SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO GET BLASTED WITH A STORM OF HISTORICAL PROPORTIONS!
FXUS61 KBOX 220242 AAB AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 942 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2005
...00Z ETA HITS IT EVEN HARDER... .UPDATE... AFTER FURTHER REVIEW AND COORDINATING WITH OKX...WE WILL RUN AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO BRING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NOW PUSHING ONTO CAPE COD BACK TO EASTERN MA COAST SAT MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO NE AND THEN E. THIS SCENARIO ACTUALLY IS REMINISCENT OF JAN 99 WHEN WE WERE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND PARTS OF EASTERN MA WERE HAMMERED BY OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS BEFORE ANYTHING FROM THE SYNOPTIC SCALE STORM EVER ARRIVED.
00Z ETA IS STARTING TO ROLL IN...AND ONCE AGAIN YOU GOTTA BE IMPRESSED. IN FACT, YOU NEED TO GET TO THE SUPERMARKETS ASAP AND STOCK UP ON MILK, BREAD, BATTERIES, AND MST3K MOVIES. IT'S DUMPING 3" QPF INTO SE CT AND MUCH OF RI 03-06Z SUN THEN ONTO CAPE COD 06Z-09Z...THAT WOULD ROUGHLY TRANSLATE TO 3-4" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES OVER MANY HOURS!!! BASED UPON WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN PREVIOUS ETA RUNS...WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO GET THUNDER REPORTS NEAR S COAST...MAYBE EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO...BUT ALSO FARTHER INLAND FROM CSI BANDING.
FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH...24HR QPF IS UP TO 4.75" ALONG AND SE I-95 AND SNOW ALGORITHM SHOWS 30" SNOWFALL IN 12HRS THERE! THIS LENDS MORE CONFIDENCE TO OUR GOING FORECAST OF HISTORICAL STORM THAT MAY BLANKET SOME AREAS WITH NEARLY 60" SNOWFALL.
WE DECIDED TO EXTEND HIGHER POPS INTO SUN MORNING AS DEFORMATION ZONE OVER INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE AND DROP SE TO COAST. WE ALSO DECIDED TO LEAVE OUR POSTS IMMEDIATELY AND HEAD FOR HOME. AS A RESULT, THIS IS GOING TO BE OUR LAST FORECAST FOR A WHILE. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT WE MIGHT BE IMPROVING THINGS TOO QUICKLY SUN MORNING AND WE COULD ACTUALLY HAVE POOR CONDITIONS LASTING INTO MON AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SE ZONES...AS WINDS REALLY GET CRANKING...UP TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SOME AREAS... CHECK OUT 00Z NGM MOS...74-89KT WINDS AT ACK AND 63-67KT AT BOS SUN. MRPCWN GUIDANCE HAS 94KT ALSN6 AND 89KT BUZM3 AT 12Z SUN!
HOLY CRAP...WE ARE OUTTA HERE!
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.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 424 PM EST)... A POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS WINTER STORM ACCOMPANIED BY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY TO HAVE DEVASTATING IMPLICATIONS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORING. THIS STORM IS EXPLOSIVE AND SURE TO CAUSE MASS PANIC AMONG THE ELDERLY AND JOHN KERRY VOTERS.