Tehran Altering Ballistic Missile

As the controversy over whether Iran is conducting a secret nuclear weapons programme gathers momentum, new details are emerging about Tehran's ballistic missiles likely to carry such weapons.

The mostly likely delivery system, a liquid-fuelled medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), referred to in the US as the Shahab 3A, has been flight-tested several times in the past few months.

The Paris-based Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), in London on 2 December, claimed that Tehran, under what it alleged to be a " wider clandestine programme," is developing a new medium-range ballistic missile called the Ghadr-101. US intelligence officials believe the Ghadr 101 is the same as the Shahab 3A.

However,Uzi Rubin, former director of Israel's Ballistic Missile Defence Organisation told JDW: "It appears that there are two competing teams in Iran working on its future medium-range ballistic missile. The version that was recently tested [in August] and presented in public already deserves the title Shahab 4, as it is completely different from the previous Shahab 3. Everything but the propulsion system was changed, the range was increased, as well as the re-entry vehicle."

The missile has a modified nose section allowing it to hold a larger warhead and thus provide additional room for a nuclear device. Israeli officials have said the larger nose section is capable of separation and visually appears similar to that used on the Russian SS-9 intercontinental ballistic missile. "It is not a copy of a known missile but the new Shahab has a major-league design. It's clear that it is the work of seasoned missile engineers, probably Russian, rather than an experimental beginners," version, added Rubin.

Such extra room is vital as Iranian nuclear engineers would face major technical challenges in making the country's first nuclear weapon light enough and small enough to fit on its existing missiles, particularly without benefit of having conducted full-scale nuclear weapons tests. The weapon is believed by US officials to be an indigenous design although knowledge gained from blueprints of a working, but too large nuclear weapon, provided by the Pakistani nuclear scientist AQ Khan would be helpful to the effort. If true, the efforts would signify that Iran is further advanced in its nuclear weapons programme than previously known.

If there is one prediction that is a safe bet it is that Iran is going to be in the news bigtime in 2005.

Question--what has changed (if anything) regarding Israel's doctrine regarding Arab nukes since their 1981 attack on the Osirak nuclear facility? How did the Israelis allow Iran to build up a large number of nuke facilities when they refused to allow one in Iraq in 1981?

Something will happen to Russian and American relations in 2005; either we come closer together or we start approaching Cold War status again. I don't believe the status quo is possible, and Iran is a big reason why.

I'm looking foreward to the Iranian mooselimbs polishing the al Aqsa mosque off the Temple Mount with one of these things...

2 posted on 12/27/2004 6:19:44 PM PST by null and void (I refuse to live my life as if someone, somewhere will be offended if I laugh...)

Iranians are predominantly Persian. Iran's nuclear facilities are also hidden and dispersed. There is no Osirak type facility to make a one shot kill on their nuclear program.

I realize that and thus the question. Surely, the Iranians saw what happened in 1981 and knew that they had to have dispersed facilities and dummy facilities. The question is why Israel let it go this far, but the simple answer is that Iran's tactics made it impossible to prevent.

I believe that 2005 will be the year of major events in the Middle East. I do not see a "Cold War" type scenario in the Middle East. Once these Arab nations (and Iran) get strategic weapons, war will happen. They do not have the ability to be rational and sane the way America and Russia was during the Cold War.

4 posted on 12/27/2004 6:38:13 PM PST by Dont_Tread_On_Me_888 (John Kerry--three fake Purple Hearts. George Bush--one real heart of gold.)

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