Posted on 01/01/2005 1:05:52 PM PST by RaceBannon
Aftershocks can trigger quake in Assam, warn US scientists
Press Trust of India
New Delhi, January 1, 2005|16:57 IST
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For more information on quakes: Center for Earth Observing and Space Research » Strong intensity quake rocks Sumatra » Mild earthquake jolts Bangladesh » Quake aftershocks felt in Banda Aceh » Quakes continue to rock A&N Islands »
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Aftershocks of last week's killer quake off Sumatra are moving northwards and can potentially trigger a major earthquake in Assam, scientists in the United States have cautioned the Indian government.
The scientists at the Center for Earth Observing and Space Research in George Mason University in Virginia, who have been analysing the seismic data since December 26, have found the aftershocks moving towards north along 90-degree Ridge.
"If the sequence of these aftershocks moves further north then it may trigger a very big earthquake in Assam region, which is expected by the scientists since long time," Ramesh P Singh, a member of the team and Vice Chairman of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) Risk Commission said.
Singh said that the magnitude-5 earthquake on December 30 near Myanmar reported by the US Geological Survey was probably caused by the aftershocks.
Its epicentre falls on the trajectory of the aftershocks.
Bump for our friends overseas
Intense Aftershocks Registered
January 1, 2005 09:50 PM,
Laksamana.Net - Seismological agencies around the globe today noted an upturn in the intensity of aftershocks from Sunday’s killer quake.
Agencies from Indonesia, the United States, China, Hong Kong and France – to name just a few – have stressed that the series of strong quakes felt in Indonesia and India’s Nicobar and Andaman islands since Friday night (31/12/04) were not sufficiently strong to trigger a tsunami.
However, the quakes are being felt on the surface - further taumatizing surviviors of the disaster that has left an estimated 100,000 Indonesians dead and at least a further 50,000 dead in other south and southeast Asian countries.
A massive earthquake registering 9.0 on the Richter scale struck last Sunday just 60 kilometers from the coast of Indonesia’s Aceh province on the northern tip of Sumatra island sending waves of up to 15 meters roaring over its coastline and ricocheting through the Indian Ocean.
A worker with the Indonesian Red Cross in Banda Aceh told the detikcom website that the provincial capital was being shaken by slight tremors every four hours on average.
Aftershocks of more than 6.0 on the Richter scale have been registered everyday since Sunday’s disaster but most have been far beneath the surface of the earth.
Seismological agencies began noting an upturn in the intensity of the aftershocks on the surface Friday evening.
A spokesperson for the Jakarta Geophysics Bureau told AFP that three significant aftershocks with magnitudes of 5.3, 5.2, and 5.0 on the Richter scale were felt during the night in Aceh.
A strong quake was felt on Saturday (01/01/05) but international reports were initially muddled.
The US Geological Survey said a 6.5 aftershock occurred at 06.25 GMT just 10 kilometers from the surface centered 215 miles west of Banda Aceh. Aftershocks in the 4- and 5- magnitude range were also recorded.
There was some confusion when the Hong Kong Observatory also noted the 6.5 quake – but at 06.22 GMT - and the State Seismological Bureau of China said later that a quake measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale took place in the area at 08.25 GMT.
French seismology experts later confirmed that an undersea earthquake occurred off the Indonesian island of Sumatra at 06.25 GMT Saturday, reported AFP.
An official said that Chinese reports of another earthquake two hours later "must be a mistake because of confusion with local time and GMT."
Bengkulu Feels Quake
An earlier quake sent residents of Bengkulu province in north-west Sumatra running from their homes seeking higher ground.
The quake that struck at 11.38 Western Indonesian Time (04.38 GMT) had its epicenter 60 kilometers from the Bengkulu coast and some 30 kilometers beneath the surface of the earth, said head of the Jakarta-based Meteorological and Geophysics Board Edison Gurning.
He said the people all along the Sumatran coast are on high alert and many are traumatized by Sunday’s disaster, reported the detikcom website.
A major quake killed 102 people in Bengkulu province on 6 June 2000.
Jayapura in West Papua at Indonesia’s extreme eastern border was also rocked by a quake measuring 4.8 on the Richter scale on Thursday although no deaths or significant damage was reported.
In November quakes also hit Nabire, West Papua, killing 32 people and another levelled Alor island in East Nusa Tenggara province killing 30.
Seismic Survey
Following is a run down of registered seismic activity around the globe over the last two days taken from the website of the US Geological Survey. Further information can be found at http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin.
Updated as of Sat Jan 1 07:16:23 UTC 2005.
DATE-(UTC)-TIME Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude
yyyy/mm/dd hh:mm:ss degrees degrees km
2005/01/01 06:25:44 5.05N 92.26E 10.0 6.5
OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
2005/01/01 04:03:12 5.46N 94.45E 45.5 5.8
NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2004/12/31 20:13:49 36.85N 140.87E 90.3 5.1
NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2004/12/31 17:48:05 4.73N 95.12E 46.1 5.4
NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2004/12/31 16:15:44 7.67N 93.98E 20.5 5.1
NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
2004/12/31 14:38:46 5.11N 94.83E 48.2 5.6
NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2004/12/31 13:41:48 3.18N 95.23E 30.3 5.6
OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
2004/12/31 12:04:56 6.22N 92.91E 4.6 6.1
NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
2004/12/31 11:27:49 51.33N 174.16W 16.1 4.5
ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS.
2004/12/31 10:58:24 5.03N 94.80E 36.4 5.5
NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2004/12/31 09:57:00 7.62N 93.97E 23.3 5.4
NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
2004/12/31 02:24:01 7.13N 92.56E 11.9 6.3
NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
http://www.laksamana.net/vnews.cfm?ncat=33&news_id=7785
I'd take these guys with a grain of salt.
George Mason is a legitimate university, but none of the people involved with that center there seem to have any geological training at all (Kafatos is an MIT physicist however.)
Glancing at their papers they're pretty far out of the geological mainstream and their claims are a bit out there.
But if their "guess" turns out right, they get political capital and grants. On the other hand I don't mind people that see a possibility pointing it out. Kind of like we report & you decide.
Not mention the quakes that occurred just prior to this.
I am just waiting for the volcanos to start up now that the Earth moved...
I haven't seen a single report of a single volcano erupting that wasn't erupting before the 9.0.
I've notived that, too
These guys are legitimate scientists and publish in peer-reviewed journals; I just find it a bit odd they're all physicists and civil engineers and don't have a geologist on the team as far as I can determine.
They're on the fringes of the science. I also don't like that they make earthquake forecasts WITHOUT specifying a magnitude. That's not particularly useful or meaningful.
Predicting a magnatude would belikepredicting the annula snowfall while still in Autumn, though, dont ya think?
If you don't specify a magnitude the prediction is useless. There are thousands of M 2-4 quakes every day, that can be picked up instrumentally.
If you don't specify a magnitude you're basically guaranteed to be right every time you make a quake prediction.
Any scientist that accurately predicts a seismic or volcanic event deserves the Nobel Shake & Bake Award. $1.79 ain't bad for a lucky guess.
5.0 25 miles from San Salvadore
They are talking about a specific earthquake that has been characterized and expected for years.
"... may trigger a very big earthquake in Assam region, which is expected by the scientists since long time..."
Don't blame them because you are reading a document not intended for you.
It is hard not to speculate. There have been four relatively small quakes felt here in Chiang Mai, Thailand before and after the 9.0 quake. We were visiting friends at their clothing shop on the second floor of Wararot market here when one occured. It was quite noticable and scary when one considers how easily the market could collapse and how many would be killed in such a quake.
Since there has not been a history of recent severe quakes in this area, people are speculating that one is "due". The last big quake was in the 1500's and destroyed the chedi at Wat Chedi Luang. The story of that quake is very much a part of local history and, thus, on people's minds.
4. And Jesus answered and said unto them, "Take heed that no man deceive you.
5. For many shall come in my name, saying I am Christ..and shall deceive many.
6. And ye shall ear of wars and rumors of wars : see that ye be not troubled: for all
these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet
7. For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines
and pestilences, and earthquakes in divers places.
8. All these are the beginning of sorrows.
I would have a tough time sleeping on the beach. That's for sure!
"I'd take these guys with a grain of salt."
You got it. If USGS comes out with a prediction, then I'll listen.
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