Jobs Americans Won’t Do

nationalreview.com ^ | 1/7/04 | By Mark Krikorian

[paltz]

Today the president announces his plan for a vast new guestworker system, which would grant amnesty to millions of illegals currently in the United States, as well as import millions of new workers from abroad. (The president will also call for an increase in permanent legal immigration beyond the current rate of one million a year.

I make the argument against amnesty in the cover story for the , but here I want to look at the basic assumption underlying the whole Bush plan: that there are jobs Americans simply won't do, so that the importation of foreigners is essential. Whether these foreign workers are illegal aliens, guestworkers, or permanent legal immigrants is a detail to be worked out by us, the argument goes, but our need for them is unchanged.

Even many opponents of the proposed Bush Amnesty assume this to be true, leading them to propose new and improved guestworker programs, with provisions for stricter controls against permanent settlement, greater incentives to return, tighter enforcement against unscrupulous employers, etc.

As well-meaning as such efforts may be, the basic assumption is false — there is simply no economic reason to import foreign workers.

If the supply of foreign workers were to dry up (say, through actually enforcing the immigration law, for starters), employers would respond to this new, tighter, labor market in two ways. One, they would offer higher wages, increased benefits, and improved working conditions, so as to recruit and retain people from the remaining pool of workers. At the same time, the same employers would look for ways to eliminate some of the jobs they now are having trouble filling. The result would be a new equilibrium, with blue-collar workers making somewhat better money, but each one of those workers being more productive.

Many people fear the first part of such a response, claiming that prices for fruits and vegetables would skyrocket, fueling inflation. But since all unskilled labor — from Americans and foreigners, in all industries — accounts for such a small part of our economy, perhaps four percent of GDP, we can tighten the labor market without any fear of sparking meaningful inflation. Agricultural economist Philip Martin has pointed out that labor accounts for only about ten percent of the retail price of a head of lettuce, for instance, so even doubling the wages of pickers would have little noticeable effect on consumers.

But it's the second part of the response to a tighter labor market that people just don't get. By holding down natural wage growth in labor-intensive industries, immigration serves as a subsidy for low-wage, low-productivity ways of doing business, retarding technological progress and productivity growth.

That this is so should not be a surprise. Julian Simon, in his 1981 classic, The Ultimate Resource, wrote about how scarcity leads to innovation:

It is important to recognize that discoveries of improved methods and of substitute products are not just luck. They happen in response to "scarcity" — an increase in cost. Even after a discovery is made, there is a good chance that it will not be put into operation until there is need for it due to rising cost. This point is important: Scarcity and technological advance are not two unrelated competitors in a race; rather, each influences the other.

As it is for copper or oil, this fact is true also for labor; as wages have risen over time, innovators have devised ways of substituting capital for labor, increasing productivity to the benefit of all. The converse, of course, is also true; the artificial superabundance of a resource will tend to remove much of the incentive for innovation.

Stagnating innovation caused by excessive immigration is perhaps most apparent in the most immigrant-dependent activity — the harvest of fresh fruit and vegetables. The period from 1960 to 1975 (roughly from the end of the "Bracero" program, which imported Mexican farmworkers, to the beginning of the mass illegal immigration we are still experiencing today) was a period of considerable agricultural mechanization. But a continuing increase in the acreage and number of crops harvested mechanically did not materialize as expected, in large part because the supply of workers remained artificially large due to the growing illegal immigration we were politically unwilling to stop.

An example of a productivity improvement that "will not be put into operation until there is need for it due to rising cost," as Simon said, is in raisin grapes]. The production of raisins in California's Central Valley is one of the most labor-intensive activities in North America. Conventional methods require bunches of grapes to be cut by hand, manually placed in a tray for drying, manually turned, manually collected.

But starting in the 1950s in Australia (where there was no large supply of foreign farm labor), farmers were compelled by circumstances to develop a laborsaving method called "dried-on-the-vine" (DOV) production. This involves growing the grapevines on trellises, then, when the grapes are ready, cutting the base of the vine instead of cutting each bunch of grapes individually. This new method radically reduces labor demand at harvest time and increases yield per acre by up to 200 percent. But this high-productivity, innovative method of production has spread very slowly in the United States because the mass availability of foreign workers has served as a disincentive to farmers to make the necessary capital investment.

But perhaps immigration's role in retarding economic modernization is confined to agriculture, which, after all, is very different from the rest of the economy. Nope. Manufacturing sees the same phenomenon of a scarcity of low-skilled labor yielding innovation while a surfeit yields stagnation. An example of the latter: A 1995 report on southern California's apparel industry, prepared by Southern California Edison, warned of the danger to the industry of reliance on low-cost foreign labor:

In southern California, apparel productivity gains have been made through slow-growth in wages. While a large, low-cost labor pool has been a boon to apparel production in the past, overreliance on relatively low-cost sources of labor may now cost the industry dearly. The fact is, southern California has fallen behind both domestic and international competitors, even some of its lowest-labor-cost competitors, in applying the array of production and communications technologies available to the industry (such as computer aided design and electronic data interchange)." (Emphasis in original)

Conversely, home builders, who are still less reliant on foreign workers than some other industries, have begun to modernize construction techniques. The higher cost of labor means that "In the long run, we'll see a move toward homes built in factories," as Gopal Ahluwalia, director of research at the National Association of Home Builders, told the Washington Post several years ago. But as immigrants increasingly move into this industry, we can expect such innovation to spread much more slowly than it would otherwise.

But surely immigration is needed fill jobs in the service industry? After all, without immigrants, who will pump our gas? Oh, wait — we never imported immigrants for that and so now we pump our own gas, aided by technology that lets us pay at the pump — thus we have fewer attendants but more gas stations and get in and out faster than we used to when we trusted our car to the man who wore the Texaco star.

Other innovations suggest how, despite the protestations of employers, a tight low-skilled labor market can spur modernization even in the service sector: Automated switches have replaced most telephone operators, continuous-batch washing machines reduce labor demand for hotels, buffet-style restaurants need much less staff that full-service ones. As unlikely as it might seem, many VA hospitals are now using mobile robots to ferry medicines from their pharmacies to various nurse's stations, eliminating the need for a worker to perform that task. And devices like automatic vacuum cleaners, lawn mowers, and pool cleaners are increasingly available to consumers. Keeping down low-skilled labor costs through the president's vast new guestworker plan would stifle this ongoing modernization process.

The idea that a modern society like ours requires the ministrations of foreign workers, because there is no other way to do get these jobs done, smacks of the apocryphal quote from a 19th-century patent commissioner: "Everything that can be invented has been invented."

— NRO Contributor Mark Krikorian is executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies and a visiting fellow at the Nixon Center.

[JFK_Lib]

OK, so let me see if I can sum up your argument here.

Since CIS (?) led by Mark Krikorian is a 'spin off' of FAIR, and FAIR is suspect because it is 'comfy' with a Dr Tanton, who is suspect because he is part of a 'network' that includes various population control advocates?.

That is followed by an assertion that Mark Krikorian is also suspect because he once worked for a Dan Stein who has taken money from organizations associated with White Supremacist organizations?

The entire anti-illegal immigration majority of America is suspect and disregadable due to some obscure network ofpopulation control advocates taking money from a claimed white supremacist group that can afford to throw around $1.5 million?

That is one of the most ludicrous and convoluted examples of character assassination through guilt-by-association that I have ever seen.

Why dont you just join the ranks of the far left and say that all of America is racist to the core?

Then we will know what to do with your comments.

[usadave]

Wall Street Journal

"During a immigration subcommittee hearing in March, Mr. Cannon had the gumption to question the executive director of CIS, Mark Krikorian, as well as to challenge Roy Beck, who heads NumbersUSA and serves as "spokesman" for CFAW. After first denying it, Mr. Krikorian was forced to admit that CIS is a spin-off of FAIR.

"In fact, CIS, FAIR, NumbersUSA, Project-USA and more than a half-dozen similar groups that Republicans have become disturbingly comfy with, were founded or funded (or both) by John Tanton, a retired doctor in Michigan. In addition to trying to stop immigration to the U.S., appropriate population-control measures for Dr. Tanton and his network include promoting China's one-child policy, sterilizing Third World women and wider use of RU-486.

"FAIR, where Mr. Krikorian once worked, is run by Dan Stein and shares advisers and personnel with CIS and other members of the Tanton nexus. As our Jason Riley noted in a March op-ed, "By Dr. Tanton's own reckoning, FAIR has received more than $1.5 million from the Pioneer Fund, a white-supremacist outfit devoted to racial purity through eugenics."

I see that you have once again copied and pasted that article from the extremely biased, pro-open borders, and pro-illegal immigration Wall Street Journal. I also see that this article mentions Rep. Chris Cannon, who is pro-illegal immigration, and who received an award from MALDEF, a brown supremacist organization that practices racism and which is extremely biased, pro-open borders, and pro-illegal immigration. The WSJ, MALDEF, and Chris Cannon....I guess birds of a feather really do flock together.

[boris]

"Number cruncher numbskulls make my teeth hurt."

Flunked Economics 101, eh?

Any job which can potentially be performed by robots will eventually be performed by robots.

Offsetting the initial investment, robots do not go on "strike" (think Cesar Chavez), take days off, require medical benefits, family leave, workers' compensation, salary, raises, sick days, etc. They don't vote Democratic, either.

There are already commercial robots which can clean toilets.

Removal of zero-skill workers would simply accelerate the trend toward using robots in jobs which require no thinking, such as ditch digging, trash collecting, dish washing, etc.

--Boris

[Kornev]

You see this in the media at all? hmmmmmm, nope.

Trust me, the dems/hillary are going to make this a critical issue soon enough. They'll risk ticking of their base (minorities) in order to cut off Republicans on this issue.

We have to, just HAVE to, undercut them on this and make it an issue now. Make it clear that illegal aliens can't cut our standard of living. Make it a Republican issue that outsourcing and illegal work won't undermine our economy.

If we don't, we're really giving up a huge opportunity.

[Kornev]

When robots design better robots than you can, then what? Humans will simply cease to be relevent and I suppose shall be replaced. That's what you're advocating.

I'd suggest maybe implimenting a phased system where the more automation is happening the more abortions and other birth methods are increased. That way, we can make the transitition somewhat easier on us.

[boris]

"When robots design better robots than you can, then what? Humans will simply cease to be relevent and I suppose shall be replaced. That's what you're advocating."

I'm saying what will happen.

Robots cannot "think". The true job of humans is to think, design, plan, develop. IBM's old motto: "Machines should work, people should think."

I suppose eventually machines will be able to think. I am sort of a "hard AI" person. But so what? As someone (Minsky? Hans Moravec?) said: "the human race is the first species in history which has the potential to design its evolutionary successor," or words to that effect.

A robot so good would just be the next step in evolution. What makes you think we are the end state, or should be?

A character from the movie 2010 said something like: "A person is a person, whether he is made of carbon or silicon."

--Boris

[FBD]

"What the idiot does not understand is that vegies will rot in the field. No, they won't even get planted.

-One word: mechanization.

This John Deere tractor here is guided by GPS. (My cousins are in farming, by the way.)



Cotton Pickers of the 1800’s:


The modern day cotton picker; (not ONE illegal immigrant required to run this machine!):

" Houses will not be build."

Nonsense,
I'm in construction, and I know many, many American citizens in every trade, from doing concrete foundations, framing, sheetrocking to roofing:
ALL American citizens of every ethnicity. EVERY DAMN ONE OF THEM.

Yards will not be upkept."

-That's a national emergency??? YARDWORK?
Mow your own damn lawn. Or are you above that?
By the way, I know plenty of Americans with yard work businsses. One in our area is a cop, and he does lawns in his off time. Ya think he's here illegaly?

"Street maintenance will cease."

B.S. again. I have a very good friend in the paving business. Same story as other constructione trades. these guys make very good money. American citizens want these HIGH paying jobs, many over $20.00 an hour.

"Overgrown brushy land will not be cleared."

Nonsense. I have friends who run all sorts of land clearing equipment. ALL Americans

"Autobody and fender work will not be done."

-Nonsense. I just had auto body work done, the guy has lived in this country all his life. The color of his skin is irrelevant also.

"Garbage will not be collected.

-Again, you ever heard of mechanization??? In our little town, none of the garbage collectors are even Hispanic, One of the guys running the automated garbage truck is a friend. He makes $18 bucks an hour. He grew up in this town.

"Restaurants will lose half their cooks and have no busboys.

-Really? I know of some Chinese resteraunts that will do just fine. But why don't you just come out and say illegals from Mexico. And by the way, my neighbor is Hispanic and owns a Mexican reteraunt; every one of his employees are citizens, or have their green cards. It can be done.

- What the kind of person doesn't have a clue about what American citizens do in this country...
Where do you live, anway?

[The Spirit Of Allegiance]

If you vacumed up all the illegals our economy simply would not work.

Sorry, you're just totally wrong on this. Most of the unskilled jobs done by illegals are not time-critical, they are conveniences and services rendered and if they did not get done but we still had safe borders we would be better off. The time-critical unskilled work--such as produce harvesting--well, let the price rise to cover increased wages.

We need free-market economics, not bureaucrats at the USDA artificially controlling crop and dairy prices just like Russia's failed economic model. Unskilled seasonal retail workers are a longtime American tradition at Christmas. So during the summertime, let the 4H and Future Farmers of America and other kids (and adults!) work seasonally. Better an all-American The Grapes of Wrath than this Multicultural crap version of that book--with migrant ILLEGALS who clog and close down our medical systems and now are lining up for SOCIAL SECURITY as well.

The semiskilled jobs such as construction are time-critical and the unions, temp services and help-wanted ads exist in this country to recruit and place such workers.

I realize you seek to summarize the situation and so please understand I am NOT attacking you personally. However, those who live according to your premises show themselves:

(1) too focused on the short-term pleasures and not on necessary sacrifice (instant gratification and laziness vs. sacrifice;

(2) shortsighted, blind or ignorant about national security and economic terrorism; and

(3) willing to absolutely WRONG our Boy Scouts and other adolescents--our posterity--by letting their opportunities for youth jobs and character-building be STOLEN away by felonious aliens and the profiteers here who take advantage of them.

[The Spirit Of Allegiance]

I posted my #48 before having read your #47--megadittos from a former Kansas farmboy....

[PokerGod]

I really like this idea.

Bush is doing a great thing with this proposal.

Immigrants are the backbone of America. Look how great he did with Hispanics this year. John Kerry would be president 2 weeks from now if it had not been for the Hispanics coming out in droves for him. He improved his 2000 percentage by 10 points.

It's also good for capitalism in general, to have more people in the country working jobs. Free immigration is an essential part of a capitalism system.

[PokerGod]

edit: capitalist, not capitalism.

[PokerGod]

There are some hints of racism in that post.

Who are you to say that all immigrants are lazy bums who come here to get on welfare? They aren't even eligible for welfare. And they won't be getting Social Security unless they pay into it.

[gubamyster]

Number cruncher numbskulls make my teeth hurt.

If you could come up with some FACTS to refute CIS's well founded & well footnoted studies, then you might have some credibility. Otherwise your posts are nothing more than emotional rants.

[FBD]

from one former farmboy to another;
Mega-dittos to your #48!

El Rushbo fan?
:^)

[The Spirit Of Allegiance]

Actually I believe most who come here--legally or illegally--WANT to work hard...

As re: racist, no way. As a white man, the first full-time employee I ever hired for my own company was a single black mother and I have hired numerous minorities. I am the last person who'd be a racist. God made us all unique and equally worthy of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

I am, however, a nationalist. For me, America must come first, our stability, health and survival. From that strength, we can reach out while protecting ourselves. Triage! Just as a wounded mother must care for herself so she can stay alive and care for her wounded infant. Rush's comment about the world needing more capitalism is dead on. But becoming multicultural/Marxist with zero border security doesn't help Mexico in the "teaching a man to fish so he can eat for a lifetime" way -- it only perpetuates the "give a man a fish so he can eat today" situation of learned helplessness (and lets terrorists in as well). Cross-border welfare, so to speak.

As re: welfare, too many people born HERE are indeed lazy bums; part of that blame goes to fatalism that since there are no good jobs, why bother; it is also is partly to blame on the system--which we the People have permitted to be put into place and which we must dismantle and fix. Arnold's not going to do it in CA. Bush probably won't do it in the US. We gotta do it at the grassroots level.

Thanks for letting me clarify.

[The Spirit Of Allegiance]

megadittos!--probably more a Rushbot than a Bushbot! Just posted more "calm ranting," as well. ;^)

[FBD]

Welcome newbie! I agree with you that:
"Free immigration is an essential part of a capitalism system."

-The key is immigrants who want to come here LEGALLY, and assimilate into our society, not collect our social security, and go back to Mexico . However, with all the socialist freebies today, that is no longer the case. Here's a couple of threads, I hope you will peruse:


NOT ALL ILLEGAL ALIENS COME HERE TO WORK

.
Terrorist Alley: Terrorists using the Arizona/Mexico border to cross into the U.S.

Swedes Reach Muslim Breaking Point

. Mara Salvatrucha Street Gang (The threat at our southern border)

---

[FBD]

>"And they won't be getting Social Security unless they pay into it."<

Yeah...after 18 months of paying into Social In-security, they'll be eligible to collect it...when they return to Mexico, where they can retire.

Michelle malkin has researched this subject.
Giving Social In-security to Non citizen "guest workers will bankrupt social security BUT GOOD. Check this article out:
http://www.townhall.com/columnists/michellemalkin/mm20040107.shtml

"The criminal raid on Social Security" by Michelle Malkin

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/michellemalkin/mm20040107.shtml

[dagnabbit]

Today the president announces his plan

When will Bush (or is it Carter?, Kerry?) do his usual stammering and stuttering on this issue?

If it's in the evening, a good drinking game would be a sip every time this wretched clown says "compassion".

[rolling_stone]

...Who are you to say that all immigrants are lazy bums who come here to get on welfare? They aren't even eligible for welfare.....

"Furthermore, according to an analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies, based on Census data collected in 2002, 28.1 percent of the estimated 3 million legal immigrant-headed households in the state and 31.5 percent of the 600,000 illegal immigrant-headed households participated in at least on one of four major welfare programs. The total estimated welfare spending, cash and non-cash, given to legal immigrant families in California was roughly $6 billion, with illegal immigrant families accounting for $850 million in 2001 alone."
http://www.diversityalliance.org/docs/article_2003nov16.html

AND WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THEY DON'T GET WELFARE? illegals aren't eligible to work either but some how they do...why do you think Calif passed prop 187 (shot down by one fed judge and never appealed)and Arizona prop 200? people are tired of paying for illegals..


http://republican.assembly.ca.gov/members/index.asp?Dist=66&Lang=1&Body=OpinionEditorials&RefID=886

http://citizensforjustice.org/gray/timesprenatal.html