One needs to understand that the Beltway Democratic Party elite who have worked in party patronage jobs for most of their life are fighting among themselves for fewer and fewer Senate & House staff and committee jobs. They were desperately hoping to have a US President hand out lots of Executive Branch jobs, but Bush won. To make matters worse the WA DC Republicans are now (horrors!) requiring lobbyists to be real "Republicans" to gain access.
This means that the core financial benefit of being a loyal democratic party hack is disappearing at the federal level.
On the local level, the money being funneled in from Washington DC by the Democratic party is becoming less and less reliable. That means that the "economic and financial" benefit of being a democratic party hack, whether through a labor union, citizen activist group, or public welfare class of people is drying up as well.
Without the historic "glue" (i.e. federal money) to bind together the Democratic party membership, the Democratic party is about to implode.
I fully expect to see the Democratic party restructure itself into a "green party" and a "socialist party." One of the very surprising things about the Nader campaign was that he was saying (and many radical Dem's were listening) that the Dem's were under the control of big corporations and big labor that acted like corporations. Moveon.Org is just telling the Dem's what Nader was saying in his campaign.
Again, I expect the Democratic party to implode and become at least two other political parties in the very near future.
Excellent analysis. Let me add something for your consideration. I don't think Dean wants to be the DNC chair. I think he wants to be denied the chair by the rest of the party, so he can mobilize his base, Look...Hillary is proceedign inexorably to the nomination by annointment...if Howie wants it in 2008..he has to stop her..at least slow her down..now...so..he creates an issue..
Robert I think you are right, and the lack of competition may result in the Republicans experiencing a fissure as well as the Christians finally realize that the Republican elite NEVER intended to honestly pursue their issues.
We may have 4 parties in the very near future in a system really designed for only two.
Green and Socialist are the same thing.
yes, if the Dems go that route, then moderate patronage-oriented folks with become RINOs and hope to suck up to the GOP, making the GOP the dominant majority party (but fraught with factionalism, like the Dems were when they were the majority).
but let us not overestimate our strength here - the Dems are close to even in the statehouses owned. they own Cali and several of the big states. Bush beat kerry by only 3 points, and Bush was an incumbent.
It is not impossible for the Dems to get their act together and win in 2008.