I agree. I think Pawlenty would definitely take MN, IA, and WI and probably take OH and PA, negating FL. An alternate strategy is nominating Rudy, who would definitely taking PA and MI and probably keep FL. Two very different candidates who'd both play well in the electoral rich north, for different reasons. Of course, Rudy is a very divisive issue around Republican blogs these days.
Rudy would take NY and NJ. If you look at the NY map, any Dem who wins has to have a large margin in 4 of the NYC counties. These are the counties that elected Rudy mayor. and NJ is full of NYers.
That said, a candidate like Rudy would be at risk in states like Missouri and Iowa for example. But still, I don't see how any Dem can make up the difference losing NY and NJ with other states.
But he probably cannot get the nomination.