I agree with your analysis.
I like Dick Morris's commentary. He was always on the money about the election. Everything he said Bush should do, Bush did.
I think the first debate was lost simply because of the camera comparisons, showing Bush smaller than Kerry. What they had to say meant nothing.
In the following debates Bush looked more formidable.
There will be an even bigger backlash against Hillary, but I agree with him when he says she will be moving to the middle with National Security issues and make us believe that she is as moderately republican as Guliani.
nick
Morris has been incorrect about a good many things as well. I like him generally speaking, but he's far from perfect in prognosticating politics.