[Rockingham]

Your observation is correct. The current fall off in enemy activity is because Fallujah was a defeat for the enemy, who suffered major losses in men and material and being depriving of a sanctuary and base of operations. Great credit goes to our troops and their commanders.

Unfortunately, as one must expect, the enemy is reported to be planning a major wave of bombings, assassinations, and other attacks for the holidays so as to undermine the January 30 elections. Islamists and hired killers continue to flood into the country, with Syria revealed as their base for transit, resupply, command, and financing. Contrary to the public impression in the US, Allawi is regarded by Iraqis as corrupt and self-serving, not at all a Karzai type genuinely dedicated to his country.

The pessimistic side of me thus warns that we do not have a reliable and effective local government, and that while the January 30 elections must proceed, they will take place in a compromised security environment. If one wants an ominous parallel, Syria can be seen as emerging as the equivalent of the Cambodian sanctuary for the Viet Cong.

Nevertheless, the optimistic side of me sees that the elections will go on, and on schedule. They may yet prove to be the turning point in our favor if they produce a legitimate Iraqi government that will muster the active support of the populace.

The bottom line is that we have to be prepared for another spike of bad news and casualties and the prospect that the country may slip into civil war within a few months. I surmise that we have a plan B that consists of letting the Shia and Kurds ally and stomp the Sunni with our tacit approval, with a de facto partition of the country. Since the oil is not found in the Sunni areas, that might work out despite the appearance of failure and chaos that it will present.h

[topher]

the enemy is reported to be planning a major wave ...

If that INTEL is good, especially on the timing, then how and where roadblocks are setup can be changed just prior -- as well as adding some tricks and treats to those trying to bomb them.

In another thread, I alluded to blowing out the tires of cars -- and taking out the driver if the car fails to slow down -- at check points.

A car bomber might prematurely explode in such a situation -- tires going flat might set off the explosives.

Change the rules and take out the bad guys.

There are some possible things that might be done -- if our folks use intelligence and hard work to save lives.

Good INTEL [breaking the Jap Codes] and hard work turned the tide at Midway Island [WW II] -- the Japanese suffered a humiliating defeat to a much smaller US Force.

[Cedar]

"Islamists and hired killers continue to flood into the country,"

Any solutions for this?

[gregoris]

I agree re: the underreporting of the drop in attacks and with rockingham's comments and wish to add my own.

I think that President Bush really hit the trifecta with this election - the popular vote, the electoral vote, and to top it all off - Arafat dies!

I truly believe that the wrangling over his corpse by his spouse (after all terrorist leaders don’t have pension plans - he died a week before it was announced but Suha first wanted a payoff for legitimizing any successors) has severely crimped the financing for terrorism - there is not a one to one correspondence but I do believe that along with whatever else goes through a terrorist’s mind (including his a** after the explosives detonate) is the idea of recompense for his family/survivors and that linkage has been severed with Arafat's death thus making our mission in the mideast at large that much less dangerous (although it is still dangerous) and our troops will hopefully sustain fewer casualties.

I think that the mercenary incentive has been reduced if not almost eliminated - there is of course nothing stopping others from stepping up and offering cash bounties but the ones who were already doing it now have to find another facilitator with Arafat's death - the man himself was merely a man but he did preside over an organization that performed all sorts of dirty work for the so-called moderate Arab states using a poor and desperate underclass as human bombs.

[iconoclast]

Unfortunately, as one must expect, the enemy is reported to be planning a major wave of bombings, assassinations, and other attacks for the holidays so as to undermine the January 30 elections.

NOBODY PROMISED YOU A ROSE GARDEN!

Ooops, sorry.

The neocons did.