"The Confederaxy would have dissolved into a cottection of Balkin-like states eventually. The United States of America was threatened...."
Jersey, Jersey, Jersey......we'll never know, will we?
It is equally plausible that the North, understanding their folly and the limitations of federal power written into the constitution would have come around to the correct (constitutional) way of thinking and later reaffirmed the 10th amendment and reconciled with the South without war.
As it was, they revoked the 10th amendment and government hasn't stopped growing since, nor will the federal government stop growing until it is forced to do so, probably under another threat of secession or equally dramatic event.
Balkanized like 1861 New York City Mayor Fernando Wood openly advocating secession to remain a neutral party in dealing with north and south.
What do you base that on?