Posted on 01/01/2005 9:24:43 PM PST by steve86
I spent 3 days of R & R at the Las Vegas Mandalay Bay last week, and thought it would be fun to spend a day driving around town doing some on the ground reconnaissance of the most expansive real estate bubble in the US. Based on my 8 hour survey of the Summerlin and Anthem suburbs of LV, I can say with 90% certainty that the bubble has burst and prices may spiral down for years to come.
The latest finished phase of a Dell Webb development had over a hundred homes that had been completed back in August of 2004. I knew I had hit the information jackpot as I drove up and down the streets of Anthem, a new upscale suburb of LV, about a 20 minute commute to the Strip. It felt kinda like the twilight zone as my count indicated that only 10 percent of the homes were inhabited and almost half the homes had for sale or for lease signs out in front of them.
Note..each of these homes was approx 1600 sq. ft, single story on a postage stamp/5000 sq. ft. lot.
I stopped my SUV to talk to a 40ish gentleman who was doing some work out on his new driveway. I told him I was interested in the RE market in the area and he proceeded to give me 10 minutes of his long sad story about speculative investing in a bubble market. He said that every home in this neighborhood had been purchased by speculators back in early 2004, hoping to take possession of their home and then instantly flip it and make a quick 100k or more. I listened in stunned amazement as he told me that he and the rest of the speculators had paid between 600 and 700k for these crackerbox tract homes. As he was talking I did the quick math on what Dell Webb, the builder had into these homes and figured that he had no more that 130 - 150k into the land and the construction costs for each home.
The nice man in the driveway said that the bottom had fallen out of home prices back in Sept. and overnight the homes had lost over 150 - 200k in value. He had purchased two of them, hoping to make a killing and was deciding which of the two he was going to live in and which of the two he was going to try and sell. He was absolutely certain that prices were going to continue rising from here and I did everything I could to contain my astonishment as he tried to give me his rationale on why prices would continue up from here.
I asked him what these properties would rent for and he said that people were trying to get 1850.00 a month but that 1600.00 was probably what they were worth.
After talking to this fellow I did a little more research on the homes in this tract. Many of them had for sale by owner signs in them and some of them had a sell sheet with asking price taped to inside of the front window. On one street I saw 3 different sell sheets in 3 separate but almost identical houses. The asking price of one of the homes was $529,000 another was $429,000 and another was $395,000 and based on the fact that only 10% of the homes were inhabited, it didn't look as though 395k was attracting any interest.
As I drove out of this ghost town I noticed that a newly constructed school for the area had been named "Dell Webb Middle School" and I couldn't help but chuckle.
Easy money, hard fall Ping!
Maybe this will bring speculators back to the stock market where they belong.
Good news for California.... affordable housing for me!! Only 14% of the peeps in SLO county can afford a home. Many were bought by speculators for SB county. Last time the bottom dropped out only 12% could afford homes. It dropped by 1/4 of the price. I'm hoping for the same so when I'm ready to buy in about 1-2 years, I'll be prepped for some crazy forclosure or find some decent deals.
Oh, I don't know. This was all new development. Austin, TX, has gone through about three boom-bust cycles since I first moved there in the mid 70's. People overbuild and the bottom drops out for a while. However, the prices you're talking about here don't sound like bargain prices to a guy that's living in a two story 100 year old house with three porches and some nifty renovations (that I paid $73K for), it sounds pretty expensive.
Well, it does to me, too, since I've never paid more than 63k for a house.
I have to go -- will check the thread in the morning.
I was out in Vegas recently. You can drive for miles and miles outside of town and see development after development going up. It's a shocking thing to see.
as it has everywhere? been to the SF Bay Area lately? sheesh... the market was soft in 2000-2002 (meaning it was level). i think there will be a correction at some point (too much UP lately), but given the geographic constaints, and the Dem-dominated regional and state gummits, i see no change in the overall supply-demand equation, nor commute times. so, unless there is a crash across multiple business sectors, the housing prices in this are will continue to be driven by the income of dual earner professional couples... which right now, puts your FIRST home purchase at about $600K. want a 3/2 in a nice school district less than 30 minutes from work? try $900K and up. ouch.
Well, your analysis is a bit off.
Tis true the outrageous sellers market is now over as the supply of available houses is now equal to the demand.
The market was superheated and this caused a unbelievable runup in prices, which then resulted in a sudden, huge supply of new and resale homes put up for sale.
Obviously, this leads to a lowering of prices as the supply is now in line with demand.
As to a spirally down of home prices for years to come, that is not going to happen.
What is gone is the five buyers bidding tens of thousands over the listed price within the first hour of the house going sale - that was when there were no houses avaiable to buy.
I know. I moved here in October 2003 and found nothing available in the 1/2 acre, one story 3500 sf range.
We signed a contract for such a house in April 2004. Only the water lines are in and it now looks like April 2005 before it will be finished.
Why? No subs are available - they are so busy & booked up.
Oh yeah, hundreds of homes are done, waiting for closing, but Nevada Power can't put in the meters in those developments!
Its a boomtown and prices will go up & down.
40% of new buyers are from CA.
Average time on market is now 110 days instead of 110 hours.
New construction selling prices - not listed prices - are about $200 - 210 per sf.
that is the issue... expansion. areas with no room for expansion will be less likely to bust, as they are driven more by constrained supply than anything else. the biggest worry for these markets in CA is a big quake... took 10 yrs for the northridge market to recover.
If I am reading you right what has happened is that the speculators moved into the market and drove the prices up through the roof and then thought they were going to flip these homes for a big profit.
All these people were in on a sucker bet and thats about all.
If the size of these homes and lots are what you say we are talking about seriously overpriced property. As we all things it will settle and the true worth will become apparent.
Are there jobs to support all these new people?
2% unemployment since I've been here.
6-7,000 people per month moving to Las Vegas.
2% unemployment since I've been here.
6-7,000 people per month moving to Las Vegas.
How long can that be sustained? And, will other industries follow the people there? Tourist towns are horrifying and Vegas, in my opinion, the scariest of all - since it requires a constant flow of visitors who spend three days and then go home.
I am waiting for that quake.
I'm torn... my wife and I own here, which would make a big quake a bad thing, but we are on the east side of the san andreas which would give us ocean-front property ;)
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