Posted on 12/23/2004 8:24:16 PM PST by hole_n_one
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Thu Dec 23, 5:40 PM ET
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By JOHN ANTCZAK, Associated Press Writer
LOS ANGELES - There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA (news - web sites) scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.
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There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.
On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."
The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month.
"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.
"In the unlikely event that it did hit, it would be quite serious. We're talking either a tsunami if it hit in the ocean, which would be likely, or significant ground damage," Yeomans said.
Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.
Asteroid 2004 MN4 takes less than a year to go all the way around the sun and on each orbit it passes by Earth's orbit twice, Yeomans said. It is also nearly on the same plane as Earth's orbit.
The asteroid will be visible for the next several months and the NEO program has alerted its network of ground-based observers to include 2004 MN4 in their searches.
Yeomans said there have now been about 40 observations, first from the observatory at Kitt Peak, near Tucson, Ariz., and this month from Australia and New Zealand.
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On the Net:
Near-Earth Object Program: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov
No.
The Mayan calender is based on the Venusian transits of the sun.
Their calender includes this year's transit, but doesn't go past the NEXT Venusian transit, which is in 8 years.
Most observers simply think that their calender was "stopped" around 1100 AD because they didn't see any reason to make one longer than 900 years in the future: After all, would you buy (or carve in stone!) a calender that won't be used for 1000 years from now?
When it comes to destruction, I am a lot more worried about a Islamic nut with a nuclear device then I am about this asteroid. I would dig a big hole in my back yard and build a shelter, but I figure with the universe's dark sense of humor the thing would land right on me.
The Mayan calendar has a "sun" (currently the fifth sun) which lasts more than 5000 years. The Venusian cycle is just one thing they kept track of. The main basis of their calendar was a 260 day period, along with a 365 day (ordinary solar year, pretty much) period.
Professor Says Mayan Calendar Does Not Portend Earth's Doom (2012AD)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/815326/posts
see also the "in reply to" link from this message. :')
I think Squanto (above) has the right idea. ;')
here's a link related to the one just posted by RightWhale:
Earth Lagrange/Trojan asteroids
http://www.astro.uwo.ca/~wiegert/etrojans/etrojans.html
Not sure I'd remarked on your tagline -- "All these moments lost in time, like tears in the rain." Probably did in another thread, it kinda comes back to me. I like the narration version better, and have seen that movie more than anything besides "The Wizard of Oz". :') It's a lame-oid thing, but I can't seem to look away. Nothing much like the book though. ;')
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
"Analysis based on 139 observations spanning 287.71 days (2004-Mar-15.1104 to 2004-Dec-27.8243)... computed on Dec 28, 2004"
The earliest date now is 4-13-2053, the last 4-14-2103. Watch the page at that link, it will probably change a lot from day to day.
"the survivors of the L5 Society"... heh... "that concludes the reading of the minutes. Yes, Bob? Wait. What's that droning sound?" [blam!]
Earth Trojan asteroids: a study in support of observational searches
http://www.astro.uwo.ca/~wiegert/preprints/pp7.html
Yeah, but delivery has been moved from 13 April 2029 to 13 April 2053. I'll be 102 years old! Wot phun iz dat?
I just put this on my list of "things to worry about". It's entry #5,926.
Yeah, that is quite a long wait. I'll be 94, going on 95. I guess the good news here is, there may be further refinement of the trajectory, bringing it back closer to us in time. And there's always those other, undiscovered threats from the skies. :')
I thnk it would be a lot easier to capture it into an earth orbit. The initial orbit would not need to be circular or anything even close. Even a highly eliptical earth orbit would mean frequent revisits and a chance to circularize the orbit at our leisure.
Absolutely. It would probably make a nice display in a museum. Or, perhaps, a sculpture at the new WTC site.
Make a darn fine paperweight,too, I'd assume.
Torino scale? Wazzat? Does that have something to do with a Ford Torino, Gran Torino, or Torino GT?
It's still at a Torino "1", but the dates have changed.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
The only date with a "1" is the 2053 encounter. Of course, these calculations don't take into account the very slight changes in trajectory from each encounter with the Earth. IOW, it will have to be revised regardless of the latest data (such as that which we'll all have tomorrow).
That's a beauty. I'm partial to the fastback Torino GT though. Got a pic? Later 4dr Gran Torinos looked like oinkers!
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