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To: Savagemom

Two mistakes in your analysis.

You are assuming that the changes take place at the same time.

You are assuming that the end result is given. This is identical to assuming a particular deal of a set of cards will occur (odds 1 in about 10**67) whereas some deal will occur.


96 posted on 01/19/2005 10:31:55 AM PST by Doctor Stochastic (Vegetabilisch = chaotisch is der Charakter der Modernen. - Friedrich Schlegel)
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To: Doctor Stochastic; JeffAtlanta

RE statistics - sorry to have not been clearer - of course the changes don't take place at the same time, and they would happen in parallel across an entire species, but this still doesn't explain a lot - i.e. why isn't there more variation in the outcome? With so many changes occurring during the transition from one species to another, why did so few of the billions of potential combinations work out to be new species? And can chance alone still account for the complexity seen at the micro level? It is still more parsimonious to assume that there was a guiding intelligence (God or otherwise) at work with a blueprint in mind. If I were to stumble across a watch lying on a beach, I would naturally assume something so complex were designed by an intelligent being, not that it were to have been formed on its own by chance.
For me, the bottom line is this. I don't think religion or 6 day creation (sorry, guys, but I don't buy the science of that any more than I do evolution by chance!) should be taught in public schools. But I do resent the fact that I had to be a 35 year old with a PhD in psychobiology before I knew that evolutionary theory has some big holes and that alternative theories exist. Exploring these alternatives is becoming more and more of a "hot topic" in science, and kids do not need to be sheltered from alternate theories, but encouraged to examine all of the ideas on the subject and make up their own minds. All of my science textbooks say that certain animals have similarities because they evolved from a common ancestor - as if this is a proven fact. It may be so, but it may not, and it is poor science instruction to state it as fact.
Speaking of poor instruction, I need to get back to my homeschooling duties! I'm glad people are talking about this, though!


153 posted on 01/19/2005 11:50:40 AM PST by Savagemom (Homeschooling mom to 3 boys)
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