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Terrorism Summary 01/12/05

We are currently about a week away from the Inauguration window. Currently, the radar screens are quiet. There is the potential that A.N.S.W.E.R may start something and terrorists could utilize the confusion. Increased activity in the Phillipines and Kuwait.

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01/12/04 Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW

1. Attack threat windows - America
01/12/04 Primary Window: January 19-21, 2005 - Presidential inauguration

01/12/04 Secondary windows:
Feb. 6 Super Bowl in Jacksonville, Fla.
11/23/04 This post is being maintained for a historical track - Godzilla
ACSA has predicted a nuclear attack within the next 3 months. This window ends approximately 02/23/05

2. Attack Indicators
01/12/05 There are currently no significant or otherwise indicators available.

3. Current Terrorist Operations

Al-Qa'ida / OBL
01/12/05 OBL and leaders have been relatively quite lately. Some commentary in the media suggests that Al-Zarqwai is concerned the OBL may hijack is Iraq resistance.

France
01/09/05 (condensed) French authorities carried out a special security exercise at Nice Airport on Sunday after receiving a threat of an attack from the Anti-Globalization Liberation Front who sent a letter written in German threatening an attack using the Zyklon B gas. Zyklon B is a hydrogen cyanide gas which was used by the Nazis to kill prisoners in the gas chambers at Auschwitz. In a month NATO defense ministers will arrive for a summit in Nice on France's Mediterranean coast.
http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1105299946.html

Iran
01/12/05 Concerns that Iran may have enough enriched uranium to make a bomb in as little as two months.

Afghanistan
01/10/05 (condensed) An Afghan militant group that kidnapped three UN workers last year has appointed a new leader after its old chief was arrested by Pakistani security forces, its new head said on Monday. “I have been made leader of Jaish-e Muslimeen,” Ishaq Manzoor told Reuters by satellite telephone. “The decision was taken by our Shura (council) and military commanders ... following the arrest of Syed Akbar.” The Jaish-e Muslimeen, a small Taleban splinter faction, abducted UN workers Annetta Flanigan from Northern Ireland, Kosovan Shqipe Hebibi and Filipino diplomat Angelito Nayan in Kabul on Oct. 28. The three were freed unharmed on Nov. 23.
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/subcontinent/2005/January/subcontinent_January296.xml§ion=subcontinent

01/10/05 A U-S commander in eastern Afghanistan says Osama bin Laden "could possibly be in" the country. He says the al-Qaida leader and other key militants may be in the region that borders Pakistan. But he tells The Associated Press that any information on them would be closely guarded. ….snip……
Meantime, the U-S commander says Taliban support could be fragmenting. He says it appears to him that the Taliban's "central core of leadership is unable to direct coordinated actions."
http://www.wstm.com/Global/story.asp?S=2787557

Iraq
01/07/05 A U.S. general and Iraq's interim leader offered separate warnings about the very real prospect that more deadly attacks would come before the Iraqi elections on Jan. 30. "I think a worst case is where they have a series of horrific attacks that cause mass casualties in some spectacular fashion in the days leading up to the elections," Air Force Brig. Gen. Erv Lessel told The Associated Press in an interview Friday. (excerpted)
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,143628,00.html

Indonesia
Monitoring - AQ attack watch through 02/15/05
Australia and Japan issue warnings on 15 Dec. over threat to a foreign hotel in Indonesia, hotel identified as Hilton Hotel in Jakarta. Indonesia is forcing a reduction in the relief efforts in order to reduce potential counter-islam influence on region. - Godzilla

01/09/05 The gunfire, which was heard near the U.N. headquarters in the provincial capital of Aceh, Indonesia, before dawn on Sunday, woke aid workers who have poured into the city, but hurt no one. ....snip...
http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/01/09/asia.tsunami/index.html

01/08/05 The Laskar Mujahidin set up a camp in Aceh province and posted a sign that read -- in English -- "Islamic Law Enforcement." Its members said they have been collecting corpses, distributing food and providing Islamic teaching for refugees.
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2005/01/08/2003218493 Godzilla - The Laskar Mujahidin is a jihadist extremist group, accused of involvement in Christian-Muslim fighting elsewhere in Indonesia.

Kuwait
Monitoring - AQ attack watch through 03/15/05
US Embassy on 15 Dec.: Credible information that terrorist groups are developing near-term plans for attacks against unspecified targets in Kuwait. Very active recently

01/11/05 A shootout occurred on 10 January 2005 in the Hawally suburb of Kuwait City between security forces and suspected Islamic militants. .snip.
Shortly before this incident was reported, the U.S. Embassy in Kuwait warned of the possibility of random attacks against Westerners in Kuwait by "an individual or individuals moving about Kuwait in a black colored small sedan." following the shootout, the embassy issued another message, warning, "At least one suspected terrorist, known to be armed and dangerous, remains at large. The two terrorists involved in the shooting may have been part of a larger group."
http://www.airsecurity.com/hotspots/hotspots.asp#102756

01/10/05 WARDEN MESSAGE FOR KUWAIT FROM US EMBASSY
January 10, 2005
The Embassy is issuing this urgent message because it has received credible information that an individual or individuals moving about Kuwait in a black colored small sedan intend to randomly attack Westerners. Americans who encounter suspicious vehicles matching this description should quickly but safely move away and contact the Kuwaiti Police emergency number at 777. http://www.intelcenter.com/

01/07/05 Kuwait heightened its security alert to the maximum level on Jan. 7. This is the second increase in the alert level since Dec 31 and it comes in conjunction with the US State Department warning on Dec. 15 of possible Islamic Jihadist attacks.
http://www.indiadaily.com//editorial/01-09-05.asp

Israel
01/10/05 Mahmoud Abbas was elected Palestinian Authority president by a landslide.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=535&e=1&u=/ap/20050110/ap_on_re_mi_ea/palestinians_election

Godzilla - Much remains to be seen whether or not he can / will bring the various terrorist factions under controll, or if he’ll continue in the Arafat manner and turn a blind eye.

Europe - General
12/23/04 Monitoring - AQ attack watch through 01/12/05
Several agencies have intercepted electronic communications pointing to Al Qaida's plans to launch a major attack over the next two weeks, Western intelligence sources said. Some targets in Western Europe include NATO headquarters in Brussels, a railroad hub packed with holiday travelers and Istanbul, Turkey. This window is closing with no actions.
http://www.geostrategy-direct.com/geostrategy-direct/

Thailand
Monitoring - AQ attack watch #1 through 01/31/05
Thai intel has reportedly warned about terrorist threats in Bangkok during the latter part of Dec. and early Jan.

Monitoring - AQ attack watch #2 through 12/31/05
Terrorists are plotting attacks next year at tourist resorts across Thailand, according to documents found in the house of a fugitive leader of the country's Islamic insurgency, a senior security official said. The documents show that in 2005, the militants plan to attack "soft targets" such as the tropical beach resorts of Pattaya and Phuket, which draw tourist from around the world.
http://www.trackingterrorism.com/Default.asp?dismode=article&artid=1305
This area was among the hardest hit as a result of the tsunami of Dec 26, 2004. Must watch carefully. Godzilla

01/12/05 No incidents, on-going relief efforts.

Germany
01/12/05 Police have arrested 22 members of a suspected criminal Islamic extremist network thought to be involved in recruiting for jihad, or holy war, Munich police said. The arrests capped an extended investigation of the group, suspected of helping terrorists and centered in the area of the southern German city of Ulm. …….snip………
There are signs the association has ties to the Al-Thawid and Ansar Al-Islam organizations, police said. One suspect apparently has attended an al Qaeda camp in Pakistan.
www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/europe/01/12/germany.arrests/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/europe/01/12/germany.arrests/index.html

Yemen
01/05/05 Monitoring - AQ attack watch through 03/01/05
Britain closed its embassy in Yemen on Dec 30, 2004 because of "there is specific information that terrorists are in the final stages of planning attacks against British targets and other Western interests in Yemen," and warned that terrorists were in the end stage of planning assaults against British targets in the country. ..snip..

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=540&ncid=721&e=6&u=/ap/20050105/ap_on_re_mi_ea/britain_yemen

01/12/05 No further information available.

Saudi Arabia
Monitoring - AQ attack watch through 02/28/05
Call for attacks on oil infrastructure in Iraq and Gulf region by Osama bin Laden

01/10/05 The German Consulate in Jeddah -- which is currently located at the Crowne Plaza Hotel -- will close indefinitely from 13 January 2005 for security reasons. The consulate does not appear to have received a specific threat, but a review of security measures following the attack against the U.S. consulate in Jeddah on 6 December 2004 revealed that security at the current location is insufficient..
http://www.airsecurity.com/hotspots/hotspots.asp#102718

Pakistan
01/07/05 Recent attacks on Christians and Westerners in Pakistan were part of a coordinated campaign by Pakistani Islamic militant groups linked to Al Qaeda and the Taliban, The Washington Post said on Saturday, quoting military and security sources.
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_11-8-2002_pg1_6

Phillipines
01/10/05 Several hundred heavily-armed Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) rebels reportedly attacked a Philippine army camp on 9 January 2005 near the town of Mamasapano, located approximately 37 mi/60 km south of Cotabato City on the southern island of Mindanao.
http://interestalert.com/brand/siteia.shtml?Story=st/sn/01100000aaa037fa.upi&Sys=siteia&Fid=LATEBRKN&Type=News&Filter=Late%20Breaking

01/07/05 Philippines police arrested 16 Islamic militants planning to carry out suicide bombings on a Roman Catholic procession in the capital this weekend. The suspects, including three women, were detained after police raided a Muslim library in downtown Manila.
"We seized three improvised explosive devices, a caliber .-45 and a caliber .38 guns," said Chief Superintendent Pedro Bulaong, Manila's police chief. Journalists on the scene said grenades were also found.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/126220/1/.html

01/07/05 Three homemade bombs and an array of weapons were confiscated by Philippine police in a raid Friday on an Islamic center in Manila. The Islamic center had been under surveillance for the past three months because of possible links to a ferry bombing on Manila Bay last year that killed more than 100 people. Police said that bombing, the worst terrorist attack in the country, was the handiwork of the al-Qaida-linked Abu Sayyaf group.
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/050107/ap/d87f6p5g0.html

Tajikistan
01/10/05 On 7 January 2005, the U.S. Embassy in Dushanbe issued the following Warden Message: "This message is being issued to inform American citizens in Tajikistan that there is new information that foreign fighters may seek to target Americans in Tajikistan.
http://www.airsecurity.com/hotspots/hotspots.asp#102718

United States
01/12/05 No overt terrorist activity.

4. Attack method.
11/23/04 No real change in the preferred method of choice of AQ which are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. However, aircraft are also still in the mix. There are special concerns regarding the use by terrorists of the following types of vehicles:

1. Uhaul type cargo trucks.
2. Gasoline / Propane supply / tanker trucks.
3. Emergency vehicles (ambulances, police cars, fire trucks)

Current alerts out for at least two stolen fuel/tanker trucks, a stolen crop duster and about a hundred propane tanks. It is uncertain if the thefts are linked to terrorism at this time, however they could be adapted for use in a terrorist attack.

5. Personnel
01/12/05 Nothing significant.

6. Significant meetings canceled:
01/12/04 No new cancellations.

7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
01/12/04 NYC is at a locally declared ORANGE where it had been since. 9/11/01.

01/12/05 Security for the President Inauguration will be at unprecidented levels. No announcement of the increase in terror level for D.C. yet, but suspect that they will do a local within the next few days.

GENERAL: Ongoing work to upgrade security at sea ports and airports.

8. Military operations.
01/12/05 No announced operations out of normal.

9. Dept of Homeland Scty. / State Department
01/12/05 No new announcements.

10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
01/12/05 At least a dozen cases of lasers being beamed into aircraft cockpits since Christmas are being investigated by the FBI. A cluster of incidents received wide attention between Christmas and New Year's Day, and the FBI says at least four more have occurred in the past week. Authorities have continued to rule out terrorism.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,144086,00.html

Godzilla - the additional, post-holiday lasings are troubling, however, the numbers and rate appear to have dropped off. A good thing is that the strength of the lasers appear to be low power, based upon the reports. If high-power lasers start showing up, then the concern factor should rise by an order of magnitude.

01/12/04 LEOs are still looking for stole tankers, propane tanks and a crop duster that could potentially be used for terrorist attacks - Godzilla