As a MI native, I can attest with at least some sense of certainty that states like MI and PA voted for Gore and Kerry in spite of their liberalism, not because of it. Gore was basically seen as a continuation of Clinton's centrism and the economic boom. At the time, we didn't realize how liberal Gore really was. Kerry was largely an anti-Bush vote. Reagan Democrats can be very Pat Buchanan-like on the war. They don't like Iraq and were mad at Bush for taking us there. Also, they were upset about the recession. Without any Bush baggage, the GOP should do better up there next time. And Hillary is widely known as a NY liberal, not a supposed moderate like her husband.
BTW - Rudy has a better shot against Hillary than Bill Richardson.