Posted on 02/11/2005 10:54:34 AM PST by Destro
PM defies Bush over China arms
By Greg Sheridan
12feb05
THE Howard Government has defied US efforts to dissuade the European Union from lifting its 15-year arms embargo on China, which Washington fears will transform the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait.
The decision by Australia to rebuff the joint private and public lobbying by the US and Japan is the most serious strategic disagreement between Washington and Canberra in recent years.
US officials had wanted to make the lobbying a joint effort by the US, Japan and Australia - the three great Pacific democracies, the three strategic allies - but the Howard Government refused.
Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, fresh from meetings with his European counterparts, will not oppose the EU lifting the arms embargo, imposed after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.
Instead, a spokesman for Mr Downer said this week that Australia hoped the Europeans would not sell arms that would destabilise the military balance in the Pacific.
The Europeans say they will satisfy this request by imposing strict rules on what they sell to China and under what conditions.
However, American officials suspect France is likely to sell high-tech military systems to China, which would hamper the US's ability to defend Taiwan should China attempt unification by force.
The Europeans, following a visit to China by French President Jacques Chirac last October, have repeatedly said they will lift the embargo, but have not said when. Some speculation centres on the 30th anniversary of EU-China diplomatic relations, in May this year.
US and Japanese officials believe that European rules on what they sell will be full of loopholes and ineffective.
"Australia is important because it's a bellwether of how well the US coalition will hold," a US official said.
Some US officials believe Australia has been bribed and bullied by Beijing.
The Howard Government places a high premium on its relations with China, with which it is hoping to negotiate a free trade agreement.
The Bush administration is generally so grateful to the Howard Government over its support on Iraq, Afghanistan and the war on terror that it will not make a public fuss. But it is deeply disappointed at the inability of Washington and Canberra to co-ordinate their China policy. This follows remarks last year by Mr Downer in Beijing that Australia would not be bound to support the US if Washington felt compelled to take military action against China to protect Taiwan.
US officials, who spoke to The Australian on condition of anonymity, believe this statement sent out an unhelpful signal to China that "anything goes", though they accept this was not Mr Downer's intention.
Analysts believe Beijing is not likely to seek from Europe main weapons platforms such as submarines and planes, but rather computer-based parts of systems that can be adapted to make weapons far more lethal.
A high priority would be anything related to missiles. Computer-centred technologies that allow for miniaturisation and precise targeting are among the systems the Chinese are believed to want.
It would make them far more formidable in the waters near their coast, especially near Taiwan, which remains the most likely military flash point with the US.
It would be much more likely that China would then be able to sink US aircraft carriers. One US official was quoted in the European press this week as saying: "We are talking about the Europeans making it easier for the Chinese to kill Americans."
Strategic analysts say China is pursuing four methods of obtaining military high-tech: indigenous development, intelligence efforts, purchase of Western dual-use civilian technology and direct purchase of military technology.
well at least now they will be doing it in the open instead of a Oil For Food type of way maybe?
Just a guess, but I would bet that china is bullying the EU as well...;.
No bullying of the EU - some in the EU want the business others like teh French wantto build up the Chinese as a counter power to America on purpose.
No bullying of the EU - some in the EU want the business others like teh French wantto build up the Chinese as a counter power to America on purpose.
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That is their precise intent. But they also want to make money on arms sales as well. Their intentions toward the US are nefarious.
Invading California, no. Shooting a missile at an aircraft carrier over a dispute with Tiawan, yes.
There is as much chance of China attacking the USA as I have of winning the lottery, being abducted by martians and finding Elvis working in a coffee shop all in the one day.
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You are right, but you are right for a reason. Overwhelming retaliatory force due to superior technology. As long as it is not worth the price they would pay, China will make no moves toward the U.S. BUT that does not exclude other nations, such as Taiwan and others they are already trying to gain seagoing access to.
However, American officials suspect France is likely to sell high-tech military systems to China, which would hamper the US's ability to defend Taiwan should China attempt unification by force.
France and Germany and Belgium are no longer allies. They may not be outright enemies, but they are certainly adversaries in many areas. Our areas of common interest are dwindling. They are almost in the same category as Russia. All the rhetoric aside, I think GWB and Condi know this and will deal them accordingly.
BYE BYE TAIWAN, sorry, but your neighbors don't care one bit about you. You've been sold out.
Shame on America for giving China the money to buy said weapons.
Projection?
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