I know it may be hard to believe, but I am a scientist...no kidding, degree and everything. Change the assumptions, collectively or individually, as long as they are reasonable. Then recalculate the probability. Given the magnitudes of the problem, probability will remain zero.
As far as biologists, I work with a couple. They agree that the polypeptide chain would need to assemble. Where "the spark of life" comes in is debatable. So I said, let's just look at the physical structure. What are the probabilities of a nucleic acid molecule self assembling? I did forget one other assumption--namely that energy sources are assumed to be plentiful. This is just to avoid arguments about primeval lightning and geothermal activity, and give evolution every benefit of the doubt.
Cheers!
What degree, which university and what year?
I don't know. How big are they, and how big are the components of them that might be expected to exist in a primordial pool? And how many potential ones are there? (I take it we aren't talking about a particular nucleic acid, any one will do, right?)