Coming geopolitical quakes

The Washington Times ^ | 12/15/2004 | Arnaud de Borchgrave

[Drammach]

Your scenario is as laughable as the other nonsense.

It is just as likely as the other nonsense as well.
and mine is more entertaining..

[Drammach]

Also, where will they get this 3-million-man army?

Can you say civilian draft?
China won't send it's entire military force.. They will send just enough to control large groups of draftees..
They will simply grab civilians off the streets and ship them over.. hand them a rifle, ammo, and some rice, and point them in the direction they want them to go..
This solves the problem of how to control the population as well.. anyone that isn't "certified" loyal is just gun fodder..

You haven't explained how the Chinese actually get ashore in the Western Hemisphere.

I thought I was being plain enough without going into great detail..
Regardless of what U.S. Naval forces are in the pacific theatre, it's logical to assume massive losses..
China's navy doesn't consist of a bunch of Sampans you know.. They have nuclear subs, aircraft carriers, destroyers, an air force, ... all the stuff the U.S. Navy has, some home-built, some made by the russians..
Add to that whatever North Korea can supply.
We might have to deal with confiscated Naval military hardware from Japan and Taiwan, as well as any naval/military ships etc. "conscripted" in Chinese ports of influence, like Hong Kong, Singapore, and so on.. regardless of the nation that owned them..
Even if U.S. forces are exceptionally lucky, we would suffer serious losses...
We might completely destroy the Chinese/Korean naval forces, but only at great cost..
Whatever would be left would be necessarilly used for defending our own shores..

Navies exist to protect shipping. Without any naval force in the Western Hemisphere, the Chinese invasion fleet dies before hitting the coast.

Firstly, the U.S. Navy has to still exist in order to control the Pacific..
I think I have already made a pretty good argument that that won't necessarilly be the case...

As for "stunning ignorance", let's just say active imagination..
Also, I have some "respect" for the enemy..
You obviously have none.. You apparently think the Chinese military consists of a few "coolies" in rice boats, armed with pitchforks..
Don't forget, The former Soviet Union never had the guts to take on China one on one.. (and that's been a few years, before China's "industrial revolution".. )
China is a serious opponent. It is one of the 2 greatest threats america has to face in the next 50 years..
( the other is Islamic terrorism )

Secondly, you have totally, completely, discounted ignored, or are ignorant of China's commercial shipping industry
The Chinese have super-ships, not just tankers..
COSCO possesses ships that come into harbor and load up on raw timber.. then completely mill, kiln-dry, saw into lumber, and in some cases, manufacture goods like furniture, all while at sea, during the return voyage..
Virtual floating cities/manufacturing plants..
Those non-military ships can be converted/used to transport troops.. even give them basic military training during the voyage..
No need to bother the navy with such mundane tasks as troop transport..

Take the time to read up on China, then reconsider..
And remember, if we are involved in actions in Europe, fighting militant Islam, where are at least HALF our military going to be??
Not in the pacific theatre my freind..

[Drammach]

Boy, thats one hell of a opinion!

I have been of the opinion that China is America's greatest threat in the next century since the '70's...
The fall of the Soviet Union only strengthened that resolve..

[Chances Are]

Uhh, exactly how much of the 7th Fleet do we have in Iraq/Afghanistan right now?

Just curious.

CA....

[Drammach]

Good question.. I would expect that there is at some of 7th fleet there, or others.
I believe we presently have significant forces in the Asian theater as well..
They are presently acting in a "show of force" capacity off the coast of N. Korea, China, Taiwan, Japan, Okinawa, and the Phillipines..
The U.S. government obviously has some "concerns" over Chinese influence in these areas, as well as N. Korea itself.... or our navy wouldn't be there...

[Poohbah]

Can you say civilian draft?

Yes. Can you say "civilians with deer rifles?"

China won't send it's entire military force.. They will send just enough to control large groups of draftees..

They will simply grab civilians off the streets and ship them over.. hand them a rifle, ammo, and some rice, and point them in the direction they want them to go..

This solves the problem of how to control the population as well.. anyone that isn't "certified" loyal is just gun fodder..

I thought I was being plain enough without going into great detail.. Regardless of what U.S. Naval forces are in the pacific theatre, it's logical to assume massive losses..

Actually, it isn't.

China's navy doesn't consist of a bunch of Sampans you know.. They have nuclear subs,

The most dangerous threat posed by ChiCom's small force of nuclear subs (all 5 of them) is that our sonar technicians may go deaf tracking them. They are L-O-U-D.

aircraft carriers,

Actually, they don't have aircraft carriers.

destroyers, an air force, ... all the stuff the U.S. Navy has, some home-built, some made by the russians..

No, they don't have everything the US Navy has. One big thing that they lack is logistics support.

Add to that whatever North Korea can supply.

In other words, not f***ing much...

We might have to deal with confiscated Naval military hardware from Japan and Taiwan, as well as any naval/military ships etc. "conscripted" in Chinese ports of influence, like Hong Kong, Singapore, and so on.. regardless of the nation that owned them..

The ChiComs won't be able to invade Taiwan unless they hire Louis Farrakhan to organize the Million Man Swim. Invading Japan is really out of the question.

Even if U.S. forces are exceptionally lucky, we would suffer serious losses...

Says who? The US Seventh Fleet may suffer SOME losses, but not that dramatic, and there's still US naval and air forces in the US proper.

We might completely destroy the Chinese/Korean naval forces, but only at great cost..

Not THAT great a cost. The Chinese and North Korean navies, combined, are massively inferior to the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force. Add the US Seventh Fleet into the mix, and they lose even more massively.

Whatever would be left would be necessarilly used for defending our own shores..

Which, as I pointed out, the ChiComs are trying to invade in your scenario.

Navies exist to protect shipping. Without any naval force in the Western Hemisphere, the Chinese invasion fleet dies before hitting the coast.

Firstly, the U.S. Navy has to still exist in order to control the Pacific..

OK, you mind explaining how it suddenly vanishes? A mere assertion that the Chinese will make it go away is insufficient. Absent using nuclear weapons against targets on the US mainland, you mind explaining how they accomplish this critical task?

I think I have already made a pretty good argument that that won't necessarilly be the case...

You haven't. The ChiComs do NOT attach that high a priority to their navy (China is a continental power, not a maritime power), and they aren't building a large, powerful navy that would be able to project power into the western hemisphere.

Absent that, Chinese shipping dies in the Pacific. Look at the size of the Pacific basin--it's almost half of the planet. They're on one side, we're on the other.

As for "stunning ignorance", let's just say active imagination..

There's "active imagination," and then there's what the Chinese call "chasing the dragon."

Also, I have some "respect" for the enemy.. You obviously have none.. You apparently think the Chinese military consists of a few "coolies" in rice boats, armed with pitchforks..

No, I don't. I merely don't ascribe magical powers to them. You, on the other hand, assume that they will be able to destroy the entire US Navy, and then successfully land three million untrained men in North America.

Don't forget, The former Soviet Union never had the guts to take on China one on one.. (and that's been a few years, before China's "industrial revolution".. )

Wrong answer. The USSR apparently used nukes during the 1968 Ussuri River fracas, and that convinced China that they were playing out of their league.

China is a serious opponent. It is one of the 2 greatest threats america has to face in the next 50 years.. ( the other is Islamic terrorism )

China is Enron with nuclear weapons.

Secondly, you have totally, completely, discounted ignored, or are ignorant of China's commercial shipping industry

No, I'm not. I just note that those ships will sink when hit by bombs or torpedoes.

The Chinese have super-ships, not just tankers.. COSCO possesses ships that come into harbor and load up on raw timber.. then completely mill, kiln-dry, saw into lumber, and in some cases, manufacture goods like furniture, all while at sea, during the return voyage.. Virtual floating cities/manufacturing plants..

Uh-huh. All that nice, expensive industrial plant.

Still sinks when they're hit, though.

Those non-military ships can be converted/used to transport troops.. even give them basic military training during the voyage.. No need to bother the navy with such mundane tasks as troop transport..

Troop transport has always been a function of the civilian merchant marine.

Keeping the transports afloat long enough to deliver living troops ashore has always required a navy. No navy, and the troops become shark food, particularly when the far shore is so far away.

Take the time to read up on China, then reconsider..

I've read up on China.

Take time to read up on the US Navy, the Chinese navy, plus how navies work, and why navies exist, then reconsider.

And remember, if we are involved in actions in Europe, fighting militant Islam, where are at least HALF our military going to be?? Not in the pacific theatre my freind..

You still haven't explained how the Chinese are going to get three million troops ashore in the Western Hemisphere.