The (POS) will run, but lose in the end. Your assertion spells out the true scenario on her viablity.
However, if she DOES run, I think that she doesn't have a snowball's chance. Figure that Lazio ran against her in 2000. He came to the election a year late, nobody knew who he was, he was running in arguably one of the more liberal states in the union, and his only platform was "Vote for me because I'm not her!"
I think he wound up with 45% of the vote. Not too shabby.