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Posted on 02/10/2005 6:51:04 AM PST by dead
IT would be grotesque indeed if Kim Jong-Il, the weird ruler of North Korea, became the second dictator to bluff his way into catastrophic war with the US on the basis of nuclear weapons that do not exist.
North Korea's bizarre statement that it already has nuclear weapons and will now develop more is impossible to interpret confidently.
US intelligence has long believed North Korea probably does have one or perhaps two crude nuclear devices.
However, there is intense debate within the US intelligence community over the extent and nature of Pyongyang's nuclear program.
There has always been a minority view in Western intelligence that North Korea is engaged in a great bluff. In this scenario, Kim Jong-Il is behaving like Saddam Hussein - deriving status and power from the aura of weapons of mass destruction.
However, no one can be confident in this analysis.
Certainly, North Korea has two separate nuclear programs - both of which can yield weapons-grade material.
One is a plutonium program based on the nuclear reactor at Yongbyon. The other is a highly enriched uranium program dispersed at different locations in North Korea.
Two years ago The Australian revealed extensive Pentagon contingency plans to attack North Korea's nuclear facilities.
The Bush administration, while wishing to solve the problem diplomatically, has never taken the military option off the table.
But there are three devastating road blocks to such action. One, Washington could not be sure it had got all North Korea's nuclear facilities in any attack. Two, the US military is already fully extended in Iraq. Three, North Korea has vast batteries of artillery, deeply embedded in rugged mountainside, all trained on the South Korean capital, Seoul.
Nonetheless it is difficult to imagine Washington would do nothing if, as the North Korean official statement claims, the rogue Communist state now embarks on producing new nuclear weapons.
North Korea has a history of crazy statements, which often turn out to be false. But you wouldn't bet your life on this statement being untrue.
This is a crisis from hell.
I'm so wonwee....
You're right.
Thanks... I agree with you fully.
The USS Alaska, an Ohio class sub is lurking in the deep water awaiting an order. If lil kimmi does something really stupid, good bye.
One can only hope that our subs are safe. After the massive technology transfer to China by the CLintons and other new inventions by Russia it's only a matter of time before our subs lose their invisiblity.
A Chinese general once said he could send missiles to LA. Maybe the Chinese are giving ballistic technology to the PRK.
First, the interests of the US and the ROK are no longer congruent. The ROK cares mostly about not getting invaded or overrun with refugees, and the US cares about nuclear exports. The DPRK has allowed itself to be bought off by the ROK via the special economic zones, limited trade and the like in exchange for an implied promise not to invade, and so the ROK policy is now to urge restraint on the US. Meanwhile, it is clear that the DPRK cannot be bought off by the US on nuclear exports, because of the Clinton experience.
It also appears that the DPRK is gambling on the Chinese model - economic reform in a few special zones plus continued tight political control - as a way to stay in power. The chances of it working are probably less than 50/50 (especially if reports about the refugee tide across the Yalu are true), but it's the best shot they have. By providing the ROK and the PRC with opportunities to make money they have neutralized them even further as US partners. I suspect the Chinese are quite willing to string the DPRK along as is, and are not that concerned about nuclear exports to the jihad crowd. In fact, they may actually desire it. The ongoing efforts to throw Kim Jong-Il under the bus are probably part of this effort to make the DPRK regime more stable.
I don't know much about such matters, but it appears to me that the best play for the US has is to encourage a rapid overthrow of the DPRK regime via some sort of uprising. But that's easier said than done.
We can minimize fallout. And I think you overestimate the danger of fallout. How much of Japan was depopulated after they were nuked?
Didn't Wee Willie Winkie give China (and who knows who else) the technology for missile guidance systems? Something was missing with that man. . also with the other half of the Clinton Cabal. In fact, she was Co-President at the time.
<< .... the [United States] Military is already fully extended in Iraq. >>
I wouldn't bet on that if I was you, Mr Murdoch's Mr Sheridan.
And I'd advise you to tell your perverted little matey, Kim Jong-Il, not to bet on it too.
but isn't China being foolish to allow Jihadists to get their hands on nukes (thought the rumour is al Queda tried to buy nukes from the Chinese and the only reason the Chinese said no was the fact their nukes could be traced back)
a stable world economy is in their own best interests and while they are not No. 1 on the Islamist hit list, they are apostates in the eyes of the Wahhabbis
and lest we forget India (which does care about Hindu hating Jihadists getting their hands on nukes, after all they hate Hindus even more than Westerners) is China's biggest trading partner at the moment, you'd want to keep India happy I would think, heaven forbid if a Chinese nuke ended up used on India.....or Russia for that matter......
That's why we want to move them south and away from the DMZ.
Be careful what you wish for.
There has always been a minority view in Western intelligence that North Korea is engaged in a great bluff. In this scenario, Kim Jong-Il is behaving like Saddam Hussein - deriving status and power from the aura of weapons of mass destruction.
However, no one can be confident in this analysis.
They can, however, scream "Bush Lied, People Died" in hindsight if it does turn out to be a bluff. To be on the left is never to be wrong.
Iraq did not have WMD' and WMD technology and WMD programs? Since when?
I do not believe the United States military is even close to fully extended in Iraq. Would be very dangerous for our enemies to think this.
Guess its time for Jimmy Carter to get his Nobel Prize upgraded!
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