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Crude Prices Rise Above $48 a Barrel (Oil Continues Steady Climb)
Forbes ^ | January 13, 2005 | Staff

Posted on 01/13/2005 1:07:48 PM PST by Jomini

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As Russia's new Euro policy pulls against the dollar from one direction, the Islamic gold dinar pulls from another with the result that Oil is now no longer primarily a commodity but increasingly the currency of choice. Combined with the agreement in DC that regime change in Iran will take place this year and we see a pre "Osirak-05" premium of $5-$10 being integrated into crude prices in addition to other bullish factors.

With the election over, the Administration has no reason to muzzle this run north by adjusting margin requirements and such as last Fall. When a score of Iranian nuclear facilities are toasted and the US fleet catches multiple doses of Sunburn then $65 will look very cheap.

J

1 posted on 01/13/2005 1:07:53 PM PST by Jomini
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To: Jomini

i hope oil goes to $100 a barrel. then maybe this country will start looking for ways to become energy self sufficient. its sad these third world fascist states got us by the b****.


2 posted on 01/13/2005 1:11:44 PM PST by philsfan24
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To: philsfan24
"third world fascist states got us by the b****."

The article indicates that the traders and the speculaters have us by the b****.

3 posted on 01/13/2005 1:25:43 PM PST by Ben Ficklin
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To: philsfan24
i hope oil goes to $100 a barrel.

Sounds like an Al Gore gut-wrenching transformation. That would cause a lot of misery to everyone in the world if that happened.
4 posted on 01/13/2005 1:55:19 PM PST by microgood (Washington State: Ukraine without the poison)
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To: Jomini
The world may not be coming to an end just yet.   I'd agree that the oil price changes in '74 and '79 made life difficult, but what we're having now is a bit more manageable.

In fact, the jump we're having now isn't even as bad as the one Clinton had in the late '90's, and if that didn't kill us this one won't.

Just because the MSM uses this spike for Bush-bashing and they didn't for Clinton only means the MSM are a bunch of democrats.  Trust me, it doesn't mean your b**** are in any danger what so ever.

 

5 posted on 01/13/2005 2:00:13 PM PST by expat_panama
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To: Jomini

Oil prices now change regularly almost on a daily basis in one hour 5%. That's more than half of what main western oil stocks changed since oil was $20. Example BP over last year: Example NYMEX Crude, January 10 (same pattern for the last weeks) : Now the question that the media avoids is : why ? Hurry up to give an answer. There's only few days left before it's too obvious
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1317990/posts


6 posted on 01/13/2005 2:04:23 PM PST by Truth666 (http://www.google.com/search?q=%22Proof+that+at+least+one+of+two%22)
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To: microgood

if oil went that high then i would hope our government could force them to start drilling in alaska. theres more oil there potentially then in all of the arab world. i just wish something big would happen so we would stop paying regimes our money for energy. they all are anti-american and fund terrorism. it just pissed me off.


7 posted on 01/13/2005 2:09:52 PM PST by philsfan24
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To: Jomini

Once the Iranian nuclear issue is confronted it is greatly expected crude oil & the entire energy complex shall rise considerably, since Iran is Opec's number two exporter.

Removing or seriously interrupting Iran's oil flow from the global market, although needed to hopefully topple the radical Islamic regimé, nevertheless will most likely trigger trader fear/panic, thus jacked up prices in short order.

8 posted on 01/13/2005 2:10:19 PM PST by M. Espinola (Freedom is never free)
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To: philsfan24

"theres more oil there potentially then in all of the arab world."

There's potentially more oil under my back yard than in all of Arab world. I haven't seen proof of either though.


9 posted on 01/13/2005 2:14:24 PM PST by OneTimeLurker
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To: Jomini

Soros is trying to manipulate the Election again.


10 posted on 01/13/2005 2:14:27 PM PST by You Dirty Rats (Mindless BushBot)
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To: M. Espinola
Re our plots in post #8 and post #5

Inflation has been a much bigger factor than the Bush-bashers of the MSM want to let on.   In real terms we have cheaper oil than we had during the entire Reagan Presidency.  

Not only is this not the end of the world, we can't even see the end of the world from here.

11 posted on 01/13/2005 4:48:38 PM PST by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama
I would agree inflation is being felt especially at the supermarket, contingent on which products. In relation to inflation adjusted energy costs in relation to either the first oil 'crisis' & gas lines of 1973 and then again when Islamic fanatics took control of Iran in 1979, it is correct the economic jolt is nowhere near as inflationary.

The question is as I stated before, once Iranian nuclear problem is brought to the front burner, removing Iran's crude oil exports from the international market, even though the U.S. is not dependent on the mullahs petroleum, other major economies are.

I firmly believe we shall indeed be witnessing another round of some what severe price hikes in part resulting from the very unstable nature of the current Iranian 'leadership'. These guys will not go down with out attempting to cause some serious damage to the Western economy if not prevented. Recall Saudi Arabia's vast oil fields are a short missile shot across the Gulf.


12 posted on 01/13/2005 5:09:21 PM PST by M. Espinola (Freedom is never free)
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To: M. Espinola
When I said that inflation was "a much bigger factor", I didn't mean that the oil price 'crisis' will hurt us with inflation, I was saying that when you compare the price of oil with inflation to the price in without inflation, it seems that most of this increase is just plain old inflation.   

We keep hearing about say, a health care 'crisis' (a doctor's visit cost 100 times what it cost in the days of Teddy Roosevelt) or an education 'crisis' where tuition fees are going to be out of the reach of young people unless their parents help.  IMHO this oil shtick may be the 'crisis du jour' but it's just here to satisfy everyone's need to feel bad.  You may have a lot of company when you say that those middle eastern heathens are bad because they're raising the price of oil.  OTOH, when the price of oil (in real dollars now, not this inflated stuff) goes back down, I'm not expecting to hear anyone suggest that maybe those heathens aren't so bad after all.

13 posted on 01/14/2005 2:48:56 AM PST by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama
I understand what you are saying on the economic front. However when the price of oil jumps from $30 to $50 and is sustained, there is bound to have inflationary effects filtering though the general economy.

Radical Islamic Iran, for instance, Opec's #2 producer/exporter has only one main source of revenue, the exportation of crude oil.

The billions earned via overseas crude sales are misused to spread Islamic terrorism around the globe. If Iran's oil exports were cut off how could the mullah run regimé sustain it's campaign of exported jihadic terrorism in Iraq, taking the lives of our troops & those of other nations?

The enemy has and is using the commodity of crude oil, including Saudi Arabia, to finance some of the worst problems of our era. It's high time we place the enemy on gas lines.

14 posted on 01/14/2005 4:24:04 AM PST by M. Espinola (Freedom is never free)
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To: M. Espinola

"The billions earned via overseas crude sales are misused to spread Islamic terrorism around the globe. If Iran's oil exports were cut off how could the mullah run regimé sustain it's campaign of exported jihadic terrorism in Iraq, taking the lives of our troops & those of other nations"

Exactly, the Arabs have us bent over the barrel.

Time to start drilling in ANWAR, reconstruct the rigs off the California coast and put that wind farm in on Teddy's sailing lane. The country's National and Economic security is at stake here.


15 posted on 01/14/2005 4:38:41 AM PST by Wristpin ( Varitek says to A-Rod: "We don't throw at .260 hitters.....")
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To: Wristpin
I concur. The Alaskan oil is a direct pipeline to the lower 48. All the baloney from the Left concerning offshore drilling or ANWAR, is any back-door method to for their masked agenda.

Radical leftist are always squawking about 'oil pollution'. Where was their outcry when Saddam henchmen caused the largest, deliberate act of oil pollution in the Gulf by blowing up all of the Kuwaiti wells in the first Gulf War? The answer is well known

Possibly by March a meaningful resolution to the 'Persian'(Iranian)terrorist problem will be underway.

If Iran's mad rush to gain offensive nuclear weapons is indeed being 'resolved',by late Winter - early Spring, then the present price of June-05 oil contract could look real cheap in retrospect.

16 posted on 01/14/2005 5:29:05 AM PST by M. Espinola (Freedom is never free)
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To: M. Espinola

Yes the NIMBY's feel it's more environmentally safe to tank the oil 11,000 miles through the terrorist infested waters of the gulf, then past the coastlines of umpteen different countries on the way here. They're very selfish.


17 posted on 01/14/2005 5:35:41 AM PST by Wristpin ( Varitek says to A-Rod: "We don't throw at .260 hitters.....")
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To: Wristpin

They might even change their minds, what's 'left' of them, rather soon :)


18 posted on 01/14/2005 5:57:36 AM PST by M. Espinola (Freedom is never free)
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To: M. Espinola
Generally when a bona fide crisis does arise, I write to Washington and say: "Don't just do something, STAND THERE!"  What exactly is it that you're wanting the feds to do, tax Iranian oil or something? 

 

19 posted on 01/14/2005 6:09:33 AM PST by expat_panama
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To: Jomini

The "fear premium", now embedded in the price of oil, seems to have been a good marketing ploy. What incentive is there for OPEC nations to reduce turmoil in the world? Want more money this month?, just up the fear premium.

I remember seeing a gas station in California had posted all the taxes levied on a gallon of gas and the corresponding agency doing the taxing. Kind of looked like the deductions on a persons paycheck. I can imagine adding a line showing the "fear premium" per gallon.


20 posted on 01/14/2005 6:39:26 AM PST by Cold Heart
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