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To: palmer

We seem to be going in circles. No one argues that the SST of in the Sargasso was warmer than than it is now. What Keigwin put it down to is a shift in the currents. Different currents - different temperatures. I did go through this before with WOSG.

If you want to argue that a warming in the world caused a change in the NAO which caused a warmer current to move then fine. But that is not what Soon says or that you have argued.

Wake me if you find something good.


165 posted on 01/20/2005 10:52:37 AM PST by Yelling
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To: Yelling
We seem to be going in circles.

I am making steady progress. You are the one repeating yourself. There wasn't a 0.4 C warming since 1980, there is a 0.1 to 0.15 degree bias in that estimate. The increase since 1980 is a deviation comparable to many other decades in the past and doesn't show up in some of the proxy measurements (e.g. briffa-1998).

The answers I have gotten so far are:

* there were decades in the MWP (and even in the LIA) warmer than the 80's and 90's.
* There was an increase in temperature during the 1900's as a whole, but mostly concentrated before 1950.
* There was variability between periods throughout history that match the variability in this century.
* The Mann 98 deliberately smoothed out historical data to hide that variability.
* That paper did not smooth the 1980's and 1990's and used surface measurements with bias in place of proxies.
* I can conclude, so far, that hockey stick is an artifact.
* But I can't make the MWP warmth conclusion yet globally, I need to look at more data.

166 posted on 01/20/2005 11:27:20 AM PST by palmer ("Oh you heartless gloaters")
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