Posted on 01/10/2005 8:43:06 AM PST by areafiftyone
Those who would stick their heads in the sand and maintain that Sen. Hillary Clinton could never be elected president are in for a rude shock, according to the latest data from the Fox News survey.
In a poll taken last month, Americans said they felt the New York Democrat was “qualified to be president of the United States” by 59-34 percent. Clinton showed strength among all traditional Democratic voters, winning the approval of Sen. John Kerry supporters by 80-13, blacks by 80-8, all women by 64-29 and unmarried women by 69-24 and people under 30 by 73-20.
But she also did well among more traditionally Republican constituencies. Men said she was qualified by 53-40. Southerners agreed by 55-36, as did those earning more than $75,000 per year, who felt she was qualified by 58-39. While 80 percent of liberals felt she was qualified, so did 59 percent of moderates and 43 percent of self-described conservatives. Incredibly, so did 33 percent of Republicans and 37 percent of Bush voters.
Of course, many of those voters would not actually support Hillary, and the Fox News poll was careful to precede the question by saying, “Regardless of whether you would vote for Hillary Clinton or not, …” the breadth of her acceptability indicates that she has passed the national threshold for political viability.
The Fox News poll tested Hillary against several possible 2008 GOP contenders and found that she ran ahead of Florida Gov. Jeb Bush by 46-35, ahead of New York Gov. George Pataki by 41-35 and ahead of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) by 40-33.
Nor is there any basis for believing the conventional GOP wisdom that a Hillary candidacy would trigger a backlash among men, conservatives and Republicans.
When Fox News matched the former first lady against Jeb Bush in a trial heat, Hillary’s numbers were similar to those former presidential candidate Kerry racked up in a parallel test.
Among men, for example, Hillary defeated Jeb Bush by 44-39 while Kerry broke even, 42-42. While 23 percent of conservatives supported Hillary against the president’s brother, only 21 percent backed Kerry in a similar contest.
Geographically, Hillary beat Southerners Jeb Bush and Frist in the South, beating Bush in the red-state region by 42-41 and Frist by 38-37. And, in the critical Midwest, where most swing states are located, Hillary ran 11 points ahead of Jeb Bush, 10 ahead of Frist and six ahead of Pataki.
The strongest candidate against Hillary is, of course, Rudy Guiliani, whom an earlier Fox News poll showed beating her by almost 10 points. But the former New York City mayor will have a hard time winning the Republican nomination. Can a pro-abortion-rights, pro-affirmative-action, pro-gay-rights, pro-gun-control, pro-immigration moderate win Republican primaries?
Ultimately, the only Republican who may be able to beat Hillary is Bush’s nominee for secretary of state, Condeleezza Rice. Able to appeal to black and female voters without sacrificing support among whites and men, Condi could be the only figure who stands between Hillary and the White House.
And, unlike Rudy — and also unlike Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) — Condi can probably win the nomination. A social conservative who will elaborate her largely traditional views on important values issues as an inevitable part of her service as secretary of State, Rice can win primaries where Guiliani cannot and beat Hillary where neither Frist nor Sen. George Allen (R-Va.) nor Jeb Bush nor Pataki can.
Will Condi run? It is very important that she does. But it is very important to end the Republican complaisance about a Hillary candidacy. The assumption that she is radioactive among moderates and will self-destruct is comforting but completely untrue. Hillary will be the strongest Democratic candidate since her husband ran.
Like Bill, she will tack to the center and take a traditional line on controversial social issues like gay marriage. But we must always remember that while Bill is a moderate who becomes a liberal when he must, that Hillary is a liberal who pretends moderation when she has to.
He got about 49% of the vote.
"I don't think Kerry faced any difficult questioning once in an entire year."
I disagree. Kerry faced difficult questioning, to which he adroitly did not respond. I will concede however that most of the difficult question did not come from the press.
I agree - the next few years will be interesting! :)
I sure hope you are right. We need to keep the Republican coalition together. I would like to see Bush get "stronger" on spending and immigration. I hope he gets the message . . .
Now, if the Republicans screw up and put up a real slug as candidate with some unforseen skeletons in the closet, all bets are off. AND, if the Republicans refuse to attack her for fear of being labeled as "mean" and beating up on poor defenseless women, that could sway my thoughts too.
Either way, against Hillary, it's definitely the Republicans race to lose.
Kerry did not win Ohio, so if she loses it, she's not losing ground. The question is whether she can win Kerry's Blue States and Florida. Kerry did poorly in Florida, but it was because Bush is popular here. In 2008, we won't have Bush on the ticket. Instead, we will have the social security and medicare hotpotato.
Which Blue States is Hillary going to lose? Certainly not NY or New England. Even New Hampshire went for Kerry, and she could still win even if she lost New Hampshire, provided that she takes Florida and the other Blue States.
She would win CA, WA, DC and Hawaii. OR and PA might be tougher, but probably in Hillary's column. Illinois is a slam dunk for Hillary, and probably Michigan as well. That leaves MN and WIS. So the question is whether we can come up with a GOP nominee who can beat Hillary in those two states. I give her the edge because there aren't really any Midwestern GOP candidates, with the exception of Coleman, and the ticket balancing act is one that she can play just as easily as the GOP.
I'm not saying she's a shoo-in. I'm just saying that those who discount her candidacy are fooling themselves.
What a picture! Beelzebub's daughter with the fangs out and the evil gleam in her eye and the grin on her face! I shudder to think what will happen to the USA if she is elected in 2008 - Heaven forbid!
If she wins, for her to get the treatment she tried to give Nixon and we did give her hubby - Impeachment - would be great!
Jail time would be nice too!
And I hope it all happens between nov 2007 and Jan 2008 so we don't have to put up with her but we do get to watch her kiss everybodies butt on the campaign trail!
Yep. Another blatant non sequitur from our Legacy Media friends.
"Qualified, regardless of your vote" = "Could win the election"? What crackpots.
This is not outside the realm of possibility.
she will put Richardson on the ticket - her electoral strategy is all the Kerry states, plus some combination of NM, AZ, NV and CO - all heavily Hispanic states - to put her over the top. Our side needs to be looking at Wisconsin and Minnesota.
anyone who think she cannot win, given the Republican slate of unknown candidates with low name recognition, is dreaming.
Actually, that is a pretty good strategy, but it doesn't do much to get Florida. I guess she's going to have to win here based on mere demogoguery. Entirely doable, I'd say.
Kerry was not "crushed". A 60K vote swing in Ohio, and he would be sworn in this month. Mondale was crushed, that's what a "crush" looks like.
Once again, Dick Morris:
Opens the lid to his sewer, wets his finger and sticks it in the air to see which way the wind is blowing!
Today the wind is coming from the left, way left.
Toe sucker, close the grate, and climb back down into your sewer!
For example, it is my opinion that Hillary is a Marxist piece of scum. But even I have to concede that she is "qualified" to be president. She's over 35 years old. She's a U.S. citizen. And she's got some experience as a U.S. senator. And being First Lady for eight years counts for something too. But that said, I'd move out of the country before I would ever vote for that miserable shrew.
For those who think she can win, I'd like to know how they think it possible for her to get to 270 electoral votes. New York, maybe California, Connecticut and New Jersey. Then what? I'd include Massachusetts but they already showed they won't vote for a liberal woman. Republican Mitt Romney defeated a Hillary clone for governor just over a year ago. And decisively at that.
In other news, Karl Rove is reportedly in a very grand mood today. Sources say that Rove was estatic that his red banner towards a senator went over so well that a) the base is ready to accept anyone as a Republican, and b) Democrats are actually starting to think that a Northeastern Liberal Senator has a shot at the White House.
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