Posted on 02/08/2005 7:49:33 PM PST by Destro
ANALYSIS - Nepal king calls world's bluff, back me or Maoists
Thu Feb 3, 2005 07:50 AM ET
By Simon Denyer
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Two months ago, India, the United States and Britain warned Nepal's king against a unilateral grab for power. On Tuesday, he called their bluff.
King Gyanendra sacked the government, arrested politicians and assumed absolute power for three years. The press was muzzled, phone lines snapped and the internet closed down as Nepal seemed to retreat back into its shell.
His action is being described as a "royal coup d'etat."
Condemnation came swiftly. India and the United States said the king's move played into the hands of Maoist rebels fighting a bitter nine-year-old insurgency to topple the monarchy.
Britain said it was reviewing military and development aid, and the United Nations insisted democracy should be restored.
It is reminiscent of the condemnation that followed General Pervez Musharraf's 1999 coup in nearby Pakistan. Musharraf, of course, eventually won the world around, insisting that he was a better choice than Islamic extremists.
Nepal's monarch could be playing a similar game.
"Clearly, King Gyanendra has calculated that when it comes to a choice between the monarchy and Maoists, India and the international community would have no option but to side with him," wrote Indian foreign policy expert C. Raja Mohan.
Newspapers called the king's move a "high-risk gamble". If he can do what he has promised -- bring peace with the Maoists and ultimately restore democracy, the gamble could pay off.
If he fails, there will be no one to blame but himself.
"WHO WILL BLINK FIRST"
Nepal's civil war has cost 11,000 lives since 1996. Diplomats worry the revolt could be spinning out of control and Nepal could become a haven for international terrorist groups or drugs trafficking. The United States and Europe want to avoid a Maoist takeover.
The stakes are even higher for giant neighbour India, Nepal's biggest trading partner and its largest supplier of military hardware.
India shares a long, open border with Nepal, is home to millions of Nepalis and is worried that Nepali Maoists have already forged links with left wing extremists in India.
Delhi's reaction to the king's move was uncharacteristically blunt, but analysts wonder what lies behind the bluster. It may have to learn to live with the king, they warned.
"India cannot allow the Maoists to come to power," said South Asia expert Kalim Bahadur. "It is caught between a rock and a hard place.
"But it can put economic pressure on Nepal, and Gyanendra will have to think about his options also. The question is who will blink first."
Sukh Deo Muni, professor at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University and an authority on Nepal, argues India should keep up the pressure by reviewing or suspending military assistance and making clear that it backs democratic forces.
Either way, it is a big test of Delhi's diplomatic skills.
China, characteristically, has described events in Nepal as an "internal affair", but conspiracy theorists in India already suspect Beijing's intentions.
Adding fuel to that fire was Nepal's curiously timed decision last month to close down the office of Tibet's spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, in Kathmandu.
Is Gyanendra currying favour with Beijing in a bid to play off one Asian heavyweight against another?
Not to worry, says Uday Bhaskar of India's Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. China has traditionally taken a "hands-off approach" to Nepal and is unlikely to interfere too aggressively in India's backyard, he said. Muni sees risks elsewhere, if India tries to mount a global coalition to force the king to back down.
"The bigger challenge will be keeping the Americans in line with Indian policy," he said. "Lest (Washington) be swayed by its anti-terrorism obsession."
Faced with the choice between a dictatorial monarch and a radical insurgency, Washington will soften towards the king in the weeks ahead, Muni said.
ISOLATED AND RUNNING OUT OF OPTIONS
In the end though, King Gyanendra risks being dangerously isolated both at home and abroad.
The Maoists accuse him of running a "feudal fascist clique", political parties say much the same in different words, and the world looks on in despair.
Muni sees two scenarios unfolding in the months ahead. One is that the king convinces the Maoists to come to peace talks and the two sides agree to a ceasefire. The king's standing will be boosted even if the talks ultimately come to nothing.
The second option is war, to take advantage of the state of emergency "to unleash the army on the rural youth and the Maoists", Muni said.
This, he said, could be the intention all along. "My very strong suspicion is that this is an army-driven coup."
But India reacted in Nepal though.
The talking heads at Jawarlal Nehru University postulate theories that only they understand. They don't know the internal happenings, because they don't care or know at the micro-level. It is always at the macro-level, what "China does", etc.
They think the king's move is somehow harming "democracy" which in reality was a 15-year orgy of corruption and inaction.
bump
IIRC, the King has not been king long; wasn't there some kind of story out of Nepal where the previous king shot his wife and then killed himself, or some such thing, and the present king is his brother?
Something like that.
"United States and Britain warned Nepal's king against a unilateral grab for power"
Are we getting ready to bring democracy to nepal?
Calling Bush's bluff.
The "official" version is that in mid-2001,the late King Birendra & the royal family were shot dead by their son & crown prince,over some disagreement on his choice of potential marriage partner.The crown prince then turned the uzi on himself.But quiet a few Nepalese people who live in the Gulf have told that the current king Gyanendra probably had some sort of definite hand in the massacre.There had been reports of differences between the brothers on matters like democracy ,ties with India etc.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.