Posted on 12/09/2004 2:07:54 PM PST by dandelion
There is a difference between being "approved" and being "capable".
Dubya's steel tariffs were such a farce (riddled with hundreds of loopholes and exemptions) that my belief is that they were totally inconsequential one way or the other. It's actually an example of Dubya pandering to both sides at the same time and avoiding a decision based on fundamental economic principles.
HerCher--you may wish to read post #134; it's a real revelation.
Paul: please note that this platform was tossed overboard by GBush I. GWB doesn't give a rotten patoot about it, either.
Yes this is a fact from history. If American jobs and industry were worth protecting then, then why aren't they worth protecting today?
The new producers were cheaper because they were more productive labor-wise since they weren't locked into old time labor contracts and were not burdened with costly health and pension payments. Materials for an integrated mill were and are cheaper than scrap, which is why a good integrated mill located close to the sources of its materials will always be more efficient than a scrap fed mill.
There is also the little issue of sourcing scrap if you do not forge new iron. The mini-mills are only able to exist because we either import pig iron or steel slabs, or make it ourselves.
Lastly, mini-mills benefit from lower transportation costs in regions without integrated mills, because many of them have been built in areas of the country devoid of natural resources, but which still have a ready market for product. The integrated mills are mostly tied to the Great Lakes and the Quebec and Minnesota Iron Ranges, and therefore their nearby customer base of midwest auto plants and appliance/office furniture manufacturers.
You need to consider change in inventory. There's lots of steel lying on the ground awaiting purchase sometimes, because it is cheaper to keep on making it than to scale back operations.
Post 134 is a summation of why I am an old line northeast Republican.
I don't think so. I think the mills need to meet certain criteria in order for the DoD to approve them during the bidding process.
No, any mill could make the plate. It might take a few tries to meet spec. correctly, but it could be done.
The issue is that only one mill is "approved" to make the plate for the DOD for this application. Other mills also make armor plate but they aren't "approved" for this application. I know my local ISG-Coatesville mill can make armor plate, because it rolls the wide plate steel used to construct US Navy Ships.
Maybe, maybe not.
As I commented elsewhere on this thread, a lot depends on what alloy is being used.
(I'm assuming Hummer armor isn't an "ordinary" alloy, and may require a "secret recipe" of 11 herbs and spices to produce.)
Yeah, other mills may (or may not) have the right combination of furnaces and equipment to produce the stuff, but they don't have experience with the precise formula, timing and temperatures to duplicate the witch's brew exactly. Then you run into the "problem" that they're reluctant to disrupt their normal production just to crank out a small, specialized batch of some alloy that they'll never be asked to produce again.
Yeah, such things can easily be done in case of a true national emergency. But it ain't gonna happen over this temporary political flap over Hummer armor. Face it, Hummers were never intended to be as heavily armored as Abrams Tanks, yet the jack@$$es in the left-wing newsmedia will report this story as if they should be.
I agree. The thing is, with the chart provided, there doesn't appear to be any draw down of that inventory. Every year the apparent consumption is 7-10 million tons (or more) less than production+imports-exports.
Ummmmnhhh...
I don't take exception to any of your post, except indirectly--
While it's true that ore costs less than scrap steel, it also takes a LOT more capital investment to 1) get the ore; 2) transport the ore; 3) process the ore.
While union-labor may add some fraction of a penny/pound of finished goods, I think the cost of capital investment is rather significant.
The ability and capacity to assemble armored vehicles does NOT mean that the upstream suppliers also have the capacity to produce more Ceramic armor plating. I agree -- there probably is no shortage of assembly capacity of vehicles -- whatever the configuration.But I do believe there is a shortage of ceramic armor production capacity (Ceradyne is opening a new plant -- I understand there was over an 18 mo lead time to manufacture and deliver the furnaces needed for the production -- and they are not sourced in the US).
The MSM will mislead by discussing the assembly of vehicles -- but that is not where the bottleneck is...I had the opportunity to talk to some of the people at Ceradyne -- from what was related during the visit, the bonus potential and contracts are set up to run capacity at 100% 24/7. I just do not buy that if capacity existed along the entire supply chain -- we would be artificially limiting production.
One thing is perfectly clear - this issue is clear as mud. I'm still having a hard time finding last year's numbers for import export, so if you know of a link just post it to this thread.
As to the statement about import-export, I'll amend that to reflect rising import rather than majority sales for the time being, and weave in another caveat regarding the veracity of Dick Durbin's statement. That should bring the article up to speed before it "goes live". Please check the updated article on the website:
http://johnkerryquestionfairy.blogspot.com/
http://johnkerryquestionfairy.blogspot.com/2004/12/manufacturing-news-why-we-dont-have_09.html
I'm also going to put a link to this thread in an update. There's too many smart ideas on here, and this debate should open a lot of eyes. My daughter is in the military, (stateside) and I just want them to have the best equipment available. In the short term that means "get'em equipped NOW". In the long term, that means that we better find some better solutions than we have now, because this problem is only going to compound itself...
LOL! And that just adds another dimension to the procurement problem.
Just because it's "ceramic" doesn't mean that you can get the stuff from any manufacturer that normally makes pottery or fine china.
And it gets even worse with some of the sophisticated composite armors that layer different types of steel and ceramics and who knows what other exotic materials together into some kind of bonded "sandwich". With "secret recipes" like that, you're gonna almost always be stuck dealing with a lone, single vendor who has the expertise to make the stuff.
from what was related during the visit, the bonus potential and contracts are set up to run capacity at 100% 24/7.
Only a total moron (like the one we have in the WH) plans production at maximum "ideal" capacity utilization. It's a sure-fire way to shoot yourself in the foot when Murphy's Law intervenes. Excess capacity may be financially "inefficient", but it is what enables industry to quickly and smoothly respond to normal fluctuations in the marketplace (including routine "emergencies"). It doesn't matter whether we're discussing ceramic armor production, steel or electricity. The financial bozos dictating GOP policies are overly enamored with shedding "excess" production capacity, then try to pin the blame on somebody else when we get clobbered with shortages (be it ceramic armor or brownouts on the electrical grid.) Same darn situation is gonna happen with our food supply if the blasted free-traitors get their way on CAFTA and FTAA.
Idiots.
"MU, and everybody else. If China is the big threat militarily in the future why do they still have MFN status? Especially since they refuse to revalue their currency. This is akin to selling high grade steel and oil to Germany and Japan in the 30's. It makes no sense."
Because, Bill Clinton set things up for China to obtain MFN status. The powers that be, want this to take place. Let us remember that both sides of the political ideology signed on for this to come to be. Call it appeasment, or whatever. I do not have a balanced view as to why it came to past. China surely has become a power player in recent years because of it's tranformation into a high tech nation. We can no longer just brush them aside. So I guess as usual, the POTUS and both houses of congress will attempt methods of appeasment,
knowing all well that this never works. As we all know China has from day one practice a communist philosophy that dictates world domination through world wide revolution. Unlike the Russians that argued with the Chinese for years that revolution could take place from within a single or group of nations, the Chinese believe truly in world wide revolution. So unless "inwardly" they have modified their stance on this issue, It just seems to me that we are in a real pickel on this one item alone, regardless how benign they may appear in any given stage. We simply are setting them up to dominate world commerce in many respects. At least that is my humble somewhat un-educated opinion.
Perhaps this is like the mysterous 2-3 million people who deplane in the US versus those who enplane to leave for overseas.
Every year for decades, 2-3 million more people have gotten off international flights than have departed on them.
Much of the transport today is on the water of the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway, and is therefore cheap.
Transport of scrap still costs money. In fact, it costs more per mile because a lot of it is trucked, and that moving by rail is in loose carloads. Iron ore (and coal/coke) moves in more economically priced unit trains.
The processing of the ore to taconite is included in the price of taconite.
There is somewhat more capital investment for integrated mills, but there is also different capital investment as well. An electric-arc mill needs a lot of electric power infrastructure. Additionally, the integrated mill is much more easily scalable to a large size, which means economies in shipping and in material handling and site costs. The largest electric-arc mills are not over 1 million tons per year. Most integrated mills are in the 2-7 million ton per year range. The size again translates into better transportation pricing. Many integrated mills can suck up all the capacity on a 10,000 ton freight train every day. Most mini-mills would take 5 days to fill out a train that large.
Its really an apples and oranges comparison.
Try www.bea.gov
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