What are the chances the forgeries will be caught? What are the chances that the fact name may be a close match to a name on the watch list.
Odds are in their favor, moving across the border and not being scrutinized by professional LEO's.
"What are the chances the forgeries will be caught? What are the chances that the fact name may be a close match to a name on the watch list."
I don't know... Given essentially unlimited resources, they could even buy legitimate passports from many countries I suppose... A "close match" might get your prints checked, but if they haven't done anything to get on file yet they are clean.
Is it your opinion then that tramping through the desert from the Mexican border is the MOST promising way to sneak in this country, again, having unlimited resources ?