I haven't ever really looked into the problem. Since it doesn't matter where the first life came from for Evolution to exist, it's irrelevant. (course Sadsack doesn't understand that point)
But the "goal" molecule that can self-reproduce and mutate could be a huge number of different sequences. I have no idea how many possible sequences might do that, but it's got to be considerable.
And since we're talking about just a molecule reproducing and mutating, it could be realy simple.
Then, the process is in parallel. How many sub-living molecules are in play at once, worldwide. 24/7/365 by how many billion years it took to launch.
Just my guess, but I can't see how life couldn't form under those odds on a planet with anything like our conditions.
Since it doesn't matter where the first life came from for Evolution to exist, it's irrelevant.Yeah, had it been a thread about abiogenesis it would have real relevance, even if the problematics are simplified to uselessness in this "math". It's simply impossible to know the entry points to the problem, at least with our current collective knowledge, and even how many there are. Garbage in - garbage out.