And They're Off! (The 2008 GOP handicapping begins)

The Weekly Standard ^ | January 31, 2005 | Duncan Currie

[RWR8189]

TOO EARLY FOR REPUBLICANS TO fret about 2008? Never! Before last week's inaugural fireworks had even been lit, the handicapping of 2008 Republican hopefuls was well underway. GOP sources slice the potential '08ers into an A-list and a B-list. Here's a quick roundup of who's where, as President Bush kicks off Act Two. First the A-listers:

* John McCain. To conservative eyes, the Arizona senator has a lengthy rap sheet. McCain championed campaign-finance reform. He piqued the Christian Right in 2000. He opposed Bush's 2001 and 2003 tax cuts. He supports embryonic stem-cell research. And he's backed a host of other media-friendly issues--anti-tobacco legislation, a patients' bill of rights, gun control, CO2 emissions caps--that conservatives spurn.

But after the 2004 election, McCain's star is rising. He campaigned robustly for President Bush. That helped quash the residual bitterness of 2000. Also, McCain gave a superb speech at the Republican convention, in which he made a cogent case for the Iraq war. Still, his maverick bent will prove a burden. McCain's other big minus? He turns 72 in 2008. His big plus? Thanks to his Vietnam heroism and crossover appeal, he's the candidate Democrats fear most.

* Rudy Giuliani. It's hard to gauge how badly the Bernard Kerik fiasco hurts Giuliani long-term. On the one hand, the ex-mayor remains wildly popular and can thrill Republican crowds. On the other, Rudy's rivals will no doubt hang Kerik around his neck (along with Giuliani's two divorces and marital infidelity). But leave Kerik aside. Giuliani's true Achilles' heel is his social liberalism. He supports abortion rights--even partial-birth--and same-sex marriage. Ditto gun control. To win a GOP primary, Rudy must pipe up about his conservative strengths, namely, fighting bad guys at home and abroad. For no matter how weak his hand might appear, Giuliani still holds two aces: his remarkable transformation of New York City and his post-9/11 resiliency.

Of course, as memories of 9/11 recede, so might Giuliani's stature as "America's mayor." He could always boost his stock with a successful Senate or gubernatorial bid in 2006. Rudy "will be an early frontrunner," says one GOP insider. But "ultimately, I don't think he gets nominated."

* Bill Frist. Unlike Giuliani's and McCain's, Frist's fortunes are partly tied to President Bush. As Senate majority leader, Frist will earn credit--or blame--based on how much of the Bush agenda he shepherds through. If Bush gets tax, Social Security, or tort reform, it will be a feather in Frist's cap. He has a two-year window. Self-term limited, Frist won't seek reelection in 2006.

The Tennessee senator projects an amiable, mild demeanor. But he is no moderate Republican. Certainly in a three-way Giuliani-McCain-Frist race, Frist would stand out as a staunch conservative. He would also be the GOP establishment's choice. Frist may lack the dynamism and perceived toughness of Giuliani and McCain. But post-2004 election, he sounds hardened, especially when talking judges.

* Mitt Romney. He could be the sleeper candidate. Of all the A-listers, Romney is the only governor. And historically, as conservative activist Grover Norquist points out, "governors trump senators." Many governors lack real homeland security credentials--but not Romney. He can tout his work as chief of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics. Nor is Romney a Massachusetts Republican in the William Weld mold. He's much more conservative, proposing hefty tax relief and bucking his state's highest court on same-sex marriage. Also, as a GOP insider notes, Romney is good on TV and "richer than Steve Forbes."

Romney's baggage? He's famously fuzzy on abortion. Primary voters won't like that. Then there's his faith. Will evangelical Christians pull the lever for a Mormon? An awkward question, but one Republicans have raised. Perhaps sensing this, Romney met with a gathering of evangelicals last week in Washington, before hosting a reception for Bay State natives serving in the Bush administration.

Now for the B-listers:

* Bill Owens. Colorado's governor once seemed a prime candidate. Conservatives loved him. He had taken on a bevy of Democratic interest groups and emerged triumphant. A September 2002 National Review cover story proclaimed Owens "America's Best Governor." Several months later, he pushed through a landmark school-voucher bill. Since then, however, Owens separated from his wife of almost 30 years. And in the 2004 election, Colorado Republicans took a thrashing, losing both houses of the state legislature. Owens can claim a slew of conservative feats. But he lacks a fundraising base, and his '08 prospects seem to be fading.

* Chuck Hagel. "Hagel has kind of fallen off the map," says a leading GOP strategist. Nebraska's maverick senator certainly strikes a unique pose. Hagel serves up red meat on abortion, taxes, guns, and spending, but also tends toward a dovish view of U.S. foreign policy. In 2002, he criticized Bush's "axis of evil" phrase as "name-calling" and rebuked the "rush to wage war" in Iraq. More recently, Hagel, a Vietnam vet, slammed Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld over the war's conduct. Such anti-Bush positions will hardly endear him to rank-and-file Republicans.

* George Allen. As one GOP insider puts it, Virginia's junior senator would be the "conservative's conservative" in the race, à la Phil Gramm in 1996. But whereas Gramm came across as a curmudgeon, Allen, 52, sports youthful good looks and an easygoing charm. He also boasts executive experience. Allen governed Virginia from 1994 to 1998. A reliable pro-life tax-cutter, he sits just to the right of George W. Bush. "Allen runs as Ronald Reagan," predicts Norquist.

* George Pataki. Not only is he the most liberal Republican in the '08 pool, Gov. Pataki also finds himself overshadowed by fellow New Yorker Rudy Giuliani. Pataki's only saving grace could be his home state. Were he able to deliver New York, that would cripple the Democrats. Otherwise, Pataki doesn't have much going for him.

This list is far from exhaustive. One of the most enticing--but very unlikely--candidates remains Dick Cheney. A few right-wingers have already pondered a quixotic "Draft Cheney" campaign, urging Bush's VP to throw his hat in the ring. Cheney has long disavowed any interest in the presidency. But with ample prodding, and a solid second term for Bush, who knows?

Then, of course, there's Florida governor Jeb Bush, whom the Economist calls "the best candidate by far." Jeb has publicly ruled out a White House bid in 2008. But his paper trail makes him a conservative glamour boy. The genial Jeb is a pro-life, pro-voucher, tax-slashing, budget-trimming Reaganite. Absent a marquee '08er, Republicans will look favorably on Gov. Bush--and wish he had a different last name.

 

Duncan Currie is an editorial assistant at The Weekly Standard.

[mowkeka]

And one other note...Democrats DO NOT FEAR John McCain. If John McCain wins the nomination, it's a victory for them!

[JeffersonRepublic.com]

"can't be much worse than a last name like "Bush""

Watch it!

NorCalRepub, with a name like that, you must live North of Sacramento.

Holtz
JeffersonRepublicans.com

[gjpino]

I'm also looking at it from an electability standpoint...sitting Senators are rarely elected President.

John Kerry was in an executive position before he was a Senator as well, and it didn't help...

[ncweaver]

I would like to see how well Tancredo would do in the primaries. I think it would surprise a whole lot of Republicans how much support he would get because of his strong stand on illegal immigration. He have GOT to stop this "invasion" ASAP

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

Media worship aside, the RATS were practically begging us to nominate McCain in 2000. They've got to have some serious dirt on him.

[mowkeka]

I disagree completely. If the country electred Bush 41 and 43 (twice), there is no reason to think that Jeb can't win.
JEB IN 08!!!!!!

[princess leah]

"Plus, the whole Mormon thing is a bit-overblown"

HA! We have a WOMAN gay governor here in Arizona because we put up a "nice-guy" mormon in Matt Salmon back in 02 and he lost because so many women voted for "the woman" candidate...

NOPE, gotta pick a winner - the dems are packing their hopes on Hillary, so we had darn well better come up with a winner, not some "nice guy" that'll get beat with a stick by you know who! (actually it would be her broom, but who's splitting logs here!)

SOOOO, how about a CONDI RICE and JD HAYWORTH combo! Remember, Condi will bring in an unusual block of voters - black women and all other women who hate Hillary (just think of all the women who slept with Bill for starters!)

[My GOP]

I don't think outside of Nixon, anyone after has ever held a senate seat and eventually gone to the white house.

I belive there has only been four Nixon, LBJ, JFK and
who ??


John Q. Adams, Andrew Jackson, William H. Harrison John Tyler, James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, James Garfield, Benjamin Harrison, Warren Harding, Harry Truman, John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and Richard Nixon all served in the Senate. I hope that's all. I'm doing this off the top of my head. Only Harding and Kennedy were sitting Senators when they were elected.

[SAWTEX]

And one other note...Democrats DO NOT FEAR John McCain. If John McCain wins the nomination, it's a victory for them!


Weekly Standard list with him at the top? Crystal
will not give up. I think McCain would get some crossover
but would it be enough to make up for the ones of us who
would not be at all excited about voting for him.

[Dan from Michigan]

Nixon was a US representative, not a senator.

I believe the only senators to ever win were
LBJ (As VP and incumbent)
Kennedy (Direct)
Harding (Direct)
Not sure before then.

[JohnBDay]

I don't see Rice running for President. The main reason is that she's loyal enough to the President that she would not run without his premission. I doubt Bush would give her premission because she would probably be the only candidate directly tied to the administration, which would be seen as an implict endorsement from Bush.

Also, the nature of the job of Secretary of State (frequent traveling to foreign countries) would make it difficult to campaign in the primary season. She'd have to resign as Secretary of State by mid-2007 at the very latest, probably more like early-2007.

[Irish Eyes]

Rummy/Rice. What a combo that would be. At least we'd have fun with the media.

LOL... The media would go nuts.. I really like George Allen, I hope that he will run.

[My GOP]

McCain's not my first choice but if its between him and Hillary I'll be passionately supporting McCain. He will be 1000 times better than Hillary. It would be foolish for conservatives not to vote for McCain in that situation. Sure he doesn't agree with conservatives and Republicans on 100% of the issues but Hillary agrees with us on 0% of the issues. Four years of Hillary will be a disaster. Four years of McCain won't. Heck, I don't agree with Bush 100% of the time(see immigration) but I still voted for him.

[JeffersonRepublic.com]

Romney/Martinez not bad...

Holtz
JeffersonRepublic.com

[smonk]

---I doubt Bush would give her premission because she would probably be the only candidate directly tied to the administration, which would be seen as an implict endorsement from Bush.---

by that logic, though, vice presidents would never run for president, would they?

[JeffersonRepublic.com]

Tom Ridge(pres)/ Mel Martinez(vp) I could back that ticket.

[AVNevis]

If we choose from just the A list, I pick Romney. But if we can choose from wither A or B I choose Allen.

[ncweaver]

Bottom line....
We HAVE to win....
Jeb can win...
nuf said.

But I'd love to know what Carl Rove is thinkin'

[My GOP]

Nixon was a U.S represenative from 1947-1951 and a SENATOR from 1951-1953. See my previous reply about the number of people who have served in the Senate and became president. Sorry to seem so persisent but I memorized all the presidents when I was in 3rd grade and right now I'm the Ken Jennings of presidential trivial. If you want to know the answer to a presidential question, ask me. If I don't know, then I'll find it in one of my 10 president books.