It's more than reasonable to expect that the death toll because of the tsunami will continue to rise dramatically for months to come.
Posted on 01/12/2005 6:31:56 PM PST by ConservativeMan55
Edited on 01/12/2005 8:26:44 PM PST by Sidebar Moderator. [history]
It's right, give or take 10,000.
Indonesia's death toll nears 210,000
By TIM JOHNSON
Knight Ridder Newspapers
BANDA ACEH, Indonesia - An official document posted here says that nearly 210,000 people in Indonesia are dead or missing from the Dec. 26 tsunami, a death toll that appears to be far higher than officials have reported publicly. Rescue workers think even that number may be low.
The larger Indonesia toll would bring the total of dead and missing from the tidal surge across the Indian Ocean to nearly 272,000, ranking the tsunami as the fifth or sixth deadliest natural disaster in more than 300 years.
The new death toll came as Indonesian officials restricted the movements of foreign relief workers, U.N. employees and journalists in devastated north Sumatra, the Indonesian island that took the brunt of the tsunami's force.
Indonesia's vice president told the United States and other nations that have sent troops to deliver relief that their forces won't be permitted to remain in Sumatra longer than three months, and should leave as soon as their work is completed.
The chief of operations for the government's disaster-relief efforts here, Budi Atmadi Adiputro, said in a statement that it was "necessary" for all foreigners in Aceh province, at the northern end of Sumatra, to provide authorities with details of "their current and planned activities as well as the exact locations those activities will be carried out."
Indonesia, which emerged from three decades of military dictatorship in 1998, remains strongly influenced by the armed forces, some of whose officers are discomfited by the sudden presence of foreigners in a conflict-ridden province that's the source of huge earnings from natural gas exports.
Indonesian officials offered no explanation for the sharp rise in the number of dead and missing. Earlier this week, a Cabinet-level official put the toll in Aceh province at about 108,000, between those already buried and those known to be dead. Another 48,000 were missing, the official said.
But a chart posted at the entrance to the federal disaster-relief headquarters here offered different numbers.
Compiled by the Disaster Management Task Force for Aceh province, the document listed numbers of casualties by district in a variety of categories, including buried, known dead and missing.
The document gave the number of people known to have died in the disaster at 78,395 and said another 131,479 remained lost or missing. It said the information was current as of 9 p.m. Tuesday (9 a.m. EST Tuesday).
Asked about the document, an American working for the Indonesian government, Laura Worsley-Brown, said it was posted in response to reporters' inquiries about the numbers of dead and missing and was being offered in place of official statements.
Those returning from the field said they weren't surprised by the new numbers. Dr. A. John Watson, the president of CARE Canada, cited the town of Calang, halfway between the provincial capital of Banda Aceh and Meulaboh, which is on the western coast, as "a really hard-hit case. Eight or nine thousand people in that town were wiped out. About 1,000 survived." He said he expected the final death toll to be "significantly higher."
The precise death toll is unlikely ever to be known. Thousands of people were washed to sea, and their bodies probably never will be recovered.
But the new figures rank the tsunami in the same category as a 1976 earthquake in China that killed at least 255,000 people. The worst natural disaster since 1750 is thought to have been a flood in China in 1939 that killed an estimated 3.7 million people.
The travel restrictions announced Wednesday apply to all foreigners, including "individuals, country representatives, United Nations agencies, NGOs (nongovernmental organizations), or media in Aceh province," the government statement said.
The government said it acted out of concern that insurgents of the Free Aceh Movement might undertake violent acts and said military escorts would be provided in certain cases.
But aid workers said authorities might fear that relief groups or journalists would help the insurgents, who've been fighting for independence for the province since 1976.
Alwi Shihab, a Cabinet-level appointee of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, declined to say what would occur to individuals or groups that didn't register.
"We are sure you are civilized persons and will comply with regulations for your own safety," Shihab said.
The announcement said foreigners were free to work in and around the two hardest-hit cities, Banda Aceh and Meulaboh, a city near the epicenter of the massive quake and tsunami. For other locations, foreigners must send a request to a team led by the Aceh regional police chief and await a decision.
"It will not take long," Shihab said. "It will be within hours, not days."
Aceh has been largely off-limits to foreigners since early 2003, when a cease-fire broke down and martial law was declared. Shihab noted that a lower-level emergency rule that permits restricted civil liberties remains in effect.
Reaction among foreign relief officials ranged from concern about security in the countryside to apprehension that the government may be allowing security concerns to trump humanitarian needs.
Most, however, appeared so intent on providing aid to as many as 650,000 displaced people in Aceh that they took the restrictions as simply another hurdle in an already difficult situation.
I think they are giving an estimate.
I don't think they kept up with how many citizens they had.
From this article on WSJ.com: http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB110404235606809462,00.html?mod=todays_us_page_one#MARK
They have the "Official" number of dead in Tangshan, China (1976) 7.5 Magnitude @ 255k, but the estimate was 655k. In the 1900s (from article) officially China had 755k dead, using the 655k from the '76 quake they had 1,125,000 people die in quakes!
BS.
Sorry, I know a little about this area of the world. I lived in Aceh for four years, and I have traveled extensively in the area, including down the west coast where the earthquake and tsunami damage was worst.
This area was heavily populated, but with very bad road access to the outside world, even at best. Also, at that time, telecommunication was virtually non-existent, although I expect there have been improvements.
Ever since I saw the reports coming in, I knew that the death toll was multiple times higher than reporrted. Entire towns where I can say with assurance 10,000 to 15,000 people lived had been virtually ereased without a trace save the outline of house foundations. Multiply that by literally dozens and dozens of towns and hamlets along over 150 miles of coastline, and toss in a couple of cities of more than 150,000.
In truth, I think at least 300,000 have died in Aceh, and that number is probably conservative. It could be as high as 400,000.
These people were real, with familes, kids, relatives, farms, houses, relationships of love, and now they are dead, and all they had has been ripped from them in the blink of an eye. Claiming that the death figures are inflated to get money is mnaybe understandable, but neverhteless completely wrong.
The numbers are real, and almost certainly on the low side of real.
I was going to ask a similiar question, but mine was, "Isn't doubling ever other day a little high?"
definitely a scam - 100K increase just comes out of nowhere?
"The summit gave the United Nations overall control of coordinating the relief effort, but the U.N. official in charge on Sumatra complained that the U.S. military was failing to work with relief organizations.
"Michael Elmquist said that while U.S. military helicopters were speeding relief supplies to isolated villages, their crews were not spending enough time on the ground to assess survivors' needs.
"They don't stop their engines. They're on the ground for five minutes," Elmquist told reporters in the provincial capital of Banda Aceh, on the northern tip of Sumatra."
"The U.S. relief operation has won praise for reaching villages devastated by the earthquake and tsunami, which washed out roads and destroyed bridges. But Elmquist said he couldn't be sure what supplies the helicopters were delivering."
--------- What a pr*k.
Alms for the dead, alms for the dead...
My calculations are based on daily figures for the first week. It's been two weeks; they won't find any more alive.
It's more than reasonable to expect that the death toll because of the tsunami will continue to rise dramatically for months to come.
I "deployed" for two years to Germany, and was unarmed for the duration.
Terrorists were actively targeting USA military members at that time.
Put the footrest up in your armchair.
You will feel much more comfortable!
nope.
Ah yes, the 72 virgins.....that splains these multiplying numbers.
The sailors on the deck of the USS Cole were unarmed.
Houston, we have a problem.
While I basically agree, there are simply times when the moment requires a special approach to a situation.
In a former life, as a Coastie, I once had to deploy on a boarding party to conduct a boarding of a U.S. sailboat that was unfortunately lying at anchor in Mexican waters. It really needed to happen, but the state department at the time required that we be unarmed, and the cutter had to stick offshore in international water. Seems there's this little problem where delivering armed troops unauthorized into the national waters of another nation is technically "an act of war". The small boat delivered us the 12 miles to the boat and we did the boarding, basically only armed with clubs. I've never felt so vulnerable. But that's the way it had to be.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.