-off over its nuclear programmes.

"If the information in question proves accurate, I would say that North Korea has made the wrong choice," Ivanov told a high-level meeting of international security experts in the German city of Munich.

"I believe we should do all we can to keep that state in the treaty framework," Ivanov added.

North Korea announced this week it was withdrawing from six-country talks over its nuclear weapons and vowed to build more atomic bombs.

Russia, along with the United States, China, South Korea (news - web sites) and Japan have held three rounds of talks with North Korea since August 2003 with a view to lowering tensions and persuading the Stalinist state to give up its nuclear weapons program.

However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Friday that informal negotiations were continuing despite Pyongyang's announcement.

"The consultations over North Korea never stopped, and are continuing on a normal basis," Lavrov said.

"International contacts between all of the participants of the negotiations are continuing," he said.

The United States on Friday rejected North Korea's call for direct negotiations outside the context of the six-party talks.

What's happening in Asia is a classic case of the Law of Unintended Consequences biting a lot of folks in the ass.

There was once a paradigm: China is the economically bulging super-state of the future which, therefore, be treated with great deference because it will be dominant. North Korea is a protectorate of China, and therefore immune. South Korea wants to appease the North. The Russians want to maintain their "alliance" with China both to protect their exposed Siberian flank from possible future problems, but also to counterbalance US influence in the region. Taiwan can operate freely, but must not assert itself in the face of a inevitably dominant China.
And the US must somehow figure out how to keep a lid on it all, and to protect the region against North Korean nuclear weapons: a sort of mission impossible.

Everyone knew that, and so the North Koreans plowed ahead, rattled the saber, shot off missiles, and announced themselves a nuclear power. Take THAT, America!

But the Law of Unintended Consequences kicked in, and with it, the whole paradigm has gone spinning right down the toilet.
Because everybody looking at the way things were and have been for a long time, forgot something. And the something they forgot was the elephant in the closet, the huge counterpoise sitting there back in the dark, ignored and unloved. The sleeping giant who woke up.

I am referring, of course, to Japan.
Let's get something straight: Japan is the most powerful country in Asia.
Power is measured in economic terms, because economies are easily convertible into arms, at will.
Yes, Russia has nukes and so does China. But so does America, and Japan is a close and deep ally of America. Japan is protected by mutual assured destruction.
Japan's economy is larger than China's and Russia's combined. It dwarfs everyone else's in the world, except for America's. Germany and France...the "powerhouses of Europe", are economically, technologically and scientifically puny compared to Japan. Japan is the equal of the United States in technology and engineering. No other country is. No other country is the equal of Japan economically. The rest of East Asia put all together is not equal to Japan economically. And economic power can be converted to military power.

But, of course, this was inconceivable under the paradigm.
Japan was, after all, pacifist (was it REALLY? Or was it PEACEFUL? There is a difference, as the world is about to find out to its shock.) Japan was limited by its constitution. Japan was this, Japan was that.

In spite of all of that, Japan already has the most powerful Navy in Asia, and this week they USED it. On who? CHINA. They sailed right in and planted Japanese forces on disputed islands. The dispute is over. Japan has militarily occupied them, and the fact is that Japan is militarily superior to China at sea and in the air.
Nobody has noticed for all these years.
Japan also has no interest in allowing China to ever take Taiwan. And Japan alone, without the US (of course the US will be there too, along with the Taiwanese themselves) would destroy the Navy and air forces of the People's Republic of China were Red China to ever attempt to seize Taiwan. Japan is militarily superior to China at sea in Asia. That is a fact. It was not part of the paradigm, but it is a fact. Japan is also militarily superior to Russia at sea in Asia. Again, that is a fact. It is not part of the paradigm, but it is a fact.

And Japan is cooperating with the US on missile defense.
I wonder if all of those folks who say "Missile defense is impossible" are quite so confident about that once they learn that Japan, Inc. is working on it.

What happened?
What happened was three things.
First, China's little homonculous North Korea shot a missile directly over Japan.
Second, North Korean kidnappings from Japan itself of Japanese nationals was revealed.
Third, North Korea threatened Japan with nuclear weapons.
And as a result of that, Japan woke up.

And that means that everything has changed.
Japan just drove China off the oilfields at sea by a MILITARY move. Allow that to penetrate. China claims them, but the Japanese Navy just took them.
Japan has troops in Iraq.
Japan is working on missile defense.
And Japan has passed regulations that effectively shut down North Korean imports into Japan, guaranteeing a massive economic dislocation in Korea.

"The Japan that can say NO" was the dream of the 1980s, but the folks who were dreaming that were dreaming that Japan was going to say "No" to the United States.
What has happened instead is that Japan is rousing itself from its slumber and saying "No" to CHINA. No, China, you will NOT simply slide into dominance in Asia unopposed. No, China, you will NOT control the oil fields on the sea beds. WE WILL. No, Korea, you will NOT threaten us and take our citizens. In fact, we will blow you out of the water if you come into Japanese waters again. And just last year, the Japanese Navy did exactly that: Blew a North Korean Navy vessel out of the water when it entered Japanese waters and defied orders to stop.

So, North Korea got nukes, and suddenly, the American strategic situation in Asia has become SIMPLER.
Because the Japanese are not going to be threatened by assholes in Korea. China did not control its nasty little ally. And that provoked a paradigm shift.

To put it bluntly, the vast, dominant economic Empire in Asia has just suddenly turned off its cloaking device, and suddenly everyone remembers that it is THERE, in the middle of everything, and more powerful than any of its neighbors. Japan is as powerful as it chooses to be. It chose to be weak for a long time.
That time is over.
Because Korea threatened Japan, and China didn't stop it,
Japan is now threatening China, and Korea too, and the Russians are frightened as well.
And that is why Russia is suddenly interested in these 6 party talks.
Because Russia realizes that if Japan does not go back to sleep, they have backed the wrong horse yet again.

That is what's going on.
Japan has been provoked into turning off its cloaking device. The paradigm has changed. The Empire is back.

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