O'Connor and Kennedy are not "conservatives."
I heard Bob Beckel today say that the GOP would "rue the day" if they change the cloture requirement because the Dems would use the new rule against them someday when they retake power. First, the GOP has not generally used the filibuster to prevent Dem appointees from receiving a vote anyway, which is one of the reasons we've got this problem. Second, if Frist can change this rule, then what on earth would prevent a Dem Majority Leader from doing so, when the time comes? What can they offer us that assures that if we keep the rule in place, they will do so as well? Nothing.
We've got nothing to lose by knocking it out now, and I think we should do so.
When Gay Marriage goes to the Supreme Court, the vote could be broken down like this:
In Favor of Gay Marriage: Stevens, Breyer, Souter, Ginsburg
Against Gay Marriage: Rehnquist, Scalia, Thomas
Swing Votes: Anthony Kennedy, Sandra Day O'Connor
It will be a close vote. If Rehnquist retires soon, his replacement will likely be against gay marriage and not change the line up of judges, on this and other cases. If Ruth Bader Ginsburg retires, for example, look for that to bring on a Bork or Thomas type of 3 ring circus confirmation, because a Ginsburg replacement could really tip the balance of the court.