The article here speaks to that at scenario # 5: After withdrawing in 1991 to a geopolitical position not too far removed from that of the Time of Troubles, how could Russians fail to notice the historical analogies? The only real alternative -- integration into a common defense structure offering wider assurances, such as NATO -- was denied them (while their neighbors got in, with the criteria bent to discriminate against Russian interests much in the manner described by Milanovic); they were left to think of their own security in traditional historic geographical terms.
Some argument! The author contends that the Russians are justifiably concerned of a parallel between the present and a century or so ago, but neglects to consider that the Eastern Europeans may be concerned about what happened a decade or so ago.